Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for South Eliot, ME
May 19, 2024 7:18 PM EDT (23:18 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:13 AM Sunset 8:05 PM Moonrise 4:19 PM Moonset 3:18 AM |
ANZ154 Coastal Waters From Cape Elizabeth, Me To Merrimack River, Ma Out 25 Nm- 530 Pm Edt Sun May 19 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 am edt Monday - .
Tonight - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late this evening and overnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Wave detail: E 5 ft at 8 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight, decreasing to 1 nm or less.
Mon - NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas around 4 ft. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 8 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 nm or less.
Mon night - S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 8 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Tue - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Tue night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 9 seconds and S 3 ft at 4 seconds.
Wed - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 3 ft at 9 seconds.
Wed night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thu night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri - SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
ANZ100 530 Pm Edt Sun May 19 2024
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm a weak area of low pressure drifts east of the waters overnight high pressure gradually builds along the eastern seaboard through the middle of the week. A cold front then approaches and passes through on Thursday. High pressure builds in from the north going into the the weekend.
Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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FXUS61 KGYX 192128 AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 528 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
Clouds and fog are expected again tonight as high pressure gradually builds into the region. This high pressure should clear things out tomorrow and then dominate through early next week allowing for some seasonably warm temperatures.
Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and then the next chance for widespread showers will be Wednesday into Thursday as a cold front approaches. An upper level trough will keep scattered showers over the region Friday. High pressure builds in from the north next weekend, bringing a return to cooler conditions.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
530 PM Update... KGYX radar is showing some weak returns over portions of interior southwestern ME south of the mountains as well as over east-central NH. Given the nearly saturated column this could result in some patchy drizzle and therefore went ahead and added this into the forecast through early this evening. Otherwise, just loaded in the latest sfc observations at this time.
Previously...
Impacts: *No significant weather impacts expected
Latest RAP13 analysis shows a 500 mb ridge and surface high pressure building into the area at this hour. However, much of the area remains under the influence of moist northeast flow which is helping to keep cloud cover thick this evening. Since expected cloud cover has increased, I went ahead and increased low temperatures for tonight. Patchy fog and clouds will keep temperatures in the low 50s most places.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Impacts: * No significant weather impacts expected
Skies are expected to be much clearer by tomorrow morning as the 500 mb ridge and surface high pressure become better established over the region. We should have a decently mixed day over much of the region taking full advantage of the near 12C 850 mb temperatures. Expecting mid to upper 70s across most of the area with points along the Connecticut River Valley maybe even seeing 80. The coast may end up very disappointed as winds turn onshore and cool marine air gets trapped under a steep temperature inversion. As of now I have 60s on the coastal plain, but this will have to be watched closely.
After a very warm day temperatures look to only drop into the low to mid 50s with the coast a bit cooler in the upper 40s, due to the cool onshore flow. The trapped marine air would also give the coastal plain a good chance at another night with patchy fog.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Overview... A building ridge along the Eastern Seaboard brings very warm conditions for much of the week, peaking midweek.
Residual convection riding around the ridge brings a few chances for showers and storms over several days, with the greatest chance on Thursday as a cold front approaches from the north.
Relatively cooler air returns by late in the week and the weekend.
Details...
The heat continues to build on Tuesday with southerly flow.
Temps warm into the 80s in most spots, with highs near 90 across southern New Hampshire. The coast remains cooler again on Tuesday, with highs mainly in the 70s, and 60s along the MidCoast. Some of the high res guidance is starting to suggest that the convection from today's severe outbreak will be rounding the ridge and moving into northern New England by late in the day and into Tuesday night. While it's difficult to have high confidence in such a convection-driven system from a couple days out, models have had a tendency to under-do these features over the last few weeks. It's certainly worth watching, and is the reasoning to raise POPs above NBM across northern areas Tuesday evening. Should this convection materialize, it's also likely to have an impact on temperatures across northern spots going into Wednesday.
