Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Buffalo, NY
May 5, 2024 2:32 AM EDT (06:32 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:01 AM Sunset 8:22 PM Moonrise 3:42 AM Moonset 4:37 PM |
LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 405 Pm Edt Sat May 4 2024
Tonight - South winds around 10 knots. A chance of showers late this evening. Showers likely after midnight, then periods of rain late.
Sunday - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Periods of rain in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sunday night - Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. A chance of showers in the evening.
Monday - Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming west. Mostly Sunny.
Monday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. Mainly clear.
Tuesday - East winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Showers likely Tuesday night.
Wednesday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day, then a chance of showers Wednesday night.
Thursday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. Showers likely.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off buffalo is 51 degrees.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off buffalo is 51 degrees.
LEZ005
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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 050502 AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 102 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024
SYNOPSIS
A wave of low pressure will move from the Ohio Valley across the eastern Great Lakes overnight through Sunday, bringing a round of widespread rain to the region. The rain will gradually taper off to scattered showers from west to east Sunday, before ending entirely Sunday night. High pressure will then build into the Great Lakes Monday with a return to dry weather.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Radar imagery showing a solid area of widespread rain moving north across the Genesee Valley, Finger Lakes, and Central NY early this morning. This area of rain will continue to overspread the eastern Lake Ontario region over the next few hours. Rain across Western NY is more intermittent, but expect coverage to expand through the wee hours of the morning as another batch of deeper moisture and forcing moves north out of northwestern PA.
A dreary night on tap as a sharp mid-level shortwave trough slides out of the Ohio Valley overnight and across the eastern Great Lakes through Sunday morning. Deepening moisture and broad scale ascent along the system's strengthening LLJ will cause rain to overspread the forecast area from south to north. While a few widely scattered showers associated with a weaker shortwave linger east of Lake Ontario, the more widespread rain will eventually move into the region in the second half of the night. As it does so, the LLJ will begin to approach its peak expected strength at around 45kts, which will likely cause precip across portions of the North Country to be locally heavier compared to surrounding areas. Otherwise, lowering cloud bases may intersect the higher terrain across the Southern Tier and North Country, leading to patchy fog through Sunday morning.
Owed to a stiff southeasterly surface wind, temperatures tonight will average warmer than normal with mainly upper 40s to low 50s for lows. Across far western NY and along the Lake Erie shoreline, temperatures will be a bit warmer, likely only dipping into the mid/upper 50s.
The system's 850H jet will begin to wane in strength and slowly slide east into central NY Sunday morning. Rain coverage will taper off across the western zones in tandem though remain persistent east of Lake Ontario for most of the day. By Sunday afternoon however, an upstream cold front currently over the central Great Lakes will begin approach western NY. The additional forcing combined with waning diurnal instability should cause an additional round of showers to arrive across from the far western counties by mid to late afternoon. While poor diurnal timing, weak deep-layer shear and a wealth of cloud cover will preclude stronger or more widespread thunderstorm development, 300-500J of SBCAPE building ahead of the front could still allow for a few rumbles of thunder and/or locally heavy downpours.
Rainfall totals overnight through early Sunday afternoon are expected to be greatest east of Rochester and across the North Country, generally averaging 0.5-1" in these areas, potentially exceeding an inch across far eastern Oswego and southern Lewis counties. Rainfall amounts under half an inch elsewhere are expected to the west.
In regards to temperatures...A large spread in daytime highs is expected Sunday, owed to the expected steady rains across the eastern zones during the day. Temperatures will top out mainly in the mid to upper 60s across far western NY and the Niagara Frontier east to Rochester. Across the interior Southern Tier, eastern Finger Lakes, and North Country, a range of 50s is expected.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A mid level trough will slide across Hudson Bay and into northern Quebec Sunday night...with its associated modest surface low pivoting a weak trailing cold front across our area.
This boundary will generate some additional scattered showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm or two as it passes through our region. The greatest pcpn potential will be found across the North Country... which will lie in closest proximity to the base of the supporting upper level trough and where the showers may become briefly more numerous during the late evening and early overnight hours. Otherwise expect fairly cloudy skies Sunday evening to give way to some limited clearing across far western New York overnight...with lows ranging from the upper 40s to lower 50s in most places.
By Monday morning the cold front will be making its way across eastern New York. While a leftover spotty shower or two cannot be ruled out across our far eastern zones early in the day...in general the day should feature dry weather along with increasing amounts of sunshine from northwest to southeast as high pressure and drier air over the central Great Lakes ridges eastward into our region. With 850 mb temps ranging from +6C north to +10 south...highs will largely be in the upper 60s to lower 70s...though readings will be cooler along the lakeshores due to onshore flow.
