Wednesday, September22, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Saratoga Springs, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 6:53PM Wednesday September 22, 2021 7:25 AM EDT (11:25 UTC) Moonrise 7:57PMMoonset 8:10AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saratoga Springs, NY
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location: 43.01, -73.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 221050 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 650 AM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021

SYNOPSIS. Warmer weather is expected today with an increasing chance for showers, especially in the afternoon. Thursday will be similar to today with relatively warm temperatures and chances for showers. Thursday evening into Friday, a period of moderate to heavy rain is possible with a cold frontal passage. Behind this cold frontal passage, cooler weather is expected for the weekend with a slight chance for some showers.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Update. As of 6:45 AM EDT, skies remain mostly cloudy with abundant low stratus higher clouds also streaming in from the southwest. Cloud cover has kept temperatures a bit warmer than forecast last night, so bumped temperatures up a few degrees this morning. Also seeing a few showers in the Hudson valley, so increased PoPs there as well for the next few hours. Otherwise, just some minor changes to the previous forecast to reflect current trends Previous discussion below has more details.

Previous [4:30 AM EDT]. The rest of tonight . A 1030 mb surface high located near Nova Scotia is leading to southeasterly flow into the region. This southeasterly flow is advecting a moist, maritime airmass into the region, which is why we have seen low stratus expand over the past several hours. Some areas of the Berkshires, Mid Hudson valley, and Catskills are even seeing some light showers or drizzle with this moist low-level flow. Clouds have kept temperatures relatively warm tonight, with most areas in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Today . southeasterly flow continues ad the surface high slowly drifts to the south/southeast. This will result in winds becoming slightly more southerly, so while there will still be moisture advection into the region, this slight shift in wind direction will also allow for warmer air to be advected into the region. High temperatures will range from the upper 60s in the high terrain to upper 70s in the valleys. With a decent pressure gradient in place, it will also be a bit breezy today, which should help create a decent mixed layer. Some of the stratus should mix to stratocumulus with the development of the daytime mixed layer, so some peaks of sunshine are possible later today for most areas, especially for northern and western areas. Chances for showers will increase this afternoon, however, due to continued moist low- level flow, warm air advection, and weak isentropic lift. Tonight will be another warm night with a continuing chance for showers and mostly cloudy conditions. Lows will only drop into the 60s for most locations.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. Thursday through Friday night . All eyes will be on the trough that is currently digging southward out of Canada over the central U.S. This highly amplified trough is currently becoming closed off at 500 mb over Illinois and will continue moving eastward over the coming days. A surface low is developing downstream of this upper trough. This system will become vertically stacked as the upper low becomes a cutoff low. As this happens, the surface cold front trailing southward from the surface low will become occluded as the whole system slowly tracks to the E/NE over the coming days. Guidance has come into better agreement that this system will stay far enough to our west that any impacts should be minimal through much of the day Thursday.

However, Thursday evening, the occluded front will begin to move into western portions of our CWA. The front is expected to traverse the region overnight Thursday and will depart to the east during the day Friday. At this time, guidance has finally come into better agreement, with the more progressive GFS trending towards the slower Euro solution. Comparison of model 500 hPa geopotential height forecasts with 00z RAOB data shows that the the Euro has a better handle on the current setup with more amplified ridging upstream and downstream of the upper trough. The Euro is also handling the northern stream shortwave over Wisconsin better (this feature is less amplified than the GFS shows) as well. Given above info and trend away from the more progressive solution, finally have increased confidence that the frontal passage will not occur until Thursday evening and the front may even linger in eastern areas Friday morning.

In terms of impacts from the frontal passage, WPC has a marginal risk for excessive rainfall that could lead to flash flooding for areas mainly west of Albany Thursday and Thursday night. A small portion of the Catskills was clipped by the slight risk from WPC. Meanwhile, SPC has a marginal risk for severe weather during the same time period for the same areas, with the main threat being damaging winds from thunderstorms. With the frontal passage expected to occur slightly later than previously forecast (overnight Thursday vs Thursday afternoon), the severe threat looks more limited due to lack of instability from daytime heating. The threat for some high shear / low CAPE damaging wind gusts does still exist, however, so will continue to message in the HWO. As far as heavy rain goes, deep southerly flow will advect anomalous moisture into the region with PWAT values possibly exceeding 2 standard deviations above normal. This moisture combined with strong synoptic forcing for ascent may lead to heavy rainfall. Additionally, mid-level winds will be roughly parallel to the frontal boundary and the boundary itself will be slow moving, so some training of heavier rainfall is possible. Not expecting widespread issues at this time, but some flooding is possible for urban and poor drainage areas that do see heavier rainfall amounts.

Friday, the cold front slowly moves to the east, although it may linger over our western New England zones through much of Friday morning, so kept chance PoPs for these areas through much of Friday. Behind the front, much cooler air will be advected into the region with a more Westley wind component. Showers taper off from west to east behind the front. With the cooler airmass coming in, lows will drop to near seasonable levels, with 40s (high terrain) to low 50s (Mid Hudson Valley) expected.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. The extended forecast period opens with a mean mid and upper level trough over the eastern CONUS. High pressure will be building in from the TN and OH Valleys on Saturday. A few lingering showers in the wake of front are possible across western New England in the morning. Otherwise, a mix of sun and clouds is expected with temps in the 60s and lower 70s to open the weekend.

Saturday night into Sunday . A cold front approaches and crosses the region, as the mid and upper level trough becomes negatively tilted. Isolated to scattered showers are possible for the close of the weekend, as the higher PoPs were placed in the grids from the Capital District north and west. The pcpn should be light, as the front should be moisture starved, as indicated by the latest ECMWF/GFS. Lows will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Highs will be mainly in the 60s with a few lower 70s in the Hudson River Valley, and some upper 50s are possible over the mtns.

