Saturday, October16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kittery Point, ME

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 6:00PM Saturday October 16, 2021 4:05 AM EDT (08:05 UTC) Moonrise 4:43PMMoonset 2:26AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ154 Coastal Waters From Cape Elizabeth, Me To Merrimack River, Ma Out 25 Nm- 339 Am Edt Sat Oct 16 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from 8 am edt this morning through Sunday morning...
Today..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt late this morning and afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft this afternoon. A chance of showers early this morning, then a slight chance of showers late this morning.
Tonight..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 foot or less.
ANZ100 339 Am Edt Sat Oct 16 2021
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. A warm front will cross the waters this morning as low pressure passes west of the area. This will be followed by a strong cold front crossing the waters this evening and overnight tonight. Small craft conditions are expected ahead of the front in southerly flow and building seas, followed by a period of small craft conditions in offshore flow late Sunday and Sunday night. Gusty west to northwesterly winds may linger into the middle of the week before diminishing.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kittery Point, ME
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location: 43.06, -70.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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FXUS61 KGYX 160133 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 933 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021

SYNOPSIS. A warm front lifts northward through the area Saturday leading to another unseasonably warm day with breezy southerly winds. A cold front crosses the area Saturday evening into Sunday morning bringing areas of rain, gusty winds, and some thunderstorms. Cooler conditions arrive for the start of the next week with daytime showers in northwest flow. High pressure and quiet weather return for the midweek period.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/. 930 PM Update . Quick update was made, focusing mostly on PoPs as well as fog/drizzle areal coverage for the overnight hours. Fog and low stratus are expected to persist through the night under a very warm and moist airmass. Also, PoPs were adjusted upwards through the overnight hours across portions of southern and central NH based on trends in radar and near-term forecast guidance such as the HRRR and HREF. The rest of the forecast remains on track.

Update . Plenty of moisture across the region overnight with mainly cloudy skies. Some dense fog has moved into the Midcoast region of Maine and have adjusted the near term portion of the weather forecast in terms of fog coverage and low visibilities. Otherwise, most areas are rainfree except for a few light showers in the mountains.

The latest mesoscale models continue to show a few light showers moving across the region tonight, with the precipitation mainly away from the coastline. Have made minor adjustments to the overnight pop forecast as well as temperatures and winds. The latest HREF solution continues to show plenty of low level cloud cover over the region until partial clearing occurs over New Hampshire by Saturday afternoon.

Prev Disc . Frontal boundary bisecting the forecast area will remain nearly stationary through tonight into Saturday morning. Low pressure will be taking shape this afternoon and evening over the Ohio Valley and will deepen tonight as it tracks northeastward thanks to a trough at H5 going slightly negative tilt. As this trough goes negative tilt, it will send a belt of enhance low level southwesterly flow into upstate NY and then western New England by Saturday morning with winds at H7 approaching 50 kts. This belt of enhanced SW flow along with deepening low pressure will send the stationary front northward as a warm front towards daybreak Saturday morning. In the meantime, the stationary boundary will provide a focus for showers tonight, along with plenty of low clouds and patchy fog. Onshore flow on the north side of the stationary boundary coupled with some lift will also bring patchy drizzle along the Mid-Coast into the Capital District of Maine. Lows will generally be in the 50s to low 60s across southern New Hampshire.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/. Saturday morning the boundary will sail northeastward as a warm front and is expected to push through northeastern zones during the afternoon. Showers are expected along and ahead of the front and with PWATs in the 1 to 1.5 inch range they will be capable of some moderate rainfall. Expect a drying trend from SW to NE with skies turning partly cloudy late morning into early afternoon as much of the area becomes enveloped in the warm sector. Southerly winds will also ramp up during the morning as the belt 50 kts winds at 700 mb slides eastward across upstate NY and VT. This belt of winds is expected to weaken slightly as it crosses NH into Maine and with BUFKIT soundings across the area showing a strong inversion around 850 mb expectations are for these strong winds to not mix to the surface. Regardless, it will be breezy with gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range late morning into the afternoon. As much of the area will be within the warm sector highs will climb into the low to mid 70s across much of New hampshire into SW Maine. Northeastern zones will see less sunshine limiting the highs there in the mid 60s.

Late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night low pressure will track northeastward through the St Lawrence Valley dragging a cold front across northern New England. CAMs are in relatively good agreement in developing a broken line of convection along the front in upstate NY Saturday afternoon with this convection forming into a fine line as it tracks into VT late in the afternoon. CAMs start to diverge some with how the fine line holds together as it crosses into New Hampshire. There is also a signal for a secondary belt of enhanced low level winds with the fine line leading to a non-zero threat for strong to damaging winds from any convection that can drag these winds to the surface. SPC has much of New Hampshire into York County outlooked in a Marginal Risk due to this potential for winds. Overall, the timing and convective parameters are not favorable for this line of convection to hold together as it crosses into New Hampshire and am favoring CAM solutions showing this line of convection weakening as it crosses the area. Current line of thinking is that cold front will bring a decent shot of moderate rain with embedded thunder and the potential for the strongest embedded cells to produce 35 to 45 mph wind gusts.

The other potential impact from the cold frontal passage will be the combination of winds along moderate to potentially heavy rain leading to leaves dropping and causing poor drainage issues. Overall QPF amounts are generally under an inch with upwards of 1 to 1.5 inches in the mountains to the International Border.