Monday night the axis of the surface ridge will slide directly overhead...promoting dry and tranquil weather along with excellent conditions for radiational cooling. This will allow lows to dip into the 40s areawide...with a few readings in the upper 30s not out of the question across the North Country.
On Tuesday the surface ridge axis will slowly drift east across New England...while the leading edge of a sprawling mid level trough and associated surface low over the north-central states slowly works its way into the Upper Mississippi Valley
As this does so
a warm frontal boundary snaking southeastward from this system will slowly push northeast across the Ohio Valley. While this latter feature could draw close enough to support the potential for a couple widely scattered showers across the Southern Tier later on in the afternoon...the day should otherwise feature continued dry weather with just a modest increase in cloud cover across far western New York. With our airmass starting to warm again highs should generally range through the 70s...though it will again be a bit cooler along the lakeshores due to onshore flow.
Tuesday night the various guidance packages suggest that the warm frontal boundary will lift further northeastward and into our region while also becoming increasingly wavy as a supporting mid-level shortwave ripples eastward across the central/eastern Great Lakes.
This will bring a general southwest-northeast increase in cloud cover and eventually the likelihood of some showers as the night progresses...with a few thunderstorms also becoming possible due to the arrival of some weak elevated instability. Otherwise it will be a notably milder night with lows ranging from around 50 across the North Country to the mid and upper 50s south of the NYS Thruway.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A wet pattern for the long term period with at least a chance of showers for the entire forecast area each day. A mid/upper level low over the northern Rockies will slowly track east, opening to a large scale trough through the second half of the week.
Earlier in the week with the trough/mid-level low to the west, periods of weak ridging over the region will give way to developing sfc lows and shortwave troughs that will bring an influx of GOMEX moisture north into the region. Moisture and large scale synoptic lift will provide for periods of showers with some breaks in the precip.
The larger trough will setup over the region by Friday, and persist through at least the weekend. This will provide for several rounds of showers, especially as different shortwave troughs track through/around the larger trough. Cyclonic flow and the trough in general over the region will also result in cooler temperatures.
Embedded thunderstorms will be possible at times, especially during the middle of the week when instability will be a bit better than later in the week.
Temperatures will start out well above normal with highs in the mid 60s to near 80 from the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario to the lower elevations of WNY respectively. Day-to-day cooling is then expected through the rest of the period as the trough moves into the region. Below normal high temperatures are expected for Saturday with temperatures only reaching the low 50s to near 60 for the afternoon.
AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A mid level shortwave will cross the region from southwest to northeast this morning, producing areas of rain in the process. The most widespread rain will fall across Western NY through mid morning, across the Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes through midday, and east of Lake Ontario through mid afternoon. Following the widespread rain, a cold front will move into Western NY late this afternoon and evening, then move east across the remainder of the area overnight, producing a few more showers. The cold front may produce a few isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms as well, mainly across Western NY from late afternoon through mid evening.
VSBY will be VFR most of the time, although any pockets of heavier rain will produce short lived VSBY restrictions.
CIGS will deteriorate to widespread MVFR with higher terrain IFR before daybreak as the low levels saturate with widespread rain. The widespread lower elevation MVFR CIGS and higher terrain IFR CIGS will continue most, if not all of today. The lower elevations will likely deteriorate further to IFR this evening along and behind the cold front. IFR CIGS will continue to linger overnight following the weak cold front. Weakening surface winds and abundant low level moisture may also allow areas of fog to develop overnight with areas of IFR VSBY.
Outlook...
Monday...Areas of IFR in low stratus and fog early, improving to VFR.
Tuesday...VFR.
Tuesday night and Wednesday...VFR/MVFR. Chance of showers with a chance of thunderstorms.
Thursday...VFR/MVFR. Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms.
MARINE
Moderate southeast winds through Sunday morning will produce choppy conditions on the lakes, mainly in the offshore and Canadian waters given the largely offshore wind component. Winds will then become southwest and decrease from west to east Sunday as a weak trough moves across the eastern Great Lakes.
