Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lakeville, NY
May 8, 2024 6:48 PM EDT (22:48 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:52 AM Sunset 8:21 PM Moonrise 4:55 AM Moonset 8:32 PM |
LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1008 Am Edt Wed May 8 2024
This afternoon - West winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight - West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north and diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday - North winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday night - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers likely during the day, then a chance of showers Friday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday - Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 46 degrees.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 46 degrees.
LOZ005
No data
No data
FXUS61 KBUF 082223 AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 623 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
SYNOPSIS
Lingering showers will wind down through the evening east of Lake Ontario, otherwise dry weather returns later tonight, then it'll be an unsettled weather pattern Thursday through the weekend with a series of low pressure systems crossing the region.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Winds will continue to come down with breezy conditions lasting through early to mid evening. Dry weather is found from the Finger Lakes westward early this evening. However, final shortwave now moving across eastern Lake Ontario will keep lingering showers going there into this evening, with dry weather returning for the entire area later tonight.
The shortwave trough will move east of the region tonight with lingering showers ending by midnight. Associated cold front will move across the area resulting in mostly cloudy skies however rain- free conditions will prevail for the rest of the night. Overnight lows will range through the 40s.
Latest guidance is slower and further south with a convectively augmented wave of low pressure on Thursday. It now appears it will remain rain-free Thursday morning, with increasing chances for showers across western New York late Thursday afternoon. Some showers will likely move across the area Thursday night, but these will be weaker producing nominal rainfall amounts. This also will leave our area firmly in a stable northeast surface flow, with little to no risk for thunderstorms. Following this, Thursday will be a much cooler day with highs ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
High confidence for BELOW normal temperatures during this period...
particularly by day when the mercury is only forecast to reach into the upper 50s to near 60. That will be a solid 5 to 8 degrees below mid May normals
Meanwhile
it will generally be unsettled with perturbations in the mean longwave trough supporting some showers and thunderstorms
As for the details
A shortwave will drive across the Lower Great Lakes on Friday...as a wavy sfc frontal boundary will stretch across the Tennessee valley to the Mid Atlantic region. The resulting DPVA and minimal height falls will couple with a deep cyclonic flow and wealth of moisture to warrant chc to likely pops over the far western counties and cat pops over the Finger Lakes region and portions of the Srn Tier where a change will be made in the wording from showers to rain.
There could be several hours of widespread/steady rain for that area
Finally
H5 temps of -20c will enhance the instability aloft...the mid levels will be stable enough to preclude the risk for thunder.
A weak shortwave ridge will scoot across the forecast area Friday night
While spotty showers may persist east of Lake Ontario
this scenario will bring an end to the pcpn over the western counties.
Saturday...another robust shortwave will drop through the longwave trough and pass just to the west and south of our forecast area...
along with a loosely organized sfc reflection. Unlike the previous shortwave passage the day before (Friday)...this will focus the associated forcing over the western counties. Will raise pops for the Srn Tier to categorical...but being largely convective (H5 ~ -24c)...will maintain the wording of showers. The mid levels will be more unstable as well...so will add slgt/chc wording for tstorms for the western counties. Given the mean trough axis will cross the region Saturday night...will maintain at least chc pops for showers.
A nominal 70kt H5 jetlet will dig into the base of the aforementioned longwave trough over the region on Sunday and encourage it to close off across New England. The slow exit of the trough will keep at least scattered showers in place...particularly over the Finger Lakes and Eastern Lake Ontario regions. Low single digit H85 temps will keep the cool weather in place with the mercury struggling to make it out of the 50s.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A closed low and associated deep longwave trough centered in the vcnty of Hudson Bay at the start of this period will rotate out across Quebec during the course of the week. This will result in height rises across the Lower Great Lakes that will lead to temperatures finally returning to ABOVE normal levels.
While this general pattern will favor fair weather for the majority of the period...another shortwave will push a cold front through the region later Monday and Monday night. This will result in scattered showers and a minimal risk for thunderstorms.
Dry weather should prevail with a passing shortwave ridge Tuesday and Tuesday night...then energy in the southern stream will help to support a storm system that should pass to our south on Wednesday.
Being on the northern fringe of this system...there will be the potential for showers.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR flight conditions for areas south of Lake Ontario, with areas of IFR/MVFR CIGS and lingering rain showers east of Lake Ontario this evening. Gusty winds will continue to come down through the evening.
Increasing clouds and lowering CIGS tonight across all of western and northcentral NY as low level moisture increases following the passage of a cold front. No precipitation, but this will lower CIGS to mainly MVFR with areas of IFR across higher terrain tonight.
Low clouds will gradually dissipate during Thursday, but mid and high clouds will expand across the area from the south. Also a chance of showers late in the day.
Outlook...
Thursday night and Friday...Mainly MVFR. Showers likely and MVFR stratus.
Saturday through Monday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers.
MARINE
Winds and wave action will continue to come down on Lake Erie where Small Craft Advisories remain in effect into this evening.
Elsewhere, choppy...but sub-advisory conditions can be expected.
Winds will shift to the northeast and diminish tonight, with a general northeast flow through Thursday night. This will result in choppy conditions along the south shores of the Lakes, with conditions approaching advisory criteria on Lake Erie.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040-041.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 623 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
SYNOPSIS
Lingering showers will wind down through the evening east of Lake Ontario, otherwise dry weather returns later tonight, then it'll be an unsettled weather pattern Thursday through the weekend with a series of low pressure systems crossing the region.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Winds will continue to come down with breezy conditions lasting through early to mid evening. Dry weather is found from the Finger Lakes westward early this evening. However, final shortwave now moving across eastern Lake Ontario will keep lingering showers going there into this evening, with dry weather returning for the entire area later tonight.
