Monday, October25, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Union Springs, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:31AMSunset 6:09PM Monday October 25, 2021 4:51 PM EDT (20:51 UTC) Moonrise 8:10PMMoonset 11:25AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:202110251530;;243620 Fzus51 Kbuf 251047 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 647 Am Edt Mon Oct 25 2021 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-251530- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 647 Am Edt Mon Oct 25 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through late Tuesday night...
Today..East winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northeast to 30 knots. Rain early, then just a chance of showers from mid morning on. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 7 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Tonight..East winds to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 25 knots. Occasional rain and drizzle. Areas of fog overnight. Waves 7 to 10 feet subsiding to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Tuesday..East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northeast. Patchy fog. Occasional rain and drizzle. Waves 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Showers. Waves 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet . Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 63 degrees, and the central lake ontario buoy water temperature is 59 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Union Springs, NY
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location: 42.85, -76.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 252028 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 428 PM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021

SYNOPSIS. A strong low pressure system brings periods of rain tonight through Tuesday night. Rain could be heavy enough for flash flooding in northeast PA and the Catskills of NY. Dry and seasonably mild weather returns Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. 330 pm update .

Main concern is on the soaking rain across the entire area tonight to Tuesday night. 1 to 2 inches of rain in the southeast half with possibly higher amounts in the southern Catskills and Poconos. This area will have lift into the mountains from the southeast. Around an inch is expected in the Finger Lakes and western Mohawk River in NY. Bands of heavier rain and even a few thunderstorms are possible tonight.

Clouds are spreading east now but rain will hold off until this evening. The warm front hung up along the NYS thruway for most of today but left the rest of the area in the warm sector with temperatures around 70. A strong cut-off low over the Ohio Valley is slowly moving east. The surface low will weaken as it crosses PA and the coastal low takes over Tuesday. The upper level low will become stacked with the coastal low and keep affecting our weather into Wednesday funneling rain into the area.

Rain moves in from the west this evening. With the warmth there is some instability. Bulk wind shear is moderate. Forcing will be weak and towards midnight. The best moisture will be in NEPA where SPC put us in a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms. Thunderstorms will have heavy rain but should be moving fast enough so that flash flooding if any will be minor and isolated tonight. The flash flood watch starts at midnight.

The rain becomes widespread tonight and continues through Tuesday. The rain tapers off late Tuesday and Tuesday night as the low moves slowly east south of Cape Cod. Rainfall amounts will be steady and mostly under a quarter inch an hour. The best chance of flooding will be during the day Tuesday. River flooding is also possible in the headwaters of the upper Delaware. With the lag this would happen Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Temperatures on Tuesday will be noticeably cooler with highs only topping out in the 50s. Lows Tuesday night will be in the 40s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. 310 PM Update .

Much drier conditions for Wednesday and Thursday with ridging building into the region. Mostly cloudy skies Wednesday morning, will give way to partly cloudy skies and some sunshine by the afternoon. Temperatures for both Wednesday and Thursday will be near average to slightly above for this time of year with mid 50s to near 60 across the region for highs and lows in the mid 30s to near 40. Our next system will start to push in from the southwest Thursday night, but at this time it appears that any rainfall should hold off until Friday, with just increasing clouds expected through Friday morning.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. 320 PM Update .

The brief ridging and dry conditions that we see mid week breaks down for Friday and the weekend. Low pressure system will track northeastward through the Ohio Valley and into our region Friday. There remains some timing differences between the models at this time, but a blend of ensemble and deterministic guidance has rain spreading northeast across the area by Friday afternoon/evening. This system will slowly pass through the region Saturday with periods of showers expected. By Sunday morning, surface ridging will start to build in with the low exiting to the northeast. However, cool NW flow will bring moisture from the lakes and some lake enhanced showers may be possible during the day Sunday. For the start of next week, ensembles are showing some cooler air pushing into the region, with near average to slightly below average values expected at this time.

AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. 140 pm update .

VFR this afternoon into evening. The warm front has slowed to be near SYR/RME with IFR cigs just north of it. All sites will fall to MVFR cigs/vsby as the rain comes in 3 to 5z, then to IFR 7 to 10z. IFR will continue into the afternoon with a slow moving cold front and light to moderate rain.

East winds at 5 to 10 kts at SYR/RME. Rest of sites south wind 5 to 10 kts becoming east at 5 kts tonight continuing through Tuesday.

Outlook .

Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday . Persistent rain showers with likely restrictions.

Wednesday night through Thursday . Mainly VFR.

Friday through Saturday . Restrictions likely with rain.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Flash Flood Watch from midnight EDT tonight through Tuesday evening for PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072. NY . Flash Flood Watch from midnight EDT tonight through Tuesday evening for NYZ045-046-055>057-062.

SYNOPSIS . TAC NEAR TERM . TAC SHORT TERM . MPK LONG TERM . MPK AVIATION . TAC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 43 mi52 min NE 13G20 53°F 1008.4 hPa (-0.9)50°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 56 mi52 min ENE 22G26 55°F 1009.5 hPa (-1.0)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 57 mi52 min 54°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Penn Yan, Penn Yan Airport, NY24 mi59 minVar 69.00 miA Few Clouds58°F53°F84%1008 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPEO

Wind History from PEO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr5SE8SE6S50E3SE6E3E4E5033000N43NE4N86N856
1 day ago--000SE30000S5S3S4S3S3SW353646S94SW8SW4
2 days agoN7N45NW3--4SE50055SW3S4S4SE43S3S34550N5W7

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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