Thursday, October28, 2021
Privacy Policy
L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Marysville, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:58AMSunset 6:28PM Thursday October 28, 2021 4:59 PM EDT (20:59 UTC) Moonrise 11:25PMMoonset 2:10PM Illumination 45% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LCZ422 637 Pm Edt Thu Oct 14 2021
.showers approaching the waters... The areas affected include... St. Clair river... Lake st. Clair... At 636 pm edt, doppler radar indicated showers, capable of producing winds to up 30 knots. These showers were located along a line extending from near new baltimore to near the ambassador bridge, moving east at 30 knots. Showers will be near, new baltimore around 640 pm edt. Grosse pointe around 655 pm edt. Algonac around 700 pm edt. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass. && lat...lon 4261 8252 4255 8259 4256 8264 4238 8282 4235 8293 4239 8295 4244 8291 4254 8291 4259 8285 4267 8282 4272 8269 4270 8261 4265 8259 4264 8256 4276 8251 4282 8251 4282 8248 4276 8247
LCZ422 Expires:202110142330;;189811 FZUS73 KDTX 142237 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 637 PM EDT Thu Oct 14 2021 LCZ422-460-142330-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marysville, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 42.91, -82.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KDTX 281959 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 359 PM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021

DISCUSSION.

Dry conditions prevail the rest of the afternoon and early evening under a thickening veil of high clouds. Isentropic ascent associated with an broad occluded low over the Ohio Valley will continue spreading over the region, working to saturate the column from the top down. This morning's 12z DTX sounding recorded a formidable dry layer below 300mb with a 40+ degree dew point depression near 650mb. This will take several more hours to overcome before a surge of midlevel moisture arrives at the stateline on a 40 kt jet tonight. Precip remains favored to begin in earnest after midnight along the southern CWA border with showers spreading northward through the early morning hours. The warm afternoon and thickening clouds will allow temps to stay mild this evening and tonight with low temperatures Friday morning dipping into the upper 40s to lower 50s.

The peak in the rainfall occurs from mid-morning Friday into the early afternoon as the most organized forcing and deep-layer saturation lifts through. PWATs are progged to rise to around 1.25 inches as the system directs a plume of Gulf moisture in from the southeast. This is in the 90th climatological percentile for late October, so some pockets of more moderate or briefly heavier rates will be possible midday mainly along the Monroe-Lenawee to Wayne to Macomb County corridor where some additional moisture contribution from the lakes is likely. Otherwise, widespread light rain showers persist across the CWA through the day as the broad cyclonic flow continues to direct moisture and waves of weak ascent along the northern periphery of the now cutoff low in the Ohio Valley.

The pressure gradient tightens throughout the morning with an easterly wind strengthening then backing northeast by the afternoon. A neutral to slightly unstable low-level thermodynamic profile will allow stronger winds to mix down to the surface. Gusts of 20 to 30 mph will be common and areas immediately downwind of Lake Erie may see gusts in excess of 35 mph. The long fetch over the lake will also cause water levels to rise in this region and a Lakeshore Flood Watch has been issued through Saturday morning.

Rainfall coverage and rates will begin to taper off Friday night, but lake aggregate troughing extending from the low will keep scattered showers and overall grungy conditions around into Saturday. The center of the low tracks northeast to near eastern Lake Erie on Saturday with the persistent northeast gradient resulting in a breezy and cool day locally. Rapid height rises then commence as the low is shunted east by an inbound mid-level ridge. This will shift the wind to the west on Sunday with much drier air working in and allowing for some peeks of sunshine. A mild and dry day overall with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Sunday evening will be dry as well with temperatures falling to the lower 50s.

A cold front is still on pace to sweep through the region late Sunday into early Monday as a strong Pacific jet sinks south and east across the northern CONUS. The degree of dry air that likely works in Sunday will keep precip chances low during frontal passage. The front will however bring temps below normal through the week with 850mb temps settling around -5C. Highs in the 40s and lows in the 30s will be common next week. There is good agreement among mid range guidance for the next wave to move through on Tuesday, bringing the next precip chances. Depending on timing, some snow showers will be possible with this wave.

MARINE.

Long duration small craft advisories into Saturday with prolonged easterly winds in the 10 to 20 knot range, with gusts of 25 to 30 knots. Toledo light in western Lake Erie has already been gusting just above 25 knots this afternoon. However, as warmer low level air and rain showers work in from south to north this evening, wind speeds will likely fall more into the 15 to 20 knot range. The peak of the winds still expected to be in the late Friday afternoon/early Friday evening time frame, as strong low pressure tracks through southern Ohio. Brief gale force wind gusts are possible over western Lake Erie, but duration and precipitation drag reducing wind speeds precludes a gale warning.