The shortwave trough will move east of the region tonight with lingering showers ending by midnight. Associated cold front will move across the area resulting in mostly cloudy skies however rain- free conditions will prevail for the rest of the night. Overnight lows will range through the 40s.
Latest guidance is slower and further south with a convectively augmented wave of low pressure on Thursday. It now appears it will remain rain-free Thursday morning, with increasing chances for showers across western New York late Thursday afternoon. Some showers will likely move across the area Thursday night, but these will be weaker producing nominal rainfall amounts. This also will leave our area firmly in a stable northeast surface flow, with little to no risk for thunderstorms. Following this, Thursday will be a much cooler day with highs ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
High confidence for BELOW normal temperatures during this period...
particularly by day when the mercury is only forecast to reach into the upper 50s to near 60. That will be a solid 5 to 8 degrees below mid May normals
Meanwhile
it will generally be unsettled with perturbations in the mean longwave trough supporting some showers and thunderstorms
As for the details
A shortwave will drive across the Lower Great Lakes on Friday...as a wavy sfc frontal boundary will stretch across the Tennessee valley to the Mid Atlantic region. The resulting DPVA and minimal height falls will couple with a deep cyclonic flow and wealth of moisture to warrant chc to likely pops over the far western counties and cat pops over the Finger Lakes region and portions of the Srn Tier where a change will be made in the wording from showers to rain.
There could be several hours of widespread/steady rain for that area
Finally
H5 temps of -20c will enhance the instability aloft...the mid levels will be stable enough to preclude the risk for thunder.
A weak shortwave ridge will scoot across the forecast area Friday night
While spotty showers may persist east of Lake Ontario
this scenario will bring an end to the pcpn over the western counties.
Saturday...another robust shortwave will drop through the longwave trough and pass just to the west and south of our forecast area...
along with a loosely organized sfc reflection. Unlike the previous shortwave passage the day before (Friday)...this will focus the associated forcing over the western counties. Will raise pops for the Srn Tier to categorical...but being largely convective (H5 ~ -24c)...will maintain the wording of showers. The mid levels will be more unstable as well...so will add slgt/chc wording for tstorms for the western counties. Given the mean trough axis will cross the region Saturday night...will maintain at least chc pops for showers.
A nominal 70kt H5 jetlet will dig into the base of the aforementioned longwave trough over the region on Sunday and encourage it to close off across New England. The slow exit of the trough will keep at least scattered showers in place...particularly over the Finger Lakes and Eastern Lake Ontario regions. Low single digit H85 temps will keep the cool weather in place with the mercury struggling to make it out of the 50s.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A closed low and associated deep longwave trough centered in the vcnty of Hudson Bay at the start of this period will rotate out across Quebec during the course of the week. This will result in height rises across the Lower Great Lakes that will lead to temperatures finally returning to ABOVE normal levels.
While this general pattern will favor fair weather for the majority of the period...another shortwave will push a cold front through the region later Monday and Monday night. This will result in scattered showers and a minimal risk for thunderstorms.
Dry weather should prevail with a passing shortwave ridge Tuesday and Tuesday night...then energy in the southern stream will help to support a storm system that should pass to our south on Wednesday.
Being on the northern fringe of this system...there will be the potential for showers.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR flight conditions for areas south of Lake Ontario, with areas of IFR/MVFR CIGS and lingering rain showers east of Lake Ontario this evening. Gusty winds will continue to come down through the evening.
Increasing clouds and lowering CIGS tonight across all of western and northcentral NY as low level moisture increases following the passage of a cold front. No precipitation, but this will lower CIGS to mainly MVFR with areas of IFR across higher terrain tonight.
Low clouds will gradually dissipate during Thursday, but mid and high clouds will expand across the area from the south. Also a chance of showers late in the day.
Outlook...
Thursday night and Friday...Mainly MVFR. Showers likely and MVFR stratus.
Saturday through Monday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers.
MARINE
Winds and wave action will continue to come down on Lake Erie where Small Craft Advisories remain in effect into this evening.
Elsewhere, choppy...but sub-advisory conditions can be expected.
Winds will shift to the northeast and diminish tonight, with a general northeast flow through Thursday night. This will result in choppy conditions along the south shores of the Lakes, with conditions approaching advisory criteria on Lake Erie.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040-041.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY | 30 mi | 48 min | 64°F | |||||
| RPRN6 - Rochester, NY | 30 mi | 48 min | WNW 12G | 61°F | 29.67 | |||
| BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY | 63 mi | 48 min | W 15G | 62°F | 60°F | 29.65 | 51°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KDSV DANSVILLE MUNI,NY | 19 sm | 54 min | WNW 12G27 | 10 sm | Overcast | 73°F | 45°F | 36% | 29.64 | |
| KROC GREATER ROCHESTER INTL,NY | 19 sm | 54 min | WNW 12G23 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 64°F | 54°F | 68% | 29.64 | |
| KIUA CANANDAIGUA,NY | 20 sm | 13 min | WNW 09G19 | 10 sm | Overcast | 63°F | 50°F | 63% | 29.65 |
Buffalo, NY,
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