Wednesday looks to be the peak of the heat, with temps warming into the low 90s across much of southern and western NH, and 80s elsewhere. Even the southern coastlines warm into the 80s with southwesterly flow, while the MidCoast warms into the 70s. As mentioned, there's a little less certainty across the north on high temps where leftover morning convection could limit how high temps rise. Scattered afternoon showers and storms are also likely across northern areas Wednesday afternoon. There will be another deteriorating MCS rounding the ridge again Wednesday night, but similar to the previous night's it's unclear at this point how robust this system will be by the time it reaches New England.
Thursday remains warm, but with a downward trend in temps underway. A cold front moves through during the daytime, with some showers and storms accompanying it, especially across the higher terrain. Thursday likely ends up be the warmest day for the MidCoast, with winds turning westerly in the afternoon and warming temps into the upper 70s to near 80. 80s are expected elsewhere, with one more day in the upper 80s across southern NH.
Behind the cold front, temps still look fairly warm downwind of the mountains on Friday. Temps warm into the 70s in most spots, with highs near 80 across southern NH. The mountains likely see more cloud cover and get deeper into the cooler airmass, keeping highs in the 60s.
Right now the weekend looks cooler as high pressure noses in from the north, but the warmth won't be far off to the south.
The high is not overly strong, and has been trending a bit weaker since yesterday. Should this trend continue, then the weekend would likely end up warmer with highs in the 70s, rather than the 60s. This forecast follows closer to that trend, but acknowledges that we could end up with a boundary of airmasses within the CWA This is one more item to monitor over the coming days.
AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Short Term...Ceilings are expected to stay MVFR/IFR through this evening, before continuing to lower and trending most terminals toward IFR/LIFR again tonight. Patchy fog may develop again tonight as well. Conditions look to improve to VFR across most of the area Monday. The only exception would be along the coast where the marine layer may get trapped and keep ceilings lower. Winds remain light through the period.
Long Term...Mainly VFR conditions are expected at most terminals Tuesday through Thursday. Some coastal fog is possible at times at RKD Wednesday and Thursday. Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms bring brief restrictions Tuesday through Thursday across northern terminals, with a lesser chance of showers and storms elsewhere. VFR conditions likely return by next weekend.
MARINE
Short Term...SCA seas are expected to gradually subside overnight, and end up below thresholds for Monday. SCA conditions are not expected through Monday night. Onshore winds will be gusting around 10-15 kts Monday.
Long Term...High pressure builds along the Eastern Seaboard this week, bringing increasing south to southwesterly flow.
Areas of dense marine fog are possible by midweek. Some SCA conditions are possible by Thursday with increasing southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching cold front. High pressure then builds across the waters going into the weekend.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ150-152-154.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 528 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
Clouds and fog are expected again tonight as high pressure gradually builds into the region. This high pressure should clear things out tomorrow and then dominate through early next week allowing for some seasonably warm temperatures.
Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and then the next chance for widespread showers will be Wednesday into Thursday as a cold front approaches. An upper level trough will keep scattered showers over the region Friday. High pressure builds in from the north next weekend, bringing a return to cooler conditions.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
530 PM Update... KGYX radar is showing some weak returns over portions of interior southwestern ME south of the mountains as well as over east-central NH. Given the nearly saturated column this could result in some patchy drizzle and therefore went ahead and added this into the forecast through early this evening. Otherwise, just loaded in the latest sfc observations at this time.
Previously...
Impacts: *No significant weather impacts expected
Latest RAP13 analysis shows a 500 mb ridge and surface high pressure building into the area at this hour. However, much of the area remains under the influence of moist northeast flow which is helping to keep cloud cover thick this evening. Since expected cloud cover has increased, I went ahead and increased low temperatures for tonight. Patchy fog and clouds will keep temperatures in the low 50s most places.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Impacts: * No significant weather impacts expected
Skies are expected to be much clearer by tomorrow morning as the 500 mb ridge and surface high pressure become better established over the region. We should have a decently mixed day over much of the region taking full advantage of the near 12C 850 mb temperatures. Expecting mid to upper 70s across most of the area with points along the Connecticut River Valley maybe even seeing 80. The coast may end up very disappointed as winds turn onshore and cool marine air gets trapped under a steep temperature inversion. As of now I have 60s on the coastal plain, but this will have to be watched closely.
