Sunrise 5:38 AM   Sunset 7:58 PM Moonrise 3:56 AM   Moonset 3:56 PM

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LMZ645 North Point Light To Wind Point Wi- 105 Pm Cdt Sat May 4 2024
.dense fog advisory in effect until 7 pm cdt this evening - .
Rest of today - Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Areas of dense fog through the day. Waves around 1 foot. Tonight - South wind 5 to 10 knots veering northwest late in the evening, then rising to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots after midnight. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms through around midnight. Patchy fog through the night. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Sunday - North wind 10 to 15 knots veering northeast early in the afternoon, then becoming east 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Sunday night - East wind 5 to 10 knots easing to 5 knots late in the evening, then backing north after midnight becoming northeast early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 041556 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1056 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- A few strong thunderstorms with hail and gusty winds are possible near & east of I-39 this afternoon.

- Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected during the middle portions of next week.



UPDATE
Issued 1030 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Warmer air and dewpoints over the cooler Lake Michigan waters temps have resulted in a patchy of lower ceilings and some patchy fog, which has crept inland along the lake. With temps continuing to warm and winds picking up, latest visible satellite and webcams trends suggest conditions improving.
However, with persisting onshore flow, it will likely play a role in keeping the lakeshore areas more stable limiting how far east the afternoon/evening storm activity may make it.

Radar continues to show this line holding together late this morning, while the 12z CAMs continue to show a weakening/decaying trend. However, this activity continues to show signs on IR satellite of becoming shallower as it moves into the western portions of the CWA And paired with drier dewpoints, may continue to see it weaken as it moves into our neck of the woods, but scattered, light showers will still be possible for areas west of Madison through the remainder of the morning.

Have been chasing inland temps all morning as they have trended warmer even with the encroaching cloud cover. Given the warmer trends, this will bode more in favor of higher instability this afternoon/evening for any thunderstorms to tap into. Pockets of clearing this afternoon will also aid in the warmer trend. Would not be surprised to see a few spots creep toward 80F this afternoon, especially across southeastern areas closer to the WI/IL border.

Strong Storm Potential this Afternoon/Evening: Continue to see the ingredients present themselves late this morning for the line of showers and thunderstorms to redevelop along the cold frontal boundary this afternoon and evening. The focus of the redevelopment may be associated with a remnant MCV currently located over northeastern MO as it moves northeast into IL paired with the cold front. The 12z HRW NSSL and NAM nest seem to pick up on the northeast MO MCV best and will lean more on those solutions, which timing wise redevelops the shower/thunderstorm activity for southern WI between 20-22z and push east through 00-02z.

Given warmer temps along with dewpoints in the 50s and 60s, SBCAPE is looking increasingly likely to build to the 500-1000 J/kg as the morning models have suggested. Meanwhile shear continue to remain parallel to the front. Thus, still cannot rule out to see a few stronger storms develop along the front.
May see a small window as things re-initiate for some small hall, but given the steeper low-level lapse rates and inverted V model soundings thing the main threat will be pockets of gusty to damaging winds. Would not be surprised to see a severe storm or two embedded within the line, especially for areas along and just north of the WI/IL border. While it is not out a realm of possibility to see a brief spinup within the line, the chances remain very low at this time, up we see some bow feature develop along the line.

Overall, the line of showers and thunderstorm potential continues this afternoon and evening. The main area of concern looks to be a slice from Monroe up through Fond du Lac County down through Lake Geneva/Twin Lakes, excluding the lakefront due to more stable conditions.

Wagner

SHORT TERM
Issued 401 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Today through Sunday:

Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: Early morning surface observations place a surface cold front along an approximate Wichita, KS to Omaha, NE to Rochester, MN axis. Regional radar mosaics show a line of convection extending from southwest IA to northeast KS, with light to moderate rainfall covering much of northwest IA and southwestern MN. This activity has developed thanks to frontogenetic forcing from the aforementioned surface front, as well as upper divergence within an upper jet streak currently analyzed from the Northern Plains to Lake Superior. This area of precip will continue to pivot northeast toward the Mississippi River through sunrise, gradually weakening as it drifts off the most favorable upper jet dynamics & encounters a more stable air mass with eastward extent. A weak surface low will organize over central IA this morning, dragging the previously mentioned cold front across southern Wisconsin later this afternoon and evening. Scattered shower and thunderstorm redevelopment is anticipated along the advancing surface boundary, with the bulk of activity expected to focus near and east of the Interstate 39 Corridor. While widespread severe weather chances are low, an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm can't be ruled out. Precip chances will quickly shift east with the departing surface front this evening. Shortwave ridging will become established in the mid- levels over the Northern Plains on Sunday, with weak high pressure moving across the state at the surface. This will translate to pleasant & quiet weather tomorrow.

