Marine Weather and Tides
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.
|Sunrise 7:22AM||Sunset 7:17PM||Tuesday September 28, 2021 10:54 AM CDT (15:54 UTC)||Moonrise 10:43PM||Moonset 1:59PM||Illumination 53%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Aten, NEHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Sioux Falls, SD  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KFSD 281130 AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 630 AM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021
SHORT TERM. (Today and Tonight) Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021
Focus for today will be continued unseasonable heat and marginal fire weather concerns. Highs yesterday ranged from lower 80s in southwest MN to upper 80s-lower 90s across our western & southern counties. 850-925mb temperatures are 1-3C warmer by late afternoon across the forecast area, and with a greater southerly component in the low level flow, would expect modest mixing, supportive of warmer temps and lower dew points than blended guidance. Record highs today are more attainable than yesterday (91 @ KSUX, 93 @ KFSD/KMHE/KHON), and as a result, would not be surprised to see a few records tied or broken this afternoon.
The warm/dry conditions will yield afternoon humidity levels of 25 to 35 percent in most areas, lowest in areas west of I-29 where we will also see south-southeast winds occasionally gusting to around 25 mph. This will lead to elevated fire danger across the western CWA, possibly reaching very high in areas with mostly cured grasses and crops, but current forecast remains shy of reaching red flag criteria.
South-southeast flow slackens overnight, but remains somewhat breezy across the west and in higher elevations. This along with a gradual increase in boundary layer moisture will hold overnight temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s, closer to our normal highs for the end of September than the normal lows. Could possibly see near record warm low temperatures for Wednesday (Sept 29), but will ultimately depend on how quickly readings cool with the approaching cool front and associated rain chances Wednesday evening.
LONG TERM. (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021
Mid-range of the forecast period looks cooler and unsettled than recent days, as prominent upper ridge axis shifts east toward the western Great Lakes, and broad upper trough stalls over the Rockies. Weakening wave lifting out of the desert southwest will slide across the forecast area Wednesday, spreading showers and a few storms over mainly areas west of I-29 during the day. Deep southerly flow draws moisture northward, with precipitable water climbing to over an inch by late Wednesday. EC/GFS ensembles both indicate this is above the 90th percentile of climatology, with the moisture well-distributed within the vertical profile. NAM continues to depict greater MUCAPE values with modest mid-level lapse rates than other models ahead of the developing showers. Deep layer shear is lacking in the largely uni-directional profiles, but if greater instability is realized, cannot rule out an isolated stronger storm. Better consensus shows weaker instability within the same weak shear profile, so think the more likely scenario will be showers and scattered non-severe storms with pockets of locally heavy rain thanks to the deepening moisture and potential for training storms in the deep southerly flow.
Have slowed ramp-up in precip chances a bit from previous forecast during the day, with higher pops largely focused along/west of the James Valley through the day, then expanding eastward Wednesday night. Weak flow aloft allows main upper wave to linger over the area through the latter half of the work week as it attempts to lift northward through the Plains with the axis of high precipitable water shifting only slowly eastward. This will keep a decent chance for showers across the region through at least Thursday/Thursday night, possibly into Friday before the wave lifts north and deeper moisture works farther eastward Friday night. Fairly widespread cloud cover and precip chances will keep temperatures cooler as we move toward October, but still near to above normal in many areas, especially with moisture-supported overnight lows in the 50s.
Upper flow remains weak and largely troughy through the upcoming weekend. While fine details are difficult to pin down at this range, seems reasonable to hang on to a chance of showers through the weekend with temperatures remaining close to early October normals.
AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) Issued at 630 AM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021
VFR conditions are expected through the period. South-southeast winds become gusty in the late morning and afternoon, with gusts 20-25kt most likely along/west of I-29 corridor. Gusts expected to subside in most areas with sunset, though could remain breezy in higher elevations.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SD . NONE. MN . NONE. IA . NONE. NE . NONE.
SHORT TERM . JH LONG TERM . JH AVIATION . JH
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|Yankton, Chan Gurney Municipal Airport, SD||7 mi||59 min||SE 6||10.00 mi||Fair||66°F||57°F||73%||1011.7 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KYKN
Wind History from YKN (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||S||SE||SE||S||S||S|
|2 days ago||S||SW||SW|
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