After a very warm day temperatures look to only drop into the low to mid 50s with the coast a bit cooler in the upper 40s, due to the cool onshore flow. The trapped marine air would also give the coastal plain a good chance at another night with patchy fog.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Overview... A building ridge along the Eastern Seaboard brings very warm conditions for much of the week, peaking midweek.
Residual convection riding around the ridge brings a few chances for showers and storms over several days, with the greatest chance on Thursday as a cold front approaches from the north.
Relatively cooler air returns by late in the week and the weekend.
Details...
The heat continues to build on Tuesday with southerly flow.
Temps warm into the 80s in most spots, with highs near 90 across southern New Hampshire. The coast remains cooler again on Tuesday, with highs mainly in the 70s, and 60s along the MidCoast. Some of the high res guidance is starting to suggest that the convection from today's severe outbreak will be rounding the ridge and moving into northern New England by late in the day and into Tuesday night. While it's difficult to have high confidence in such a convection-driven system from a couple days out, models have had a tendency to under-do these features over the last few weeks. It's certainly worth watching, and is the reasoning to raise POPs above NBM across northern areas Tuesday evening. Should this convection materialize, it's also likely to have an impact on temperatures across northern spots going into Wednesday.
Wednesday looks to be the peak of the heat, with temps warming into the low 90s across much of southern and western NH, and 80s elsewhere. Even the southern coastlines warm into the 80s with southwesterly flow, while the MidCoast warms into the 70s. As mentioned, there's a little less certainty across the north on high temps where leftover morning convection could limit how high temps rise. Scattered afternoon showers and storms are also likely across northern areas Wednesday afternoon. There will be another deteriorating MCS rounding the ridge again Wednesday night, but similar to the previous night's it's unclear at this point how robust this system will be by the time it reaches New England.
Thursday remains warm, but with a downward trend in temps underway. A cold front moves through during the daytime, with some showers and storms accompanying it, especially across the higher terrain. Thursday likely ends up be the warmest day for the MidCoast, with winds turning westerly in the afternoon and warming temps into the upper 70s to near 80. 80s are expected elsewhere, with one more day in the upper 80s across southern NH.
Behind the cold front, temps still look fairly warm downwind of the mountains on Friday. Temps warm into the 70s in most spots, with highs near 80 across southern NH. The mountains likely see more cloud cover and get deeper into the cooler airmass, keeping highs in the 60s.
Right now the weekend looks cooler as high pressure noses in from the north, but the warmth won't be far off to the south.
The high is not overly strong, and has been trending a bit weaker since yesterday. Should this trend continue, then the weekend would likely end up warmer with highs in the 70s, rather than the 60s. This forecast follows closer to that trend, but acknowledges that we could end up with a boundary of airmasses within the CWA This is one more item to monitor over the coming days.
AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Short Term...Ceilings are expected to stay MVFR/IFR through this evening, before continuing to lower and trending most terminals toward IFR/LIFR again tonight. Patchy fog may develop again tonight as well. Conditions look to improve to VFR across most of the area Monday. The only exception would be along the coast where the marine layer may get trapped and keep ceilings lower. Winds remain light through the period.
Long Term...Mainly VFR conditions are expected at most terminals Tuesday through Thursday. Some coastal fog is possible at times at RKD Wednesday and Thursday. Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms bring brief restrictions Tuesday through Thursday across northern terminals, with a lesser chance of showers and storms elsewhere. VFR conditions likely return by next weekend.
MARINE
Short Term...SCA seas are expected to gradually subside overnight, and end up below thresholds for Monday. SCA conditions are not expected through Monday night. Onshore winds will be gusting around 10-15 kts Monday.
Long Term...High pressure builds along the Eastern Seaboard this week, bringing increasing south to southwesterly flow.