Sunday Night through Monday . Another period of fairly tranquil weather is expected with high pressure building in from the Piedmont and Mid Atlantic Regions. Cyclonic flow continues across the region with the cold pool with the upper trough generating some instability cumulus, as clouds will mix with sun. Lows will be in the 40s to around 50F in a few spots with mainly upper 50s to upper 60s for highs to open the week.

Monday Night into Tuesday . Another short-wave rotates around the upper low bringing a slight to low chance of showers especially across the northern half of the forecast area. Pcpn is expected to be light with northern stream energy and cyclonic vorticity advection driving the moisture convergence and forcing. Temps will finish the long term in the seasonable range.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. High pressure continues to move east of the Nova Scotia this morning, as a cold front slowly approaches the eastern Great Lake Region. A southerly flow will continue across the region today with plenty of low stratus advecting in from the western Atlantic today into tonight, as well as some isolated showers and drizzle.

Low-level stratus continue to impact KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU this morning with cigs 1-3 kft AGL and periodic lapses to IFR levels at KPSF/KALB. Widespread low MVFR/IFR cigs are expected through much of the morning with some vsbys to MVFR levels with drizzle and light showers.

Cigs will gradually rise to high MVFR/low VFR by the early to mid afternoon at the TAF sites. The front presses eastward and a few showers may reach the TAF sites between 23Z/WED to 03Z/THU with cigs/vsbys lowering back the MVFR levels. We included PROB30 groups at most of the TAF sites after 03Z/THU too.

The winds will increase from the south to southeast at 6-12 kts with some gusts around 20 kts at KALB/KPSF. The winds will decrease tonight to 10 kts or less (except at KALB). Low-level wind shear will become an issue at KGFl after 00Z/THU as the 2 kft AGL winds increase to 35 kts and the sfc winds are less than 10 kts. LLWS groups were included.

Outlook .

Thursday Night: High Operational Impact Definite SHRA. TSRA. Friday: High Operational Impact Likely SHRA. TSRA. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

FIRE WEATHER. No fire weather issues expected over the next few days.

A strong cold front will approach Thursday afternoon into Friday. Ahead of the cold front, the chance for showers will increase during the day on Wednesday. The best chance for rain showers will be Thursday evening and night into Friday morning. Rain could be moderate to heavy at times. Behind the cold front, temperatures will be slightly cooler than normal through the weekend with the chance for intermittent showers.

Tonight, maximum relative humidity values will range between 90- 100%. On Wednesday, minimum relative humidity values will range between 65-95% with the highest values located over southern VT. Wednesday night, maximum relative humidity values will run between 85-100%. Thursday, minimum relative humidity values will range between 70-100%.

Southerly winds tonight will diminish between 3-7 kts. On Wednesday, winds will be out of the south 5-10 kts with gusts between 15-20 kts. Wednesday night, southerly winds will maintain its speed of 5- 10 kts with gusts as high as 20 kts. On Thursday, south-southeast winds will be between 10-15 kts with gusts as high as 25 kts. Thursday night, winds will be between 5-10 kts out of the south. On Friday, winds will be out of the southwest with magnitudes up to 5 kts.

HYDROLOGY. Chances for rain will increase Wednesday afternoon through the end of the week as a slow-moving cold front approaches from the west. A period of moderate to heavy rainfall is possible as the front passes, with the most likely timing Thursday afternoon into Friday morning.

Area rivers and streams will increase in response to this weather event, but are expected to remain below flood stage. Isolated Flash Flooding is possible, mainly in urban and poor drainage areas, as we are under 'Marginal Risk' for excessive rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

CLIMATE. Due to our office move this week, we are unable to generate climate products. We hope to have the ability restored on Wednesday.

EQUIPMENT. NOAA Weather Radio operated by NWS Albany will be down as we relocate to our new office. We hope to have them back in service by Wednesday afternoon.

In addition, KENX radar may experience occasional outages this week.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. MA . None. VT . None.

SYNOPSIS . Main NEAR TERM . Main SHORT TERM . Main LONG TERM . Wasula AVIATION . Wasula FIRE WEATHER . Evbuoma/Main HYDROLOGY . Evbuoma/Main CLIMATE . EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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On 03/09/2021 the NDBC primary processing servers were shut off due to a facilities issue. Station pages on the NDBC website are not updating and there is no ETR at this time. We will update this banner as we learn more.
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 69 mi56 min Calm 66°F 1020 hPa65°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Albany International Airport, NY18 mi35 minN 08.00 miLight Drizzle63°F63°F100%1020.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSCH

Wind History from SCH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------CalmS3S4--S814S10
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1 day ago------------------Calm--NE4NE4S4SE5S6S5S7S7
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2 days ago------------------N3NE5NE5NE5NE8--N6NE5NE5CalmCalmE3N5----

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
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Wed -- 12:58 AM EDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:42 AM EDT     4.71 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:17 PM EDT     -0.47 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:06 PM EDT     4.75 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:56 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.3-0.20.41.62.93.84.54.74.13.12.21.30.3-0.4-0.212.43.54.44.74.53.62.71.9

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
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Wed -- 12:48 AM EDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:34 AM EDT     4.71 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:07 PM EDT     -0.47 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 06:58 PM EDT     4.75 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:56 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.1-0.20.51.8344.64.6432.11.20.1-0.5-01.22.63.74.44.84.43.52.61.8

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