Monday, September27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
University at Buffalo, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 7:04PM Monday September 27, 2021 3:11 AM EDT (07:11 UTC) Moonrise 9:40PMMoonset 12:45PM Illumination 67% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 1022 Pm Edt Sun Sep 26 2021
Overnight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers.
Monday..Southwest winds increasing to 15 to 25 knots. A chance of showers in the morning.
Monday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north. A chance of showers.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny in the morning, then becoming mostly Sunny.
Tuesday night..North winds less than 10 knots. Mainly clear.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. Mostly Sunny.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 knots or less. Mostly Sunny.
Friday..North winds less than 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. The water temperature off buffalo is 65 degrees.
LEZ020 Expires:202109270915;;237894 FZUS51 KBUF 270222 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1022 PM EDT Sun Sep 26 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ020-270915-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near University at Buffalo, NY
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location: 42.99, -78.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 270645 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 245 AM EDT Mon Sep 27 2021

SYNOPSIS. A warm front will push north of the area this morning, but will quickly be followed by a cold front which will drop southward across Western New York this evening. This will produce showers at times through Tuesday morning, however the vast majority of today will be warm and breezy for areas south of Lake Ontario. After this, expect fair and mainly dry weather through the rest of the work week as Canadian high pressure builds across our region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/. A warm front will move from southwest to northeast across the area through mid-morning. This boundary is ill-defined at the surface, but there is a sharp mid-level thermal gradient which will provide the focus for some showers from Buffalo to Rochester northward early this morning. This area should intensify east of Lake Ontario as a mid-level shortwave catches up to the boundary this morning. Meanwhile, the rest of Western NY will dry out quickly by mid-morning with frequent breaks of sunshine developing.

It will be breezy today, especially across the Niagara Frontier where the clearing will help winds aloft (40 kts at 925mb) mix to the surface with wind gusts up to 40 mph from mid-morning through early afternoon. Areas south of Lake Ontario will be in the warm sector, allowing temperatures to climb into the lower to mid 70s today. There may be a few lingering showers east of Lake Ontario which will be closer to the frontal boundary.

A digging mid-level trough will push a cold frontal boundary southward across the region this evening. There may be some showers with this boundary, which could be enhanced by orographic lifting and lake enhancement at 850mb temperatures drop to around +6c across Lake Ontario by daybreak Tuesday.

Surface high pressure across the Central Great Lakes will expand across our region on Tuesday. There may be some lingering showers across the Western Southern Tier Tuesday morning, but the entire region should be rain-free by Tuesday afternoon. Upslope/lake enhanced clouds will linger a bit longer, but the drier air mass should eventually win out allowing for a partial clearing by the afternoon hours. Highs will be in the lower to mid 60s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. Following the passage of the early week cold front . Canadian high pressure over northern Ontario and Quebec will slowly but steadily ridge southward across our area Tuesday night through Wednesday. Subsidence and cool dry air associated with this feature will keep our area largely dry . with the possible exception of areas east and southeast of Lake Ontario. This latter region could potentially be clipped by the western portion of a large upper level low dropping southward across Quebec and New England Wednesday and Wednesday night . which would result in an increase in cloud cover and the chance for some showers/lake effect showers should this come to fruition. With the various model packages still at odds as to the timing and strength/westward extent of the upper level low . for now have kept PoPs for Wednesday-Wednesday night confined to the slight chance range.