The cold front will sweep through the area by day break Sunday with any showers confined to the mountains and clearing skies downstream. Northwest winds will pick up in the wake of the front with gusts topping out around 20 mph. Downsloping will help boost temperatures into the mid 60s near the coast while northern areas will see highs only into the 50s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. The active northern stream persists through the next work week with a trough axis crossing early . and another approaching from the west late, punctuated by a mid-week ridge of high pressure building in from the south. Temperatures will run closer to normal during this stretch with daytime highs mostly in the 50s to around 60 degrees, though a warm trend later in the week is expected with flow turning southwesterly. Drier air coming on deep northwest flow allows more room for overnight cooling as well, with lows mostly in the upper-30s (north) and 40s (most other places). A caveat is that day-to-day details are scant at this point given the active pattern and numerous areas of low pressure at play over central and eastern NOAM . thanks to an active Pacific storm track . plus we'll be right on the cusp of a cooler airmass to the north and a warmer airmass to the south. This uncertainty is reflected in the growing ensemble spread in the h850 temperature and h500 height fields from about mid-week onward.

As for details we can tease out . Sunday night through Monday and into Tuesday, after the passage of an attendant surface cold front earlier in the day, an upper level trough axis crosses the region. This will bring a northwest wind and a cold pool aloft, which will produce scattered showers in upslope regions and an uptick in shower chances over the whole region during the daytime with strong mixing. While I expect most mixed or frozen precipitation to stay well up in elevation over the mountains . wet flakes or grains can't be ruled out across northern valleys by early Tuesday as the thermal trough dips across the international border. Strong mixing will also lead to a steady northwesterly breeze these two days . turning blustery during the day, accompanied by a mix of sun and clouds outside of the mountains which will be more overcast in upsloping flow.

Meanwhile troughing over Quebec spars with ridging across the South . the former briefly yielding to the latter Wednesday into Thursday with clearing conditions and a rebound in temperatures, into the mid- 60s for most of the populated corridors. On the flip side a relaxed PGF means overnight temperatures will be coolest through the mid-week period with 30s possible outside of the mountains . though the forecast remains a conservative blend and has values closer to 40, given aforementioned sources of uncertainty. As high pressure shifts east . a warmer southerly flow develops, bringing a warming trend to the area. Major deterministic models are in general agreement WRT a compact shortwave rounding the base of a trough anchored over the Canadian Prairie late this week. The next challenge will be how that compact low ejects over the Northeast and New England. This system will impact us at some point late in the week, but whether we're on the warmer or cooler side . and how strong it will be . is a low-confidence forecast at this time.

AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Short Term . MVFR and IFR conditions will deteriorate further tonight to IFR/LIFR in lowering cigs and reduced visibility in patchy fog and SHRA. Warm front lifts north through the area Saturday with conditions improving to MVFR and VFR from SW to NE late morning into the afternoon. Southerly winds increase ahead of a cold front during the day with gusts to 20kts. Cold front brings RA with some TSRA Saturday evening and overnight with a return to IFR conditions likely. Conditions improve to VFR Sunday in clearing skies

Long Term . Northwest flow persists through the first half of next week and becomes gusty during the day. For restrictions, MVFR/local IFR is possible for KHIE/KLEB with very brief restrictions possible elsewhere in -shra. VFR persists otherwise.

MARINE. Short Term . Southerly winds increase Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front with SCA conditions likely around day break. Cold front crosses the waters Saturday night with winds shifting out of the NW. Winds and seas will drop below SCA conditions Sunday morning with potential for SCA to redevelop in NW winds Sunday afternoon.

Long Term . Low pressure very gradually exits to the northeast through the first half of the next week with a steady offshore wind. Given the pattern and still-warm SSTs one could expect at least a short period of SCAs with gusty winds over the outer waters and maybe the bays. Broad high pressure builds back out over the waters by about Thursday with winds and seas diminishing.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ME . None. NH . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Saturday to 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ150>154.



NEAR TERM . Cannon/Tubbs


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CMLN3 1 mi181 min WNW 9.9 86°F 68°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 7 mi80 min ESE 1 64°F 1011 hPa64°F
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 8 mi65 min S 16G17 64°F 1009.9 hPa (-1.0)64°F
44073 9 mi181 min 12G12
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 17 mi121 min S 12G14 62°F 62°F3 ft1011.4 hPa
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 19 mi47 min S 7G8.9 63°F 63°F1010.4 hPa
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 21 mi65 min S 2.9 63°F 62°F
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 33 mi39 min 61°F3 ft
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 38 mi121 min S 12G14 63°F 2 ft1011 hPa
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 44 mi35 min S 14G16 61°F 1009.8 hPa59°F
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 48 mi47 min 62°F 61°F
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 49 mi35 min S 9.7G12 63°F1011.5 hPa

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pease Air Force Base / Portsmouth, NH7 mi69 minSSE 44.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist63°F62°F95%1011.1 hPa
Rochester - Skyhaven Airport, NH19 mi74 minS 34.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist62°F62°F100%1010 hPa
Sanford, Sanford Regional Airport, ME23 mi69 minVar 35.00 miFog/Mist62°F62°F100%1010.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPSM

Wind History from PSM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr00E3E5SE4SE4E4S3SE4E5SE6E8SE8SE8E5E5SE5E4000SE4S5S4
1 day ago00000W3NW5NW7N9N5SE30SW3E5SE50E30E300000
2 days ago00SW3SW30W30SW4SW6SW8S6S7SE8SE9SE6S5S4SW3SW3SW4SW5SW400

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Point, Portsmouth Harbor, New Hampshire
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Fort Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:26 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:34 AM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:50 AM EDT     8.56 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:55 PM EDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:43 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:06 PM EDT     9.15 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Portsmouth Harbor Entrance, New Hampshire Current
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Portsmouth Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:42 AM EDT     -1.82 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 02:26 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:23 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:15 AM EDT     1.01 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 10:16 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:36 PM EDT     -1.61 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:43 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:46 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 06:56 PM EDT     0.90 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 07:26 PM EDT     0.90 knots Min Flood
Sat -- 08:31 PM EDT     0.93 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 10:30 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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