Thursday, September23, 2021
Privacy Policy
L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Crystal Beach, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 7:07PM Thursday September 23, 2021 8:30 PM EDT (00:30 UTC) Moonrise 7:33PMMoonset 8:29AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1037 Am Edt Thu Sep 23 2021
Rest of today..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. A chance of waterspouts in the afternoon. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south 5 to 15 knots. A chance of waterspouts in the evening. A chance of showers in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of waterspouts Saturday night. Showers likely Saturday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. A chance of waterspouts. A chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Monday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of waterspouts during the day. A chance of showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 43 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:202109232100;;058353 FZUS51 KBUF 231437 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1037 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-232100-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Crystal Beach, NY
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 42.85, -77.26     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KBUF 232307 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 707 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will cross Central NY this evening, with the steadiest and heaviest rain ending over the eastern Lake Ontario region later this evening. Much cooler and drier weather will return for most areas on Friday, except northeast of Lake Erie where some lake effect rain showers will impact the Niagara Frontier. Another cold front will then bring a chance of more showers on late Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/. A closed off and vertically stacked surface/mid level low will move slowly northward across Lake Huron overnight. Meanwhile, an associated cold front over Central NY and the eastern Lake Ontario region will continue to move slowly east tonight. Strong moisture transport/low-level frontogenesis and dynamics in form of upper diffluence will support a swath of moderate to heavy rain along the slowly advancing cold front. 12hr totals in the eastern Lake Ontario region through 06z/2AM tonight likely will top out at 1.25 to 1.75 inches with most of that occurring through this evening. So far the rain has been spread out, longer duration enough to mainly result in rises in smaller creeks and rivers, and some ponding on roadways but the risk of widespread flooding remains low.

Farther west, a mid level dry slot will keep most areas dry through much of tonight, with just a few sprinkles or spotty light showers this evening across Western NY near the leading edge of deeper wrap around moisture and forcing downstream of the closed low.

Steady rain will exit east of Lewis County shortly after midnight tonight which will leave the vast majority of the area rain-free. The exception is the Niagara Frontier where a band of lake effect rain over Lake Erie and the Canadian shore will move into areas near the Niagara River very late tonight. Persistent winds will limit radiational cooling and potential for fog, especially across the Niagara Frontier where winds will gust to 30 mph near the lakeshores. Even with limited radiational cooling, the cooler air mass will support low temperatures from the mid 40s to lower 50s.

On Friday, a band of lake effect rain will move southeast across the Niagara Frontier including the Buffalo area in the morning. Mesoscale model guidance is suggesting this band may be quite organized for a few hours in the morning with strong synoptic support from the tail of the mid level trough axis superimposed on lake effect processes. This may produce some downpours for the morning commute in Buffalo and the Northtowns. This band of lake effect rain will weaken by midday as better synoptic scale support and moisture move off, and diurnal mixing disrupts lake effect convergence.

Eventually could see some lake effect at east end of Lake Ontario as well, but less over-water instability and not as favorable moisture profile should result in less showers than downstream of Lake Erie. A breezy day near the lakeshores (gusts to 30 mph common) and cool with a mix of sun and clouds for all areas with temperatures in the afternoon reaching lower to mid 60s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. Friday Night an opening upper level low will be advancing across James Bay, taking a plume of moisture with it. This moisture, combined with initial 850 hPa temperatures of +4 to +5C will generate lake effect rain showers through the Saint Lawrence Valley. Lake effect will be quick to end with warming in the mid levels and ambient moisture decreasing.

Thereafter the remainder of the night will be dry with subtle ridging of high pressure passing across our region, as well as our region lying between two moisture plumes. It will be cool Friday night with interior regions dropping down into the lower 40s.

The next upper level low continues to have a spread among the operational model solutions, with how far south it drops across the Great lakes region, as well as begin and end time of when it closes off from the main flow. This results in timing issues for synoptic rain showers, as well as placement of lake effect rain bands within the cool airmass aloft. Rain showers ahead of a cold front will likely push into WNY through the afternoon hours of Saturday, with the area of rain transitioning to more lake effect Saturday Night east of both lakes as temperatures at 850 hPa drop down to +4 to +6C.

Will then have chance PoPs Sunday and Sunday Night with the upper level low nearby . though placement of this feature is still with a fair amount of uncertainty. Greatest certainty for rain showers will be east of the lakes (lake effect rain/upslope) with a lower probability for showers across the Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes region. It will be cooler on Sunday with highs only in the low to mid 60s . which are a degree or two below normal.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. With cold air advection behind the earlier passing cold front, the potential for lake effect/enhanced showers will continue downwind of the lakes into Monday. Some guidance is split on the pattern overall, with some guidance pushing another front through Monday afternoon, causing more widespread showers, while some other guidance is more purely a lake response. Overall, with a trough over the region into Monday night, that potential for showers will be there. For now, considering model spread, going with widespread slight chance for most of the area on Monday, with chance POPs downwind of the lakes with 850H temps around 5C.

