Saturday, October23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lyons, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 6:12PM Saturday October 23, 2021 3:47 PM EDT (19:47 UTC) Moonrise 6:53PMMoonset 9:27AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 428 Am Edt Sat Oct 23 2021
Today..Northwest winds 10 knots or less. A chance of waterspouts. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..West winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. A chance of waterspouts. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A chance of waterspouts in the morning. A chance of showers in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east 15 to 20 knots. Rain. Patchy fog overnight. Waves 2 feet or less building to 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north. Patchy fog during the day. Occasional rain during the day, then occasional rain and drizzle Monday night. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tuesday..North winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Occasional rain and drizzle during the day, then scattered showers Tuesday night. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Scattered showers during the day. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 64 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:202110231500;;127201 FZUS51 KBUF 230828 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 428 AM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-231500-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lyons, NY
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location: 43.06, -77     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 231811 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 211 PM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cool airmass will remain in place through the weekend, supporting a few periods of lake effect rain showers east of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Low pressure will then slowly move from the Ohio Valley late Sunday to the eastern Great Lakes Monday and Tuesday, bringing periods of rain to the entire region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. Cool conditions continue this afternoon with readings mainly in the 40s to lower 50s. A few light showers are crossing the Southern Tier with weak shortwave and sfc wave sliding across. Rain amounts mostly a hundredth or two at most. Also have a weakening band of ene flow lake effect hugging south shore of Lake Ontario with H85 temps sufficient at -2c to -4c, though majority of rain has remained offshore thus far today.

After initial wave crossing this morning slides east, another wave bringing showers to eastern Michigan and Lake Erie will bring another round of showers to western NY into the early evening. Most persistent rain will be closer to Lake Erie with developing southwest flow leading to lake enhancement with H85 temps around -1c. Some of these showers may reach into the Buffalo Metro before ending well after midnight. All the while, lake effect off Lake Ontario will reorganize and eventually shift to the southeast portion of the lake as winds turn more westerly. Temps late tonight away from the lakes could drop into the mid or upper 30s (low 30s east of Lake Ontario) so some patchy frost could occur.

On Sunday, some southwest flow lingering lake effect will occur east of Lake Ontario, but rest of morning will be dry as sfc high moves off east coast and warm front develops over the northern Ohio Valley. As clouds thicken by midday, soundings indicate deep moisture and lift above 5kft along the NY/PA state line. Expect rain to develop by mid afternoon, slowly spreading northward toward I-90 corridor from Buffalo to Rochester by late day. Highs on Sunday will range from the upper 40s over high terrain east of Lake Ontario to the low-mid 50s on the lake plains. Temps over the Southern Tier will barely reach above 50 with thicker clouds and rain arriving there earlier in the day.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. . Soaking Rainfall Expected During This Period .

Sfc low pressure center over the Midwest will bring increasing chances for precipitation beginning late Sunday that is anticipated to last into Tuesday. A tightening H850 thermal gradient (baroclinic zone) extending east from the parent sfc low will become the main focus for a soaking rainfall as a +40 knot H850 low level jet and favorable upper level jet dynamics interact with this boundary Sunday night into Monday. Sfc low pressure gradually heads east Monday arriving across the Ohio Valley by days end. Guidance slows and then weakens the parent sfc low while transferring energy to the Mid-Atlantic coast as a new sfc low forms by Tuesday morning. Early rainfall estimates through 12Z Tuesday (36 hour period) will range from 1.5-1.75 inches across far Western NY into the Finger Lakes, to 1.0-1.25 inches across the eastern Lake Ontario region. As the system transfers to the coast, the baroclinic zone will then pull back through our forecast area with the corresponding deformation area supporting additional rains on Tuesday. Rains taper off to showers late Tuesday into Tuesday night as the vertically stacked storm system near Long Island will start to circulate drier mid level air back across our region.

As was previously mentioned, other than very localized issues of leaf clogged drainage systems the long duration of the rains is not expected to be a problem for local tributaries. Six hour FFG is in the vcnty of 2 inches, so this soaking rain should only lead to notable rises rather than impactful hydro issues.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/.

There is quite a bit of model variability in the long term for both the exiting of the early week system . and the timing, placement and depth of the next large scale low. As such will lean heavily towards the NBM guidance with this forecast package.

The 12Z GFS is faster with the departure of the upper level low and it's surface reflection Wednesday than the 00Z ECMWF/Canadian. As a result a few rain showers could linger into early Wednesday, especially eastward, before a ridge of high pressure reaches our region. Models have trended weaker with this ridge, as well as amount of dry air . such that later Wednesday and into Wednesday night may be rather cloudy, albeit still dry.

Given the uncertainty in the mid part of the forecast, the global models will diverge even further with the evolution of the next long wave trough for the end of this forecast period. Will lean towards a model consensus . with likely rain showers Friday through Saturday . that could arrive as early as Thursday Night in the west. This deep trough and ample moisture will likely bring another round of soaking rain . with details becoming clearer as we get closer to the event.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. A trough crossing the eastern Great Lakes this afternoon will bring a better chance of rain showers to Western NY later today into this evening, mainly from KBUF southward into the Southern Tier where lake enhancement will develop. This will bring some VSBY restriction in heavier showers and also bring a period of more widespread MVFR CIGS. Elsewhere at KROC and KART, mainly VFR will prevail through this afternoon. Tonight, VFR with MVFR possible in any lake showers.

Outlook .

Sunday . VFR/MVFR with a chance of mainly lake showers at KART early, then steady rain moving into the region from the south in the afternoon resulting in IFR conditions late in the day.

Sunday night and Monday . Widespread IFR in rain and areas of fog. Tuesday . MVFR/IFR with showers likely. Wednesday . Mainly VFR with a chance of showers. Thursday . Mainly VFR.

MARINE. A relatively weak pressure gradient will be in place through Sunday with light winds. Low pressure will then move into the Ohio Valley late Sunday before moving into the eastern Great Lakes by late Monday. Northeast winds will increase on Lakes Erie and Ontario as this system approaches, likely bringing Small Craft Advisory conditions Sunday night through Monday night.

A cold airmass and a few periods of lake effect showers will bring the chance of waterspouts through Sunday on Lakes Erie and Ontario.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . Hitchcock NEAR TERM . JLA SHORT TERM . AR/RSH LONG TERM . Thomas AVIATION . EAJ/Hitchcock/SW MARINE . EAJ/Hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 35 mi48 min WNW 5.1G8 49°F 1016.6 hPa
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 36 mi60 min 48°F
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 38 mi60 min W 8.9G12 48°F 1014.8 hPa41°F
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 44 mi28 min NW 5.8G7.8 59°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Penn Yan, Penn Yan Airport, NY28 mi55 minNNE 56.00 miLight Rain47°F40°F77%1015.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPEO

Wind History from PEO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW8N7N45NW3--4SE50055SW3S4S4SE43S3S34550N5
1 day agoS86SE4S8S4SW6SW6S9SW7SW11SW13SW9SW8W10W7
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2 days agoW90NW30S4S4W3W3SW5SW5SW7SW8SW6SW6SW7SW6SW5SW7S7SW6SW5S8S13
G21
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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