Generally light winds are then expected Monday through Tuesday with a weak pressure gradient in place across the eastern Great Lakes.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 102 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024
SYNOPSIS
A wave of low pressure will move from the Ohio Valley across the eastern Great Lakes overnight through Sunday, bringing a round of widespread rain to the region. The rain will gradually taper off to scattered showers from west to east Sunday, before ending entirely Sunday night. High pressure will then build into the Great Lakes Monday with a return to dry weather.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Radar imagery showing a solid area of widespread rain moving north across the Genesee Valley, Finger Lakes, and Central NY early this morning. This area of rain will continue to overspread the eastern Lake Ontario region over the next few hours. Rain across Western NY is more intermittent, but expect coverage to expand through the wee hours of the morning as another batch of deeper moisture and forcing moves north out of northwestern PA.
A dreary night on tap as a sharp mid-level shortwave trough slides out of the Ohio Valley overnight and across the eastern Great Lakes through Sunday morning. Deepening moisture and broad scale ascent along the system's strengthening LLJ will cause rain to overspread the forecast area from south to north. While a few widely scattered showers associated with a weaker shortwave linger east of Lake Ontario, the more widespread rain will eventually move into the region in the second half of the night. As it does so, the LLJ will begin to approach its peak expected strength at around 45kts, which will likely cause precip across portions of the North Country to be locally heavier compared to surrounding areas. Otherwise, lowering cloud bases may intersect the higher terrain across the Southern Tier and North Country, leading to patchy fog through Sunday morning.
Owed to a stiff southeasterly surface wind, temperatures tonight will average warmer than normal with mainly upper 40s to low 50s for lows. Across far western NY and along the Lake Erie shoreline, temperatures will be a bit warmer, likely only dipping into the mid/upper 50s.
The system's 850H jet will begin to wane in strength and slowly slide east into central NY Sunday morning. Rain coverage will taper off across the western zones in tandem though remain persistent east of Lake Ontario for most of the day. By Sunday afternoon however, an upstream cold front currently over the central Great Lakes will begin approach western NY. The additional forcing combined with waning diurnal instability should cause an additional round of showers to arrive across from the far western counties by mid to late afternoon. While poor diurnal timing, weak deep-layer shear and a wealth of cloud cover will preclude stronger or more widespread thunderstorm development, 300-500J of SBCAPE building ahead of the front could still allow for a few rumbles of thunder and/or locally heavy downpours.
Rainfall totals overnight through early Sunday afternoon are expected to be greatest east of Rochester and across the North Country, generally averaging 0.5-1" in these areas, potentially exceeding an inch across far eastern Oswego and southern Lewis counties. Rainfall amounts under half an inch elsewhere are expected to the west.
In regards to temperatures...A large spread in daytime highs is expected Sunday, owed to the expected steady rains across the eastern zones during the day. Temperatures will top out mainly in the mid to upper 60s across far western NY and the Niagara Frontier east to Rochester. Across the interior Southern Tier, eastern Finger Lakes, and North Country, a range of 50s is expected.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A mid level trough will slide across Hudson Bay and into northern Quebec Sunday night...with its associated modest surface low pivoting a weak trailing cold front across our area.
This boundary will generate some additional scattered showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm or two as it passes through our region. The greatest pcpn potential will be found across the North Country... which will lie in closest proximity to the base of the supporting upper level trough and where the showers may become briefly more numerous during the late evening and early overnight hours. Otherwise expect fairly cloudy skies Sunday evening to give way to some limited clearing across far western New York overnight...with lows ranging from the upper 40s to lower 50s in most places.
By Monday morning the cold front will be making its way across eastern New York. While a leftover spotty shower or two cannot be ruled out across our far eastern zones early in the day...in general the day should feature dry weather along with increasing amounts of sunshine from northwest to southeast as high pressure and drier air over the central Great Lakes ridges eastward into our region. With 850 mb temps ranging from +6C north to +10 south...highs will largely be in the upper 60s to lower 70s...though readings will be cooler along the lakeshores due to onshore flow.
Monday night the axis of the surface ridge will slide directly overhead...promoting dry and tranquil weather along with excellent conditions for radiational cooling. This will allow lows to dip into the 40s areawide...with a few readings in the upper 30s not out of the question across the North Country.
On Tuesday the surface ridge axis will slowly drift east across New England...while the leading edge of a sprawling mid level trough and associated surface low over the north-central states slowly works its way into the Upper Mississippi Valley
As this does so
a warm frontal boundary snaking southeastward from this system will slowly push northeast across the Ohio Valley. While this latter feature could draw close enough to support the potential for a couple widely scattered showers across the Southern Tier later on in the afternoon...the day should otherwise feature continued dry weather with just a modest increase in cloud cover across far western New York. With our airmass starting to warm again highs should generally range through the 70s...though it will again be a bit cooler along the lakeshores due to onshore flow.
