Monday, September27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Saugatuck, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:36AMSunset 7:34PM Monday September 27, 2021 11:42 PM EDT (03:42 UTC) Moonrise 10:12PMMoonset 1:17PM Illumination 58% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ874 Expires:202109280915;;287134 Fzus63 Kmkx 280158 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 858 Pm Cdt Mon Sep 27 2021 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. Gusty north to northeast winds begin to diminish overnight as high pressure of 30.1 inches builds in over lake michigan. Lighter winds will continue through at least mid week as the high shifts only a little eastward and strengthens a bit. Southerly winds may pick up later in the week as the pressure gradient tightens on the western edge of the high. && lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-280915- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 858 pm cdt Mon sep 27 2021 sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south...
Rest of tonight..North winds to 30 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt late this evening, then becoming northeast 10 to 20 kt overnight. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft subsiding to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 kt veering to southeast. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 kt becoming east. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 kt becoming east 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thursday night..East winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southeast. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
LMZ874


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saugatuck, MI
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location: 42.84, -86.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 272333 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 733 PM EDT Mon Sep 27 2021

LATEST UPDATE . Aviation

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 330 PM EDT Mon Sep 27 2021

- Overall warmer than normal / no precipitation through Friday

- Transition to a wetter yet still warm pattern beyond Friday

DISCUSSION. (This evening through next Monday) Issued at 330 PM EDT Mon Sep 27 2021

- Overall warmer than normal / no precipitation through Friday

It is not at all unusual at this time of year (early fall) to have a blocking pattern provide an extended period of dry weather. Typically we have a Hudson Bay High that stalls over this area. We are usually on the southern edge of this surface high. This is clearly the case this week. This will keep us around 5 to 10 degrees warmer than normal through the week. The risk of rainfall is near zero through the week (until Friday anyway).

On a larger scale, we have an omega block over North America this week. There is a closed upper low over New England and another closed upper low in the Gulf of Alaska, with a downstream though over the Rockies. Between the two, we have steep but narrow upper ridge over the central CONUS. This will be a very stable pattern this week. We remain on the east side of the steep upper ridge. That will continue to bring cooler (but not cold air) from central Canada into this area through the week.

What risk there is for rain would be this evening and early tonight, in the I-69 area. Please don't hold your breath for that to actually happen. We have the back- door cold front on the leading edge of this first such surface high, coming through this evening into early tonight. The air is to dry for shower with this front. There is some cape (1000 to 1500 j/kg of surface based cape) to create thunderstorms, but the CIN is over 250 j/kg due the dry air below 500 mb. The frontal dynamics will likely not be strong enough to overcome the mid level dry air this evening. I do no see showers developing on this front as it moves through the area early tonight. There may be a few mid or high clouds with the front but I do not expect a lot more than that. There may also be some shallow, lower clouds over the eastern CWA (see aviation discussion) just behind the front but even that would not last long.

Since this air is coming from central Canada, but not northern Canada or the North Pole, it is not overly cold so we will remain warmer than normal but not dramatically warm, through the week.

We get a second such surface high coming through toward the end of the week. That will help to keep it from warming all that much at the end of the week. This too will be a dry cold front. For this area to get really warm we would need to be on the west side of the upper level ridge, but we are not, so we will continue to have north flow over us through the week. That will keep our highs mostly in the 70s (5 to 10 degrees warmer than normal). Lows should range from the mid 40s north to 50s south (also 5 to 10 degree above normal).

- Transition to a wetter yet still warm pattern beyond Friday

Late this week or early next week, a Pacific origin shortwave will finally break down the current upper ridge over the central CONUS. That will result in another even larger upper high to form in south and central Canada early next week. The Pacific system is likely to close off an upper low south of us. The question for us is how close do we get to the upper low closed off to our south. If just may wander farther north over time and bring a long period of wet weather to this area. On the other hand it could just stay south of here through next week an we would remain dry. No matter what happens with that we do not get cold air from the northern stream so it will not get truly cold for this time of year.

As the time gets closer we will be better able to define when and if it will rain here late this coming weekend or during the following week. About 1/2 of the GFS (30) and ECMWF (50) ensembles have some rain for us next week. NONE OF THE 80 ensemble members have rain for this area, this week.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 733 PM EDT Mon Sep 27 2021

VFR will persist through the forecast period with no aviation concerns to note. Winds will shift northerly through this evening then easterly overnight into early Tuesday.

MARINE. Issued at 330 PM EDT Mon Sep 27 2021

The passage of the cold front will bring a 3 hour window for small craft and beach hazard impacts north of Grand Haven early tonight. So we will keep the headlines going as is for now.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . Beach Hazards Statement until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for MIZ037-043- 050.

LM . Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ847>849.



SYNOPSIS . WDM DISCUSSION . WDM AVIATION . Thielke MARINE . WDM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45029 19 mi52 min NE 9.7 G 14 64°F 63°F3 ft1011.4 hPa58°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 23 mi54 min NNE 8 G 12 64°F 63°F1011 hPa59°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 24 mi42 min N 19 G 23 65°F 66°F1011.5 hPa (+1.2)61°F
45161 28 mi42 min NNE 14 G 18 60°F 3 ft1012.7 hPa (+2.3)
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 31 mi32 min ENE 14 G 17 62°F 1012.5 hPa52°F
45168 34 mi42 min N 5.8 G 9.7 63°F 65°F2 ft1011.5 hPa (+1.2)59°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 35 mi42 min 8.9 G 9.9 63°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 52 mi42 min N 6 G 8.9 65°F 1012.5 hPa

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI29 mi49 minNNE 710.00 miFair65°F59°F81%1011.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBIV

Wind History from BIV (wind in knots)
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--SW13SW10SW13
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W11W9W11W8W63W4W3W4NW3N7
1 day agoW4CalmW9W6CalmCalmS3S3S3S3SW10SW16SW15
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2 days agoS11
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NW7W4NW6N5CalmW3CalmW7W12W12
G20
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W11SW13SW7SW5S3W5W6

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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