Today: Anticipate that at least some of the rainfall currently ongoing to our west will survive to our western zones later this morning/early this afternoon. Given well-established weakening trends, don't envision any of this activity amounting to much more than scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thundershower. With the surface front discussed above pushing in from the west, and peak heating of the day beginning to be realized, anticipate scattered redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms moving into the mid to late afternoon hours. Given frontal positioning near or just east of the I-39 Corridor, most 00Z and 06Z CAM guidance suggests that said redevelopment will focus over the eastern half of the area. While widespread severe weather is not expected, an isolated strong to severe storm can't be ruled out given the presence of ~500-1000 J/kg of surface-based CAPE in a warm sector bounded by the advancing front and the westward-mixing lake breeze. A sampling of forecast hodographs depict modest & largely unidirectional shear profiles, with shear vectors oriented predominantly parallel to the approaching cold front. Thus expect a clustered/messy mode in any redeveloping storms, with hail and gusty winds being the primary hazards in any isolated strong/severe activity given the mid-level lapse rates and deeply-mixed boundary layers sampled in area forecast soundings. Keep an eye on the sky if planning to be outdoors this afternoon, and be sure to move inside if a thunderstorm approaches your area.

Tonight: Precip chances will taper quickly this evening as the cold front pushes east of the region. Some patchy fog is possible near daybreak, particularly over the Wisconsin River Valley.

Quigley

LONG TERM
Issued 401 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Sunday night through Friday:

High pressure is anticipated to expand over the Upper Great Lakes Sunday night ahead of approaching ridging from the Central Plains. This should keep Sunday night through Monday mostly dry, as rain from a weak shortwave in the middle Mississippi Valley will likely stay south, owing to dry air from the high pressure center.

By Monday Night, rain chances will begin to increase as WAA and a weak frontal boundary bring a dying line of storms toward southern Wisconsin. Overnight into Tuesday morning, this line will pass from west to east, with models depicting coverage becoming spotty by the time the line hits the Lake Michigan shoreline.

Through the day on Tuesday, a secondary warm front is then expected to lift north, with another round of thunderstorms forming Tuesday afternoon as a strong 500mb wave and intensifying 850mb jet provides lift over the region. ECMWF and GFS solutions show favorable shear for this event with modeled sfc to 500mb shear around 50 knots, but both models depict differing positions for the secondary warm front Tuesday afternoon. The ECMWF brings it north through most of WI, while the GFS keeps it parked over northern IL, owing to differing evolutions of the formation of a sfc low during that time period. The positioning of this warm front will determine the area of better instability and mode of potential severe weather hazards on Tuesday. For what its worth, 00z CIPS analogs based on the GEFS favor a hail threat (10% chance) mainly along and south of I-94, with no signals in the GEFS for a wind or tornado threat at the moment.

Whatever convection develops over the middle to upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday is expected to push the effective warm front farther south into central IL. At this time, models depict thunderstorm activity staying south of the Wisconsin-Illinois boarder, though some benign showers and a rumble of thunder may occur Wednesday evening as an inverted trough/cold front sinks south over the upper Midwest. This could all change by Wednesday, however, if that warm front isn't pushed as far south as models currently anticipate.

Beyond, details get fuzzy, with the NBM painting broad slight chance to chance PoPs (15% to 35%) into Friday evening, as long range models diverge in their handling of an upper level trough going into the upcoming weekend.

CMiller

AVIATION
Issued 1030 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Onshore flow with warmer temps over cooler Lake Michigan water temps have resulted in low ceilings pushing inland for our near lake terminals along with some patchy fog. This is bring MVFR to LIFR ceilings and visibility to a few spots and may continue for another couple of hours. However, the increasing winds will help limit the visibility impacts, keeping it mostly patchy.
Satellite trends show the thin cloud deck continuing to erode and thinking it should mostly lift or break up through the afternoon.

Otherwise a line of showers and few thunderstorms across southwestern WI continue to show a downward trend in activity as the push east, but may be organized enough for scattered showers move in through the remainder of the morning. Overall not expecting much in the way of aviation impacts as they stay west of the terminals. However, expecting this line to redevelop this afternoon as it works east with the cold front. Looking a a line of showers and thunderstorms likely impacting most southern WI terminals bring moderate to heavy rain, lower visibility and ceilings, and potentiall brief stronger gusty and even some small hail.

Otherwise, expect south-southeasterly winds today through the afternoon before turning west-northwest by the afternoon with the cold frontal passage.

Wagner

MARINE
Issued 401 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Areas of patchy fog are possible from predawn through the morning hours today over the open waters, though confidence regarding the precise placement of any development remains low. Will monitor trends over the next several hours and make forecast adjustments as necessary. A weak, 1012 mb low pressure center will approach from the west today, dragging a cold front across the open waters in the process. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front. Most activity is expected to remain sub- severe, though an isolated strong storm with small hail and gusty winds can't be ruled out. A 1020 mb high pressure will approach from the northern Great Plains on Sunday, resulting in light & variable surface winds across the open waters. Winds will begin to shift out of the east-southeast Monday afternoon & evening as a 984 mb low pressure center develops over the northern Great Plains. Winds will pivot between southeasterly and southwesterly through mid-week, prior to turning out of the north and northwest on Thursday & Friday as a 1002 mb low pressure center moves east of the open waters.
Periods of showers and thunderstorms are forecast from early to mid week, with conditions drying out by the end of the week & beginning of next weekend.

Quigley

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.

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