Tuesday night the various guidance packages suggest that the warm frontal boundary will lift further northeastward and into our region while also becoming increasingly wavy as a supporting mid-level shortwave ripples eastward across the central/eastern Great Lakes.
This will bring a general southwest-northeast increase in cloud cover and eventually the likelihood of some showers as the night progresses...with a few thunderstorms also becoming possible due to the arrival of some weak elevated instability. Otherwise it will be a notably milder night with lows ranging from around 50 across the North Country to the mid and upper 50s south of the NYS Thruway.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A wet pattern for the long term period with at least a chance of showers for the entire forecast area each day. A mid/upper level low over the northern Rockies will slowly track east, opening to a large scale trough through the second half of the week.
Earlier in the week with the trough/mid-level low to the west, periods of weak ridging over the region will give way to developing sfc lows and shortwave troughs that will bring an influx of GOMEX moisture north into the region. Moisture and large scale synoptic lift will provide for periods of showers with some breaks in the precip.
The larger trough will setup over the region by Friday, and persist through at least the weekend. This will provide for several rounds of showers, especially as different shortwave troughs track through/around the larger trough. Cyclonic flow and the trough in general over the region will also result in cooler temperatures.
Embedded thunderstorms will be possible at times, especially during the middle of the week when instability will be a bit better than later in the week.
Temperatures will start out well above normal with highs in the mid 60s to near 80 from the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario to the lower elevations of WNY respectively. Day-to-day cooling is then expected through the rest of the period as the trough moves into the region. Below normal high temperatures are expected for Saturday with temperatures only reaching the low 50s to near 60 for the afternoon.
AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A mid level shortwave will cross the region from southwest to northeast this morning, producing areas of rain in the process. The most widespread rain will fall across Western NY through mid morning, across the Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes through midday, and east of Lake Ontario through mid afternoon. Following the widespread rain, a cold front will move into Western NY late this afternoon and evening, then move east across the remainder of the area overnight, producing a few more showers. The cold front may produce a few isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms as well, mainly across Western NY from late afternoon through mid evening.
VSBY will be VFR most of the time, although any pockets of heavier rain will produce short lived VSBY restrictions.
CIGS will deteriorate to widespread MVFR with higher terrain IFR before daybreak as the low levels saturate with widespread rain. The widespread lower elevation MVFR CIGS and higher terrain IFR CIGS will continue most, if not all of today. The lower elevations will likely deteriorate further to IFR this evening along and behind the cold front. IFR CIGS will continue to linger overnight following the weak cold front. Weakening surface winds and abundant low level moisture may also allow areas of fog to develop overnight with areas of IFR VSBY.
Outlook...
Monday...Areas of IFR in low stratus and fog early, improving to VFR.
Tuesday...VFR.
Tuesday night and Wednesday...VFR/MVFR. Chance of showers with a chance of thunderstorms.
Thursday...VFR/MVFR. Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms.
MARINE
Moderate southeast winds through Sunday morning will produce choppy conditions on the lakes, mainly in the offshore and Canadian waters given the largely offshore wind component. Winds will then become southwest and decrease from west to east Sunday as a weak trough moves across the eastern Great Lakes.
Generally light winds are then expected Monday through Tuesday with a weak pressure gradient in place across the eastern Great Lakes.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY | 9 mi | 44 min | SSE 7G | 56°F | 57°F | 29.97 | 50°F | |
| PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY | 11 mi | 44 min | 56°F | 29.95 | ||||
| 45142 - Port Colborne | 15 mi | 32 min | SSW 3.9G | 51°F | 48°F | 1 ft | 29.99 | |
| NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY | 16 mi | 44 min | 55°F | 29.99 | ||||
| YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY | 28 mi | 32 min | SSE 7G | 58°F | 29.98 | |||
| DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY | 29 mi | 32 min | SSE 15G | 56°F | 29.95 | |||
| 45139 - West Lake Ontario - Grimsby | 38 mi | 32 min | ENE 5.8G | 48°F | 46°F | 2 ft | 29.98 | |
| OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY | 38 mi | 32 min | SE 5.1G | 57°F | 30.01 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KBUF BUFFALO NIAGARA INTL,NY | 18 sm | 38 min | SSE 07 | 10 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain | 55°F | 48°F | 77% | 30.00 |
| KIAG NIAGARA FALLS INTL,NY | 19 sm | 39 min | S 11 | 10 sm | Overcast | 57°F | 48°F | 72% | 29.98 |
Buffalo, NY,
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