Saturday, October23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mattydale, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:27AMSunset 6:10PM Saturday October 23, 2021 3:51 PM EDT (19:51 UTC) Moonrise 6:49PMMoonset 9:23AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:202110231500;;127201 Fzus51 Kbuf 230828 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 428 Am Edt Sat Oct 23 2021 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-231500- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 428 Am Edt Sat Oct 23 2021
Today..Northwest winds 10 knots or less. A chance of waterspouts. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..West winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. A chance of waterspouts. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A chance of waterspouts in the morning. A chance of showers in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east 15 to 20 knots. Rain. Patchy fog overnight. Waves 2 feet or less building to 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north. Patchy fog during the day. Occasional rain during the day, then occasional rain and drizzle Monday night. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tuesday..North winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Occasional rain and drizzle during the day, then scattered showers Tuesday night. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Scattered showers during the day. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 64 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mattydale, NY
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location: 43.11, -76.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 231830 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 230 PM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021

SYNOPSIS. A weak upper level disturbance will pass east of the region tonight taking scattered light showers and sprinkles with it. Most of Sunday will be dry as a small area of high pressure quickly moves through the Middle Atlantic States. A low pressure system will track into the midwest Sunday night and lift a warm front across NY and PA. This will lead to widespread rain Sunday night to Monday morning. The front will lift north of the region by Monday afternoon with fair and mild weather expected. The midwest low will then track east and move very slowly leading to unsettled weather Tuesday and Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. For the rest of this afternoon, upper level short wave will continue to move east-northeast around an upper level low just south of James Bay Canada. This feature has scattered rain showers associated with it which were moving through central NY and northeast PA at this time. The coverage was most extensive in northeast PA to the Catskills where POPs will be the highest this afternoon. This upper level wave will move east of the region this evening and all shower activity will taper down overnight. Skies will likely clear for a time overnight leading to patchy valley fog and some frost in our normally colder valleys.

Then for Sunday, the above mentioned upper level low will drop southward into the Upper Great Lakes as a vigorous short wave ploughs east into the central Plains. This next wave combined with the upper level low over the Upper Lakes will lead to strong upper confluence and an upper level jet over Northern New England and southeast Canada. This will put central NY and northeast PA in a right entrance region jet streak circulation. This will result in strong low-level thermal advection/isentropic lift spreading rapidly over NY and PA Sunday and Sunday night. As a result, clouds will be on the increase especially Sunday afternoon and we expect a swath of rain to lift northeastward across northeast PA and central NY from late afternoon Sunday to early Monday morning. Models indicate around .5" to .75" of QPF by 12z Monday with the NAM12 a little heavier, closer to 1". These amounts should not cause any significant flood problems at least thru 12z Monday. POPs will be near 100 percent for Sunday night.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. 320 am update . Main concerns in the short term are focused on a deepening low pressure system that will track across the southern Great Lakes into the Northeast. This storm system is expected to bring an extended period of steady rain to central NY and ne PA through the early part of next week . and gusty winds on Tuesday.

The synoptic pattern will start out with two branches of embedded short waves that will eventually phase together as they enter the Northeast. The southern wave will have a much warmer air mass associated with it and will also be able to tap into a rich air mass from the Gulf of Mexico. The northern branch will be cooler and drier . and become the dominant feature that will absorb the incoming s/w from the west. The overall result will be to enhance the baroclinicity of the system as the cold air from Canada gets drawn down from the north and the warm/moist air mass from the south advects northward across the mid Atlantic. These two differing air masses will pivot around each other as a singular upper low takes shape and a surface low starts to deepen to the east of the upper low near ern PA/NJ by early Tuesday.

As the system propagates to the east Sunday night and early Monday, a warm front extending to the east of the surface low will lift to the north. With the moisture source and relatively strong layer lifting along the front, an enhanced area of steady rain will move south to north across the region through Monday morning. As much as a half to 1 inch of rain is possible during this time. The warm front is expected to stall out and become positioned from wrn NY to n-central NY. This baroclinic zone will become the pivoting axis for the storm as the cold air pushes in on the back side, the system occludes and the warm air sets up over ern PA/ern NY Mon afternoon.

The air mass is expected to be warm enough to allow temperatures to top out in the low to mid 60s in ne PA . but only into the upper 50s near 60 in central NY Monday afternoon. If there are any breaks in the clouds there could be some spots even warmer, into the upper 60s. This could also lead to some enhanced areas of instability and potentially a few weak thunderstorms . but confidence is not high enough to add to the forecast at this time.

There are still some timing differences concerning when the cold air will arrive behind this system. Model guidance is also in disagreement in the movement of this system to the east. It could be a slow exit east with multiple weak waves embedded in the cyclonic flow rotating through the region and the warm air overtaking the remaining wedge of cold air to the west. The consensus appears to be a persistent area of rain Monday night and through the day Tuesday. Temperatures will be on the cool side Tuesday after a warm Monday. Highs will only top out in the upper 40s and lower to mid 50s.

Winds on the back side of the system may also become quite gusty during the day Tuesday. Could see sustained nw winds around 15 mph and gusts 20 to 30 mph at times.

Rainfall amounts should be significant during this period, but with limited to no impacts likely due to the lower rainfall rates expected. Total amounts could reach 1 to 2 inches in some locations of the Finger Lakes and southern Tug Hill, but this will occur over a long enough time period to limit impacts. Areas to the south will see a half to 1 inch during this period.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. 320 am update . The rain will likely continue to linger but slowly move east out of the area Tuesday night. Additional rainfall amounts will be light. A period of relatively dry conditions should set up Wed and Wed night with a wedge of drier air within a weak ridge of high pressure. The air mass is expected to warm and create milder temperatures heading into the latter half of the week. The next low pressure system should begin to move in from the w/sw Thursday or Friday. Model guidance is still in disagreement with the timing/onset of the rain on Thursday . and even into early Friday, but it appears by late Friday going into the weekend, the system slows down and drops rain across most of the region.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Conditions will be mainly VFR through the afternoon and tonight with patchy MVFR in showers this afternoon until 20-22z at KELM, KBGM and KAVP. Then tonight and Sunday morning we will see scattered to broken clouds that are low VFR. At times there will be enough scattered clouds that we will see patchy valley fog so we went with IFR at KELM 09z-12z. Then after 12z Sunday we will see VFR as higher clouds increase.

Winds will be light and mainly 5 knots or less.

Winds during this period will be calm at all terminals.

Outlook .

Sunday . Mainly VFR.

Sunday night through Monday . Frontal zone sets up; favorable for waves of rain and restrictions.

Monday night through Thursday . Chilly showery low pressure system pivots over region, again with likely restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . DJN NEAR TERM . DJN SHORT TERM . BJT LONG TERM . BJT AVIATION . DJN


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 31 mi63 min W 8.9G12 48°F 1014.8 hPa41°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 77 mi51 min WNW 5.1G8 49°F 1016.6 hPa
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 78 mi63 min 48°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY2 mi57 minWNW 710.00 miLight Rain51°F40°F66%1014.6 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY21 mi57 minW 310.00 miOvercast48°F39°F71%1015 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSYR

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW7NW8NW700000SE3S3S3S3S3S3SW4S3E30SW3W40SW6W5W7
1 day agoSW13SW7SE4S7S3SE6S10
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2 days agoW9W12W6W5W7SW8SW3SW8SW5SW6S3SW300S300000S5SE5S12S12

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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