Areas of dense marine fog are possible by midweek. Some SCA conditions are possible by Thursday with increasing southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching cold front. High pressure then builds across the waters going into the weekend.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ150-152-154.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH | 4 mi | 93 min | ENE 4.1 | 56°F | 30.06 | 51°F | ||
| SEIM1 | 5 mi | 48 min | 57°F | 30.08 | ||||
| IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH | 15 mi | 78 min | NE 7G | 52°F | 30.04 | 52°F | ||
| WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME | 21 mi | 78 min | NNE 4.1 | 55°F | 51°F | |||
| 44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf | 22 mi | 134 min | ENE 9.7G | 52°F | 53°F | 6 ft | 30.04 | |
| 44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) | 41 mi | 52 min | 53°F | 6 ft | ||||
| 44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen | 44 mi | 134 min | NE 14G | 52°F | 51°F | 6 ft | 30.04 | |
| 44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME | 46 mi | 38 min | NNE 3.9G | 50°F | 51°F | 30.06 | 48°F | |
| CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME | 48 mi | 48 min | E 2.9G | 53°F | 30.04 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KPSM PORTSMOUTH INTL AT PEASE,NH | 3 sm | 23 min | NE 06 | 10 sm | Overcast | 57°F | 50°F | 77% | 30.06 | |
| KDAW SKYHAVEN,NH | 12 sm | 27 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | 57°F | 52°F | 82% | 30.06 | |
| KSFM SANFORD SEACOAST RGNL,ME | 20 sm | 22 min | ENE 03 | 10 sm | Overcast | 55°F | 52°F | 88% | 30.07 |
Tide / Current for Dover Point, Piscataqua River, New Hampshire
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Dover Point
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Sun -- 03:17 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 04:30 AM EDT 1.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:15 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 10:45 AM EDT 5.85 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:18 PM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 04:43 PM EDT 1.07 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:04 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 11:04 PM EDT 6.27 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:17 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 04:30 AM EDT 1.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:15 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 10:45 AM EDT 5.85 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:18 PM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 04:43 PM EDT 1.07 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:04 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 11:04 PM EDT 6.27 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Dover Point, Piscataqua River, New Hampshire, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 5.2 |
| 1 am |
| 4 |
| 2 am |
| 2.7 |
| 3 am |
| 1.7 |
| 4 am |
| 1.1 |
| 5 am |
| 1.1 |
| 6 am |
| 1.7 |
| 7 am |
| 2.8 |
| 8 am |
| 4 |
| 9 am |
| 5 |
| 10 am |
| 5.7 |
| 11 am |
| 5.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 5.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 4.3 |
| 2 pm |
| 3.1 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 8 pm |
| 3.9 |
| 9 pm |
| 5.1 |
| 10 pm |
| 5.9 |
| 11 pm |
| 6.3 |
Portsmouth Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:18 AM EDT -1.45 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 03:17 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 05:08 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:15 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 06:46 AM EDT 0.64 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 10:34 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 01:22 PM EDT -1.51 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:18 PM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 05:15 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:12 PM EDT 0.94 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 08:04 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 11:09 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:18 AM EDT -1.45 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 03:17 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 05:08 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:15 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 06:46 AM EDT 0.64 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 10:34 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 01:22 PM EDT -1.51 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:18 PM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 05:15 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:12 PM EDT 0.94 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 08:04 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 11:09 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Portsmouth Harbor Entrance, New Hampshire Current, knots
| 12 am |
| -1.2 |
| 1 am |
| -1.4 |
| 2 am |
| -1.4 |
| 3 am |
| -1.3 |
| 4 am |
| -0.9 |
| 5 am |
| -0.1 |
| 6 am |
| 0.5 |
| 7 am |
| 0.6 |
| 8 am |
| 0.5 |
| 9 am |
| 0.5 |
| 10 am |
| 0.3 |
| 11 am |
| -0.3 |
| 12 pm |
| -1.1 |
| 1 pm |
| -1.5 |
| 2 pm |
| -1.5 |
| 3 pm |
| -1.3 |
| 4 pm |
| -1 |
| 5 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.1 |
Portland, ME,
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