As for temperatures . expect seasonably cool readings thanks to the cool dry Canadian airmass . along with a bit of a west-east gradient in temps given the upper low/attendant cool pool aloft dropping southward across New England. Expect highs on Wednesday to range from the low-mid 60s across western New York to the upper 50s and lower 60s east of Lake Ontario . with lows Tuesday and Wednesday nights mostly ranging through the 40s . with some upper 30s possible across interior portions of the North Country.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. During the latter portions of the work week . the 00z guidance suite continues to exhibit notable differences in the handling of the large upper low over New England. The GFS remains insistent on ejecting the low northeastward to the Gulf of St Lawrence by later Friday . while the ECMWF holds the large cyclonic gyre in place across the Canadian Maritimes and New England . with the GEM now trending toward the deeper/more westward ECMWF solution. Should the latter camp verify . there would be a continued low potential for some showers east and southeast of Lake Ontario on Thursday . for which some slight chance PoPs are in place Otherwise. cool and dry weather should continue through Friday. With regard to temperatures . Thursday should easily be the coolest day of the week with highs ranging from the mid-upper 50s east of lake Ontario to the upper 50s and lower 60s across western New York . before temps begin to rebound a little (i.e. back to Wednesday's levels) on Friday Meanwhile. nightly lows will bottom out Thursday night when readings should dip into the mid-upper 30s across interior portions of the Southern Tier/North Country and the lower to mid 40s elsewhere . with lows Friday night then expected to be more similar to those of Wednesday night.

As we move into next weekend . the guidance diverges even further with the track/strength/timing of the next shortwave impulse and attendant surface low. Given the large discrepancies and poor run-to- run and model-to-model consistency . for now have kept precipitation chances rather conservative with a generally dry Saturday giving way to general slight chance PoPs by Sunday Otherwise. temperatures should continue on a slow upward climb . with daytime highs reaching the mid 60s to around 70 by Sunday.

AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Showers will be focused along a mid-level frontal boundary which will move from SW-NE across the area through noon today. These will not be heavy enough to result in any vsby restrictions for the most part, with the exception of KART where showers will be heavier and there will be more low level moisture with MVFR/IFR flight conditions due to lowering cigs.

LLWS at KJHW where stronger winds aloft will not mix to the surface until after 12Z.

The rest of the area south of Lake Ontario will be in the warm sector today with breezy but widespread VFR flight conditions.

Increasing cloud cover with cigs lowering to MVFR in spots tonight as a cold front drops southward across the area. Scattered showers possible.

Outlook .

Tuesday . Mainly VFR with a chance of showers early across the Southern Tier. Wednesday through Friday..Mainly VFR.

MARINE. Breezy west-southwesterly flow will maintain widespread SCA-level conditions today across eastern portions of both lakes. Winds will then subside tonight with northerly flow in the wake of a passing cold front.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NYZ007. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ006. Beach Hazards Statement until 5 AM EDT early this morning for NYZ005. Beach Hazards Statement through this afternoon for NYZ010-019- 085. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040- 041. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LOZ044-045.



SYNOPSIS . Apffel NEAR TERM . Apffel SHORT TERM . Hitchcock/JJR LONG TERM . JJR AVIATION . Apffel MARINE . Apffel/JJR/PP


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 9 mi53 min ENE 2.9 G 2.9 65°F 67°F1011.2 hPa59°F
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 13 mi53 min 64°F 1010.7 hPa
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 24 mi53 min 68°F 1011.1 hPa
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 25 mi71 min SW 8 G 13 60°F 1011.9 hPa (-0.3)
45142 - Port Colborne 31 mi71 min W 18 G 21 69°F 68°F1011.8 hPa (+0.4)
45139 - West Lake Ontario - Grimsby 43 mi71 min S 7.8 G 9.7 64°F 65°F1 ft1011 hPa (+0.1)
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 45 mi71 min SW 13 G 17 67°F 1011.9 hPa (-0.0)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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S8
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G14

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY5 mi17 minSE 310.00 miOvercast62°F55°F78%1012.2 hPa
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY11 mi18 minS 610.00 miOvercast63°F57°F81%1011.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBUF

Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7S5S5S6SW7S7SW8SW9SW13SW18
G24
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SW13W9SW7SW7S7S7S8SW4W3
1 day agoS5S6S6SE7S6SE7SE4S9S13SW14S16
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W8W10W10W5W5W8SW3S3Calm
2 days agoS13S13S13S14S15S18
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SW9S11SW18
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SW6SW5S5S5S5SE5S5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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