As ridging increases behind the departing trough, showers will taper off from west to east. Slight chance POPs will linger for the southeastern portions of the area into Tuesday, generally from near the NY/PA border through the Northern Finger Lakes and the Western Adirondacks. With a Canadian high pressure building in from the north, mostly dry and quiet weather is expected for Wednesday into Thursday.

Temperatures will be near, to a few degrees above normal for the long term period. Daytime highs will be in the mid 60s to around 70 from the higher terrain to the lower elevations respectively.

AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. A band of moderate to heavy rain will continue to move slowly east across the eastern Lake Ontario region this evening, with rain ending from west to east through the first half of the night. Areas of MVFR and local IFR will continue in pockets of heavy rain this evening, with improvement to mainly VFR overnight. Farther west, VFR will prevail most of the night with a few pockets of MVFR CIGS across higher terrain.

A band of lake effect rain over Lake Erie and along the north shore of Lake Ontario in Canada overnight will move eastward as boundary layer flow veers from SSW to SW. This will bring a band of lake effect rain into the Niagara Frontier including KIAG and KBUF late tonight and Friday morning. Expect conditions to drop to at least MVFR within the band of rain, with some potential for a few hours of IFR around 12Z Friday when the band is strongest. This band of lake effect rain will break up and diminish in the afternoon, with most areas returning to VFR.

Outlook .

Saturday and Sunday . MVFR/VFR with a chance of showers. Monday and Tuesday . VFR.

MARINE. Winds shifting to the SSW behind the cold front and eventually to the SW. Cooler temperatures behind the front will allow for better mixing, so continued to go on higher side of model guidance for winds behind the front tonight through Friday. Winds and waves have supported hoisting Small Craft Advisory headlines for the Upper Niagara River and Lake Erie tonight through Friday. Small craft headlines are also in effect for the northeast end of Lake Ontario late tonight through Friday.

There's a risk for waterspouts tonight through Friday night. The best chance for waterspouts will likely be over Lake Erie late tonight through Friday morning along the band of lake effect rain, where convergence and low level vorticity will be maximized, with a strong source of ascent within lake effect showers to stretch low level vorticity.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for LOZ045.



SYNOPSIS . Apffel/Hitchcock NEAR TERM . Hitchcock/JLA SHORT TERM . Thomas LONG TERM . SW AVIATION . Hitchcock MARINE . Apffel/Hitchcock/JLA


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 34 mi30 min SW 7 G 11 65°F 1012.2 hPa (+2.7)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 35 mi60 min 64°F
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 58 mi60 min S 11 G 12 65°F 1010 hPa62°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
Last
24hr
SE10
G16
SE6
G13
SE8
G14
SE6
G16
SE8
G19
SE6
G13
SE7
G13
SE9
G13
SE6
G11
SE7
G14
SE6
G11
SE5
G11
SE5
G11
SE5
G11
SE5
G9
S6
G9
E6
G11
SE5
G12
S7
S7
G10
S6
G9
S7
S8
G11
S10
1 day
ago
SE5
G9
S13
SE9
G17
SE12
G17
SE9
G15
SE11
G14
SE10
G16
S10
G17
SE5
G9
SE4
G9
SE8
G13
SE4
G8
SE9
G17
SE8
G14
SE9
G17
S9
G16
E4
G10
SE11
G18
SE10
G16
SE6
G13
SE9
G12
SE8
G14
SE6
G16
SE9
G15
2 days
ago
SE9
G12
SE8
G14
SE7
G17
SE12
G18
SE11
G17
SE10
G15
SE15
G20
S15
G21
SE15
G21
SE17
G25
S17
G28
SE16
G24
S16
G23
SE11
G20
S14
G20
S17
G23
S16
G24
S11
G18
S20
G29
S17
G24
S11
G20
SE11
G14
S9
G13
S8
G12

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Penn Yan, Penn Yan Airport, NY18 mi37 minSSW 1010.00 miOvercast62°F48°F60%1012 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPEO

Wind History from PEO (wind in knots)
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
Last 24hrSE9
G15
SE13
G22
SE13
G21
SE12
G23
SE14
G24
SE11
G23
S11
G21
S7SE6SE9SE3SW9
G15
SW9SW6S4S8S5SW5S7S6SW10
G16
W11
G17
SW11
G17
SW10
1 day agoS86S7S7S8S5S8SE4S6S6S8SE6S7S7SE7S9SE7SE5SE13
G22
SE8
G18
SE14
G22
S10
G20
SE8
G20
S8
2 days agoS8S8S10S9S9S8S7S8S8S9
G18
S8S10
G18
S9
G22
S11
G22
S14
G22
S15
G24
SW13
G20
S15
G20
S14
G22
S9
G23
S12
G22
S9
G20
S9
G19
S7

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
       (on/off)   Help Weather Map
wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station




Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE.