Sunrise 5:43 AM   Sunset 8:36 PM Moonrise 3:56 PM   Moonset 2:48 AM

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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 821 Am Pdt Sun May 19 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday evening - .
Today - N wind 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Wave detail: nw 4 ft at 5 seconds, nw 4 ft at 9 seconds and sw 2 ft at 18 seconds. A slight chance of rain this morning. Tonight - N wind 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Wave detail: nw 4 ft at 5 seconds, nw 4 ft at 9 seconds and sw 2 ft at 18 seconds. Mon - N wind 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Wave detail: nw 5 ft at 6 seconds, nw 3 ft at 9 seconds and sw 2 ft at 17 seconds. Mon night - N wind 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Wave detail: nw 4 ft at 5 seconds, nw 4 ft at 12 seconds and sw 2 ft at 17 seconds. Tue - N wind 5 to 10 kt, backing to W in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Wave detail: nw 3 ft at 5 seconds, nw 4 ft at 11 seconds and sw 2 ft at 16 seconds. A chance of rain in the afternoon. Tue night - NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Wave detail: nw 2 ft at 4 seconds, nw 5 ft at 7 seconds and sw 2 ft at 15 seconds. A chance of rain. Wed - NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft, building to 7 ft in the afternoon. Wave detail: W 3 ft at 6 seconds, nw 6 ft at 10 seconds and sw 2 ft at 15 seconds. Wed night - NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. Wave detail: nw 7 ft at 9 seconds, W 3 ft at 6 seconds and sw 2 ft at 16 seconds.Thu - N wind 5 to 10 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Wave detail: N 2 ft at 4 seconds, nw 6 ft at 9 seconds and sw 2 ft at 16 seconds. Thu night - N wind 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Wave detail: N 2 ft at 4 seconds, nw 5 ft at 9 seconds and S 2 ft at 15 seconds.

PZZ300 821 Am Pdt Sun May 19 2024
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters - A strong thermal trough along the coast will continue to produce north gales and very steep wind driven seas through Monday evening south of cape blanco. Conditions will be less severe but still hazardous to small craft north of cape blanco.

FXUS66 KMFR 191551 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 851 AM PDT Sun May 19 2024

DISCUSSION

Some mid level clouds are starting to burn off inland, although there is still a fair amount of cloud cover along the central Oregon coast and Cascades. Model guidance suggests some clouds will linger along the coast today with clearing anticipated in most other locations. Temperatures will be around 5 to 15 degrees cooler than yesterday with northern California seeing the biggest decrease. It will be yet another breezy day with some stronger north winds around 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon with gusts up to 20 or 30 mph in the Shasta Valley. Overall, the weather risk remains low in general with fire weather an elevated concern today due to the breezy winds.

-Smith

AVIATION
19/12Z TAFs...Per current satellite observations, a marine surge has made its way inland into northwest portions of the region this morning. Stratus at 4500-5000 feet have mostly banked up against the Rogue-Umpqua Divide and the mountains to the south of the Rogue Valley, resulting in terrain obscurations, along with some more scattered clouds along the Coos County coast. While a period of MVFR is possible at Roseburg towards sunrise, not expecting ceilings to lower too much from where they are now this morning. Clouds will generally dissipate this morning into the afternoon.

Another afternoon of gusty north to northwest winds is in store region-wide through the early evening. Wind speeds will be similar to yesterday's and calm towards the late evening. Another marine surge tonight will result in more scattered to broken stratus decks along the Coos coast and into western valleys, but expecting VFR conditions to continue. -CSP

MARINE
Updated 800 AM Sunday, May 19, 2024...A strong thermal trough along the coast will produce north gales and very steep, wind-driven seas south of Cape Blanco through Monday evening.
Conditions will be less severe, but still hazardous to small craft with breezy north winds and steep seas north of Cape Blanco.

Model guidance continues to suggest periods of off-and-on gales south of Cape Blanco, and a Gale Warning is in place for the areas where these gales are expected to surface. These conditions will be most severe during the afternoon and evening hours each day through Monday with both winds and seas easing late at night into the early morning.

Low pressure approaching from the north will disrupt the thermal trough by Tuesday with winds diminishing and seas becoming dominated by longer period swells. -CSP/Smith

PREV DISCUSSION
/Issued 409 AM PDT Sun May 19 2024/

DISCUSSION...Conditions during the next week will be seasonable, continued breezy during the afternoon and evening hours, a bit cooler, and with the pattern a bit more active. Of particular note are a cold front and associated upper level trough passage Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning with the highest probability of rain, likely for Coos and Douglas counties and northward, and a lower 5-15% probability for northern California.

Higher uncertainty/less run to run consistency accompanies the next trough Friday night into Saturday. There is a near even split in the ensemble data between a weaker or stronger solution in comparison with the earlier trough. But, it is likely to at least start the Memorial Day weekend with slightly below normal to near normal temperatures, near 60 at the coast, lower 70s on the west side, and 60s on the east side.

First, the arrival of a weak trough has brought an elevated stratus deck into southwest Oregon to start the morning. This may produce a few light showers at the Douglas County and Coos County coast, north of Cape Arago. Mid level clouds with bases around 6000 ft agl are likely to linger across Coos and Douglas today, but otherwise clouds will be on the decrease today with highs several degrees cooler than yesterday, and slightly weaker late day breezes...still gusting at 15 to 30 mph.

Weak ridging is expected between troughs on Monday with short lived early morning Coos and Douglas low clouds as the exception to clear skies. This will allow for a modest bump up of high temperatures by a few degrees on the west side, with little change from today for the east side. -DW

LONG TERM...Tuesday morning through Saturday night.

The extended forecast starts out with an upper level wave pushing into the Pacific Northwest from the north. The precipitation chances increase slightly over northern sections of our forecast area with northern California remaining dry on Tuesday. The probability precipitation currently maxes out around 50 percent over the high Cascades with lower probabilities east and west of the Cascades. A cold front will likely accompany this wave and given the time of year, the chance of thunderstorms should be in the cards.
Right now, the probability of thunder is only about 10 percent for most of our Oregon areas, although that could increase as more model data comes in. It seems like the timing is good with the cold front pushing in the evening, which is during the time of max heating.

Temperatures trend roughly 5 degrees lower on Wednesday as some of the cooler air filters in behind the cold front. The upper level low appears to sit right over us. With very little shear, less potential instability and cold air aloft, the weather pattern suggests pop up showers are most likely. The NBM keeps a low 10 to 20 percent chance of precipitation across sections of the forecast area on Wednesday with the best chances east of the Cascades and around Douglas County.

Thursday has a high probability of being a break in the action with an upper level low departing the area. The NBM still is holding on to some low probability of precipitation chances across Oregon.
Perhaps there are a few ensemble members that are keeping the upper level low around, or perhaps the next low is arriving a little earlier.

In any case, the most likely solution is another upper level approaching from the north on Friday with precipitation chances increasing. The whole forecast area has a 10 to 15 percent chance of precipitation on Friday afternoon and evening. Some ensemble members are taking a bit longer to bring the low into southern Oregon and northern California, whereas a smaller majority has it here on Friday.

Overall, an active weather pattern with minimal weather impacts is anticipated in the extended forecast. It's hard to see a lot of instability building under this cooler north to northwest flow that is likely to persist into the weekend. This pattern is likely to change to a southerly flow early next week, but moisture and instability for showers and thunderstorms is most likely to hold off until at least Tuesday.

-Smith/DW

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR
CA
None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376.

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Reedsport
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Sun -- 03:53 AM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:46 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:02 AM PDT     0.84 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:57 AM PDT     4.52 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:02 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:33 PM PDT     1.55 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:39 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:43 PM PDT     6.08 feet High Tide
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Reedsport, Umpqua River, Oregon, Tide feet

Charleston
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Sun -- 03:54 AM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:37 AM PDT     1.23 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:48 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:41 AM PDT     5.43 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:13 PM PDT     2.18 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:02 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:39 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:29 PM PDT     7.12 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Charleston, Oregon, Tide feet

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