Wednesday, September22, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Grand Rapids, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:29AMSunset 7:41PM Wednesday September 22, 2021 7:28 AM EDT (11:28 UTC) Moonrise 7:45PMMoonset 8:00AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ846 Holland To Grand Haven Mi- 405 Am Edt Wed Sep 22 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until 2 pm edt this afternoon...
.gale warning in effect from 2 pm edt this afternoon through Thursday afternoon...
Early this morning..North winds 20 to 25 knots. Cloudy with a chance of rain. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Today..Northeast winds to 30 knots backing north gales to 35 knots late in the day. Cloudy. A chance of rain showers until midday. Waves 3 to 6 feet.
Tonight..North gales to 40 knots. Rain showers. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Thursday..North gales to 40 knots decreasing to 30 knots late in the day. Rain showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Thursday night..North winds to 30 knots backing northwest 20 to 25 knots toward daybreak. Partly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming around 20 knots late in the day. Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Saturday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Sunday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
LMZ846 Expires:202109222000;;995368 FZUS53 KGRR 220805 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 405 AM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ846-222000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grand Rapids, MI
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location: 42.95, -85.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 221000 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 600 AM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021

LATEST UPDATE . Aviation

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 330 AM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021

- Heavy Rain potential continues into Thursday

- Next chance for rain comes on a cold front Friday night

- Some timing differences with a front early next week

DISCUSSION. (Today through next Tuesday) Issued at 330 AM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021

- Heavy Rain potential continues into Thursday

We have maintained the Flood Watch through Thursday morning. At this point we have not extended it into Thursday, but that change may be needed. That said, the higher amounts that were in the models last night (4+ inches) have backed off a bit tonight. Some of the rain is already fallen though, so that is part of the equation. Radar estimates show nearly an inch has fallen in eastern Jackson County with a 3+ swath in southern Oakland County.

What looks most plausible is another 2 inches or so in the watch area. The HREF max values which normally do a decent job in depicting in the values in the highest swaths of rain is still showing 4+ amounts possible, but that is again the max. So, confidence in seeing impacts from flooding are probably low to medium, but given we already have the watch out will leave it in place.

The setup remains good for heavier rain with an upper low lifting out of the Ohio Valley today and into Southeast Lower Michigan tonight. The low then slowly spins north to the thumb on Thursday. Our southeast forecast area (LAN/JXN) will be in a zone of strong isentropic lift much of the time. BUFKIT overviews at JXN show strong lift tonight which will be when the heaviest rain will likely occur from around midnight through daybreak. If flooding is going to occur it will likely be during this time frame. The band of heavier rain expected tonight will gradually lift north through the area moving into Central Lower Michigan Thursday morning. It will weaken with time. Not expecting flood impacts outside of the watch area.

Another impact from this system will be the wind. At this point not going with a Wind Advisory, but we considered it from South Central Lower Michigan, essentially the same area as the Flood Watch, so Lansing, Jackson and Battle Creek. We could see some wind gusts in excess of 45 mph with scattered power outages possible.

Thursday night we are likely looking at lake effect rain showers with delta t's in the middle teens. Some waterspouts out on Lake Michigan are not out of the question given the unstable conditions.

- Next chance for rain comes on a cold front Friday night

A cold front moves in Friday night with another round of rain showers for the area. The rain looks to mostly be of the post frontal variety and will be confined to Friday night and Saturday morning across the area. Heavy rain is not anticipated.

- Some timing differences with a front early next week

Another front moves through early next week with the GFS being slower and stronger which gives the area a better chance of rain. The ECMWF has a mainly dry frontal passage whereas the GFS has showers for the area on Tuesday. At this point a bit difficult to nail things down, but would side with the drier Euro as it has had a better handle on things as of late.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) Issued at 557 AM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021

No changes to the forecast. Low pressure moving north will continue to generate light to moderate rain across the terminals through the period. The exception will be MKG which may be a bit too far west to pick up much rain. Where it's raining, we'll see MVFR/IFR conditions prevail.

MARINE. Issued at 330 AM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021

First for the headlines . The Beach Hazard Statement remains in effect through Thursday evening. We have a Small Craft Advisory in place through 200pm today at which time it changes to a Gale Warning. The Gale then runs through 200pm on Thursday.

The largest waves with this event will be found off shore in the open waters as the winds will be north to north-northeast. So, the largest waves overall will be found down towards Chicago and Gary Indiana, or in general terms the south end of the lake. In West Michigan the largest waves will be found on the north side of Big and Little Sable Points and from South Haven southward down the shore. The strongest winds will occur this evening and tonight with solid 35-40 knot gales likely. The gradient tightens tonight as a low lifts into Southeast Lower Michigan. The pressure difference between the Lower Michigan low and the upstream high over the plains is what will drive our winds and resultant waves. 10-14 footers look likely at the south end of the lake. In our area with a slight offshore component to the wind the highest waves of around 10 feet will be found in the aforementioned few spots.

Regarding lakeshore flooding, it appears we will not have significant impacts due to the off shore or along shore flow as well as the fact that the FV COM water model does not bring water levels to advisory criteria. Advisory levels in our area are around 582.75 feet and the model even in the far south end of the lake is predicting levels around 581.9 feet. It appears there will be some beach erosion, but maybe not to the level that will impact too much property.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . Flood Watch through Thursday morning for MIZ059-066-067-073-074.

Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday evening for MIZ037-043- 050-056-064-071.

LM . Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ844>849.

Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 PM EDT Thursday for LMZ844>849.



SYNOPSIS . Duke DISCUSSION . Duke AVIATION . 04 MARINE . Duke


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 31 mi59 min N 12 G 14 56°F 68°F1019.4 hPa50°F
45029 32 mi39 min NNW 16 G 21 59°F 70°F3 ft1020.4 hPa49°F
45161 40 mi49 min N 12 G 16 58°F 1021 hPa
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 40 mi39 min NNE 6 G 8.9 55°F 1021.2 hPa48°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 73 mi89 min NE 8 G 14 58°F 1020 hPa (-0.0)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Grand Rapids, Gerald R. Ford International Airport, MI9 mi36 minN 810.00 miOvercast53°F53°F100%1019.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGRR

Wind History from GRR (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSE3SE4CalmSE5SE9SE9S16
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2 days agoE6E6E7E6E8SE6SE7SE11SE8SE9SE8SE6SE6SE6SE8SE9SE8SE6SE7SE6SE6SE6SE5SE5

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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