Thursday, September23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
St. Johnsville, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 6:54PM Thursday September 23, 2021 7:28 PM EDT (23:28 UTC) Moonrise 8:21PMMoonset 9:18AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Johnsville, NY
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location: 43.02, -74.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 232032 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 432 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will move gradually across the region tonight into early Friday morning bringing a widespread rainfall to the area. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will also occur producing bursts of heavy rainfall. Showers will taper off Friday morning with a cooler and drier air mass building in for the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. Flash Flood Watch remains in in effect for Ulster, Greene, Columbia and Dutchess counties from 5 pm today through 11 am Friday.

Flash Flood Watch was expanded and is in effect for Berkshire and Litchfield counties from midnight to Noon Friday.

Widespread moderate to heavy rainfall will occur as a cold front moves gradually across the region tonight. The boundary is currently located to our west across central NY and PA. Embedded thunderstorms are occurring across much of NJ this afternoon. The boundary will be slow to move across the region as the upper level low over the Great Lakes region lift slowly northward and the mid and upper level trough turns negatively tilted. Precipitable water values along and ahead of the front are 1.5 to 1.75 inches 1-2 STDEVS above normal. One to 3 inches of rainfall is expected with locally higher amounts possible. Hourly rainfall rates could reach 1/2 to 1 inch an hour with some orographic enhancements off the east/southeast Catskills. Greatest concern for isolated to scattered flash flooding is over the eastern Catskills, mid Hudson Valley, southern and central Taconics, the Berkshires and Litchfield County. The Weather Prediction Center did expand the Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall across the local area.

Low-level shear is very strong and we will have to monitor for some gusty winds or an isolated tornado. The areas at risk are basically south of I-90 where the Storm Prediction Center has its Marginal Risk.

It will mild and muggy tonight ahead of the boundary with temperatures and dew points beginning to drop in its wake. Expecting lows mainly in the 50s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Improving conditions with showers tapering off mainly in the morning but not until afternoon for western New England. High pressure will build in at the surface in the wake of the boundary while aloft an upper level low drops southward out of central Canada. This will place our region under southwest as we head into the weekend. Looking at fair weather Friday night and Saturday with seasonable temperatures and comfortable humidity. Chances for showers will begin to return Saturday night ahead of the trough and its associated cold front.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Large upper level trough will be moving southern Canada for Sunday into the start of next week. Some models (such as the 12z ECMWF) show this trough closing off as it moves from north of the Great Lakes on Sunday towards Atlantic Canada by Tuesday or Wednesday. Models also suggest a piece of the trough may hang back and linger over the Northeast through the middle of next week, so heights/temps aloft will probably remain below normal into Wednesday or Thursday as well. With the trough nearby, there may be a few passing rain showers, especially for northern areas. The best chance will probably be on Sunday, as the trough axis moves across the forecast area. Still, the dynamics will be pretty far north and moisture is limited, so will keep POPs to just slight to low CHC for now for Sunday and mainly slight chc into next week. Skies will vary from partly to mostly cloudy, with the highest cloud cover for northern and high terrain areas.

Despite the trough, daytime temps should still get close to seasonable values, with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s for valley areas, since there should be some sunshine each day. Overnight lows will remain in the mid 40s to mid 50s, so no worries for any frost just yet.

AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Through 18z/Fri . Mainly dry weather will continue through the afternoon with just a brief shower or two possible. Expect VFR conditions through the rest of the afternoon with possible brief MVFR cigs at KPSF.

By this evening, cigs will lower to MVFR levels with rain approaching from the west. Moderate to heavy rainfall will push across during the late evening and overnight hours with widespread MVFR/IFR conditions due to cigs and/or vsbys. Rain will depart early Friday morning with VFR conditions gradually returning (last at KPSF).

Wind will be out of the southeast at 10-20 kt with gusts to 30 kt this afternoon, then lessen this evening, becoming light and variable toward daybreak Friday. Wind will then be out of the southwest at 5-10 kt Friday morning.

A period of LLWS is expected at all terminals later this afternoon into the overnight hours at all sites with winds at 2000 feet increasing to 40-45 kt.

Outlook .

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

FIRE WEATHER. A widespread wetting rainfall this be occurring this evening into tonight, with showers winding down tomorrow morning. After RH values near 100 percent tonight, RH values will lower to 50 to 60 percent on Friday afternoon. South to southeast winds of 10 to 20 mph this evening with become south to southwest at 5 to 10 mph tonight and eventually switch to the west to southwest at 5 to 15 mph on Friday. Although it will be dry, RH values will remain above 50 percent on Saturday with light winds.

HYDROLOGY. Slow moving frontal boundary is starting to bring bands of showers into the region. These showers will continue through this evening and into tonight. Showers should be ending from west to east on Friday morning, as the front finally pushes across the area. Some of the rainfall will be locally heavy, especially for southern and high terrain areas. Much of the area is in a marginal to slight risk for flash flooding and a Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the eastern Catskills, mid Hudson valley, the southern and central Taconics, Berkshires and northwestern Connecticut. Rainfall rates may exceed one half inch per hour at times and total rainfall amounts will be ranging from 1 to 3 inches across the HSA. Some locally higher totals can't be ruled out, especially over the high terrain of the eastern Catskills, thanks to upslope flow locally enhancing rainfall.

The rainfall may allow for sharp rises on small streams and creeks. Isolated to scattered flash flooding will be possible, especially over the watch area. Urban, poor drainage and low lying areas will be susceptible to flooding as well, especially for late this evening. Larger and main stem rivers will see rises in response to the runoff from this rainfall, but are expected to remain below flood stage.

Dry weather will return for later Friday and into Saturday and just a few passing light rain showers are expected for Sunday into next week. This should allow for any river rises to recede.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Flash Flood Watch from midnight EDT tonight through Friday morning for CTZ001-013. NY . Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for NYZ058>061- 063>066. MA . Flash Flood Watch from midnight EDT tonight through Friday morning for MAZ001-025. VT . None.

SYNOPSIS . Frugis NEAR TERM . IAA/Wasula SHORT TERM . IAA/Wasula LONG TERM . Frugis AVIATION . Rathbun FIRE WEATHER . Frugis HYDROLOGY . Frugis


Weather Reporting Stations
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On 03/09/2021 the NDBC primary processing servers were shut off due to a facilities issue. Station pages on the NDBC website are not updating and there is no ETR at this time. We will update this banner as we learn more.
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 78 mi58 min Calm 73°F 1012 hPa71°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Schenectady Airport, NY37 mi98 minSE 10 G 1710.00 miOvercast77°F64°F65%1012.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSCH

Wind History from SCH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--S5SE4SE5------------------E4SE10--SE8--SE9
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1 day agoSE3Calm--Calm------------------CalmCalmSE4S7S1319----SE11
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2 days ago--CalmCalmCalm------------------CalmS3S4--S814S10
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Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
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Thu -- 01:44 AM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:23 AM EDT     4.50 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:14 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:59 PM EDT     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:45 PM EDT     4.82 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.2-0.10.723.13.94.54.43.62.61.810.1-0.30.21.6344.64.84.33.32.4

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
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Thu -- 01:35 AM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:15 AM EDT     4.50 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:14 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:49 PM EDT     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:37 PM EDT     4.82 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.1-00.92.23.344.54.33.52.51.60.8-0-0.30.41.83.14.14.74.84.23.22.3

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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