Tuesday, September28, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Minoa, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 6:52PM Tuesday September 28, 2021 1:19 PM EDT (17:19 UTC) Moonrise 10:13PMMoonset 1:31PM Illumination 52% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:202109281515;;300844 Fzus51 Kbuf 280822 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 422 Am Edt Tue Sep 28 2021 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-281515- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 422 Am Edt Tue Sep 28 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until 2 pm edt this afternoon...
Today..Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. Partly to mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..North winds 5 to 15 knots diminishing to less than 10 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Friday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. The water temperature off rochester is 66 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Minoa, NY
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location: 43.07, -76     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 281354 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 954 AM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021

SYNOPSIS. Scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms are expected through the early afternoon, mainly across Northeast Pennsylvania and bordering counties of New York. Gradual clearing occurs behind the front this afternoon into evening. Chilly upper level low pressure then drops across the Northeast Wednesday through Friday, causing below average temperatures.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. 950 AM Update:

Made some adjustments to PoPs for the remainder of this morning to account for greater coverage of showers and a few thunderstorms across portions of Northeast PA than previously forecast. Threat for severe weather remains south and east of our forecast area, but still cannot rule out an isolated storm across Northeast PA that may contain gusty winds and/or small hail. The rest of the forecast remains on track and no other changes were made.

700 AM Update . A larger batch of thunderstorms has developed in Central PA. Though most of that will remain south, there is also a smaller cluster in the western Southern Tier of NY, which will carry across the Twin Tiers to Scranton areas this morning, as well as another cell in the Poconos. Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated, though cloud-to-ground lightning and a few gusts of 25-35 mph are not out of the question.

Previous discussion . Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are anticipated mainly from the Twin Tiers and Catskills southward this morning through midday as a cold front slips through the region.

The front as of 4 AM has reached the around the Finger Lakes to just south of the Mohawk Valley where a few spotty showers have already occurred. It stretches back to Northwest PA-Central OH. An elevated mixed layer is yielding steeper temperature lapse rates aloft, and that instability is producing a few convective cells from Western NY into Central PA; even scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in Southwest PA. In late morning-early afternoon, some diurnal heating along with a lingering elevated mixed layer plume will help initiate new convection clusters along the front as it finishes its trek through Northeast PA- Sullivan County NY. A few of those cells could contain gusty winds. However, the severe risk will be more focused towards Southeast PA-NJ where timing and placement of the front will more favorably harness afternoon heating. Meanwhile, most of Central NY dries out behind the front this afternoon with gradual clearing. Highs will be limited to lower-mid 60s behind the front, but Wyoming County/Poconos PA to Sullivan County NY will manage more upper 60s-lower 70s before the front advects in cooler air.

Dry and cool conditions are forecast for tonight; but with a northwest flow developing, lake effect clouds will persist a bit southeast of Lake Ontario. Farther to the south, patchy valley fog is expected with decent radiational cooling conditions setting up. Lows will be mainly 40-46, but at least some upper 30s are likely to occur especially in our typically coolest spots of Oneida-Otsego-Delaware-Sullivan counties.

For Wednesday, a strong chilly upper level low will drop out of Quebec and into New England. Broad cyclonic flow around it will send a secondary front through the area, reinforcing cold air advection to limit highs to mostly lower to mid 60s; even upper 50s in highest terrain. This would be roughly 3-6 degrees below climatology. The instability of cold air aloft and secondary frontal passage are likely to generate a stratocumulus field especially for Central New York; perhaps even a few spotty showers. Overall though we are looking at a mostly dry and cool day with blustery northwest winds frequently gusting 15-20 mph, and at least partial sunshine.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. 330 AM Update . An upper level low over New England continues to advect cooler air into our region Wednesday night. 850 mb temperatures fall to the singe digits above 0C which is cold enough for some lake effect rain showers and clouds, especially in the Finger Lakes region. The upper low does not move much on Thursday so the cloudy weather as well as isolated lake effect rain showers continue through much of the morning before drying in the afternoon. NE PA dries out earlier being so far from the lakes so chances of precipitation were removed.

A surface high settles over the region Thursday night with clearing skies and efficient radiational cooling. Temperatures were dropped a little below the NBM, mixing in about 20% of the 10th percentile to get lows down into the low 40s and upper 30s. Right now there is no frost that was put in the forecast given only a few higher valleys of the Catskills and Tug Hill have lows 36 degrees or colder but is something we will be watching over the next few days. Friday is shaping up to be a nice fall day with the high pressure slowly moving NE and some slightly warmer air moves in aloft as it rotates around the large upper low in eastern Canada north of Maine.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. 330 AM Update . Overall there is a lot of uncertainty in the long range due to the proximity of the large upper level low. It begins to become cut off early this weekend with waves of vorticity rotating around it. While the GFS keeps our region dry, the Euro wants to bring in a round of precipitation. This is mainly due to a difference in where the cut off low ends up with the Euro further west. As of now, a slight chance of precipitation was kept north of the Southern Tier for this weekend for now.

Sunday into Monday there is a warm front approaching from the SW and is expected to slow and stall. Once again, there is discrepancy on where this front will stall with the GFS having the front stall SW of us keeping us cool and dry while the Euro has the front reaching our region before stalling, bringing prolonged rain showers and clouds into mid week. Given that the GFS and GEFS have been a bit better in the mid range recently, that solution was kept though some minor adjustments may be made as the euro ensembles come in. While the precipitation is uncertain for the long term, there is confidence that a slow warming trend occurs through next week as that warm air slowly makes its way into our region. Still no good chances of any widespread frost or freezes into early October.

AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. A cold front is pressing southeast across the terminals this morning, with showers and a few thunderstorms for KELM-KBGM and eventually KAVP. Behind the front, a period of fuel alternate ceilings will occur before scattering and lift to VFR in mid to late morning KSYR-KRME; around midday KITH-KBGM-KELM; and by mid afternoon KAVP. Variable or light southwest wind, will also veer northwesterly 5-10 knots behind the front for most of today. Scattered lake clouds are anticipated later tonight southeast of Lake Ontario, but winds should decouple enough for valley fog formation at KELM.

Outlook .

Wednesday through Wednesday evening . VFR, other than brief early morning valley fog at KELM.

Late Wednesday night through Thursday morning . Secondary front passes with some ceiling restrictions; mainly the NY terminals.

Thursday afternoon through Saturday . Mainly VFR, other than possible late night-early morning valley fog at KELM.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . BJG/MDP NEAR TERM . BJG/MDP SHORT TERM . AJG LONG TERM . AJG AVIATION . MDP


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 38 mi49 min N 8 G 13 56°F 1013.5 hPa46°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 86 mi19 min N 9.9 G 17 56°F 1015.9 hPa (+0.3)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 87 mi49 min 58°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY7 mi25 minWNW 1210.00 miPartly Cloudy66°F48°F52%1012.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSYR

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW9SW13W12W7W5NW9CalmS3S6SW6SW3SW3W3W5NW6NW8NW7NW7NW7NW8NW9CalmN11NW12
1 day agoSW14
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NW11W8W5SW6SW6SW4SW4CalmS5S6S3SE4SW9SW8SW10SW10S11S7S9SW11SW9
2 days agoW5SE6S7S8S7SE6S6SW4W9W9W8W11SW10W8W9W7SW7SW5SW6W11W12W14W12
G18
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Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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