Sunrise 6:33 AM   Sunset 8:49 PM Moonrise 3:28 AM   Moonset 2:33 PM

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LMZ874 Expires:202405032130;;549443 Fzus63 Kmkx 031402 Glflm
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 902 am cdt Fri may 3 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
Synopsis -
high pressure of 30.1 inches and lighter surface winds are expected later this afternoon and tonight. Some low level moisture returns on Saturday ahead of a cold front. This front will move across lake michigan on Saturday evening, before high pressure around 30.1 inches again moves into the region for Sunday. No precipitation for Saturday night and Sunday. Winds are expected to be light to breezy across lake michigan through the upcoming weekend.
lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-032130- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 902 am cdt Fri may 3 2024
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south - .
Rest of today - Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt veering to northeast 10 to 20 kt. Areas of fog through last morning. Slight chance of rain showers and Thunderstorms through mid morning. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Tonight - Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming east. Waves 1 to 3 ft subsiding to 1 to 2 ft. Saturday - East winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northeast. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Saturday night - Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Sunday - North winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Sunday night - Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft. Monday - East winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Tuesday - Southeast winds 15 to 25 kt becoming south. Showers. Waves 3 to 5 ft.

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KGRR 031913 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 313 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing Chance for Showers/Storms Later Saturday into Saturday night

- Dry end of the weekend

- Many chances for rain next week



DISCUSSION
Issued at 231 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

- Increasing Chance for Showers/Storms Later Saturday into Saturday night

Southerly winds ahead of an approaching cold front will draw up moisture from the south Saturday into Saturday night. Instability increases as well later Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, but overall remains weak. Aloft some upper level divergence is seen Saturday night over the CWA so that may enhance the lift.
Thus the combination of moisture, lift and instability will likely lead to showers and a few storms. Ensemble QPF values, while low, have been trending up with the precipitation for this period.

- Dry end of the weekend

High pressure over the upper Mississippi Valley will produce plenty of sunshine Sunday. Highs will climb to a couple of degree either side of 70.

- Many chances for rain next week

The persistent upper trough over the western US is progd to cut off over the northern High Plains during the middle of the week. The result will be several short waves that move in our direction and bring chances for showers and storms.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night will be a time frame that will see increased chances for precipitation. An occluded front will lift north toward Lower MI Tuesday afternoon and this will produce some showers/storms. Present indications are that the strongest instability will remain south of the state. However, that could changed this far out. SPC has already highlighted areas to the southwest of the state for the potential of severe storms.

Another chance of showers/storms will come Thursday and Thursday night, when the surface low over the northern Plains moves east.
Accompanying short waves and a feed of moisture rich air from the south will spur convective development during this time.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 136 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

A cold front is moving slowly across Lower MI this afternoon. A line of showers has developed along it between GRR and LAN. This line should clear LAN/JXN by 21z. Cigs are generally MVFR but a few pockets of IFR exist. Look for improvement by the end of the afternoon when VFR conditions will develop.

Models show a fairly strong signal for stratus to develop over Canada tonight and move east in easterly flow. We'll see IFR develop overnight at LAN/JXN and then spread west and lift a bit as it approaches GRR/MKG.

MARINE
Issued at 231 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Southerly flow will be on the increase Saturday into Saturday night as a front moves in from the west. This will be warm air advection and overall the values are expected to remain under 20 knots. Thus we don't plan on needing headlines a this time.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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