Winds shift to the northeast Friday night into Saturday morning with some decent low level cold advection as the low tracks off into Pennsylvania. Wind speeds over Central Lake Huron looks to be around 20 knots Saturday afternoon, and waves in excess of 4 feet will likely linger over the southern Lake Huron basin. Have thus extended the small craft advisory for Outer Saginaw Bay/Southern Lake Huron through 5 PM Saturday for now. Inner Saginaw Bay may be added in later issuance's, if northeast winds funneling through Saginaw Bay are a bit stronger than currently indicated.

A short lived ridge will arrive Saturday night, flipping the winds to the northwest Sunday and Monday, with a cold blast of air allowing for at least moderate winds of 20 to 25 knots with the increased mixing depths.

HYDROLOGY.

Broad low pressure tracks slowly across the Ohio Valley tonight into Friday with numerous showers spreading in from the south after midnight. Widespread rainfall is expected during the day Friday with the peak of the event occurring during the mid morning to early afternoon. Rainfall rates during this period will maximize around a tenth of an inch per hour for areas south of I-69, but may see some higher rates along the Lake Erie/Detroit River/Lake St. Clair shoreline. Rainfall rates and coverage then begin to taper off Friday evening with light scattered showers persisting into Saturday. Forecast rainfall totals range from around a quarter inch near the I-69 corridor to 1 to 1.5 inches in areas along and south of a Detroit to Adrian line. Given the long duration event and modest rainfall rates, significant flooding concerns are not expected.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 327 PM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021

AVIATION .

VFR conditions to continue into the afternoon and evening as dry air advection stripped out low-level moisture earlier today, throughout the late morning hours. Efficient moisture transport derived from a low pressure system set to travel east over Kentucky tonight will result in rapidly diminishing cigs and widespread light rain across Michigan. MVFR/IFR cig heights are expected overnight, with highest confidence to see IFR residing over the Metro terminals and north into KPTK. MVFR/IFR cigs are likely to hold through Friday afternoon as an increasing pressure gradient produces gusts around 20 to 25 knots during the afternoon hours.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Moderate for cigs aob 5kt between 4-6Z, high after 7Z onwards.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . Lakeshore Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MIZ076-083.

Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Saturday for LHZ421-441>443.

Lake St Clair . Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Saturday for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie . Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Saturday for LEZ444.



DISCUSSION . TF MARINE . SF HYDROLOGY . TF AVIATION . AM

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 6 mi66 min 61°F 1004.8 hPa
AGCM4 20 mi66 min 58°F 56°F1005.4 hPa
45147 - Lake St Clair 35 mi60 min ENE 18G21 56°F 55°F2 ft1004.1 hPa (-2.7)
PSCM4 35 mi60 min E 15G18 58°F 1024.7 hPa (-2.4)
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 37 mi60 min E 13G18 56°F 1005.8 hPa (-2.3)
45149 - Southern Lake Huron 48 mi60 min E 16G19 64°F 57°F2 ft1006.5 hPa (-2.5)

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
Last
24hr
N8
NE9
NE9
NE9
NE9
NE8
NE4
W2
SE1
SE5
SE9
S3
G6
SE3
G7
SE8
G11
SE6
G9
E8
G12
SE6
G12
SE10
G15
SE11
G16
SE10
G14
SE11
G15
SE10
G14
E8
E9
G13
1 day
ago
N15
G21
NW12
G18
NW10
G18
NW13
G19
NW13
G17
NW11
G17
NW8
G16
NW9
G15
NW11
G15
NW8
G13
NW5
G11
NE18
NE18
NE17
NE13
G16
NE12
E10
NE8
E9
NE8
NE7
N5
G8
N6
N8
2 days
ago
NE29
G35
NE33
NE31
NE30
NE27
G33
NE29
G36
NE31
NE33
NE33
NE32
NE31
NE31
N26
NW10
G16
N13
G20
NW11
G20
NW10
G15
N13
G21
NW14
G20
N17
G24
N18
G30
N14
G24
N16
G24
N14
G18

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Clair County International Airport, MI3 mi65 minENE 1110.00 miFair61°F41°F48%1005.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPHN

Wind History from PHN (wind in knots)
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
Last 24hr0N4N30000000E300E4E8E9E9E11
G17
E10
G16
E11
G15
E9E9
G14
E11
G16
NE9
G14
1 day agoNW7NW9
G15
NW9
G16
NW11
G14
NW8NW7
G14
NW8NW8NW6NW5NW5NW4NW3NW4NW40000NE4NE4NW300
2 days agoNE15
G22
N13
G22
NE14
G19
N11
G17
N10
G15
N10
G17
N7
G17
N12
G17
N9
G20
N12
G19
N7
G14
NW7NW8NW9
G14
NW10
G17
NW8NW8NW13
G17
NW10
G21
NW11
G22
NW11
G19
NW8
G19
NW11
G18
NW10
G19

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
       (on/off)   Help Weather Map
wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station




Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE.