Tuesday, December7, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Croswell, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:45AMSunset 4:56PM Tuesday December 7, 2021 8:08 PM EST (01:08 UTC) Moonrise 11:29AMMoonset 8:36PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ443 Port Sanilac To Port Huron Mi- 350 Pm Est Tue Dec 7 2021
Tonight..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly cloudy. A chance of light snow showers after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of light snow showers in the morning, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less building to 2 to 4 feet early in the afternoon. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ443 Expires:202112080415;;071798 FZUS53 KDTX 072050 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 350 PM EST Tue Dec 7 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ443-080415-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Croswell, MI
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location: 43.13, -82.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 072318 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 618 PM EST Tue Dec 7 2021

AVIATION.

Weak lift with an upper-level disturbance will aid in the production of light snow centered during the early morning hours Wednesday. The forcing will be slightly better north of the I-94 terminals. Will maintain prevailing light snow PTK north with PROB30 YIP/DTW/DET. Any snow observed is expected to progress east to northeast out of the region after ~12Z.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

* Low in ceilings at or below 5000 ft on Wednesday.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 350 PM EST Tue Dec 7 2021

DISCUSSION .

Broad upper level confluence aloft has led to 1023mb surface ridging extending northward out of the Ohio River Valley. A cold day across Southeast Michigan today with afternoon temperatures running in the low to mid 20s areawide. The values are roughly 15 degrees below seasonal averages.

Entrance region to upper level jet will remain progressive sliding into the central and eastern Great Lakes by 06Z tonight. A quick action in pseudo-zonal flow will cause a potential vorticity trough to pivot through Southeast Michigan between 06-18Z. Absolute cyclonic vorticity within the trough is very disorganized which brings bulk of synoptic scale forcing in the initial geopotential height falls 06-12Z tonight. Really kind of tricky on where to settle with the PoPs late tonight. The overarching problem is the forecasted UVVs/omega is very weak tonight. Qualitatively, the best of the system relative isentropic ascent appears to be early this evening between 00-06Z, which will be necessary to moisten/saturate the column. Soundings look adequate for snow generation with saturation wrt ice through the DGZ but again limited omega. While the operational ECMWF is showing a widespread couple hundredths of liquid equivalent, a tendency metric from time lagged models including HRRR/RAP runs has shown a strong decreasing trends for PoPs overnight. For a more consistent forecast with neighbors and given the consensus of the hires solutions, did lower PoPs into the chance category between 6-12Z. The high confidence portion of this event is that snow amounts will be limited to a couple of tenths or a dusting. The issue is that with temperatures in the low 20s that any moisture on roadways may result in icy conditions for the Wednesday morning commute.

Weak disturbance will track into Ontario/Quebec Wednesday before ridging extends back across all of Southeast Michigan Wednesday night. Strong differential height rises will lead to warming and temperatures rising into the middle to upper 30s Thursday. Southern stream energy is forecasted to cross over tracking through Southeast Michigan Thursday night. Really no question on ptype given the sounding with a cold profile and elevated frontal surface through the DGZ. Strong anticyclonic curvature to trajectories will limit ascent over Southeast Michigan but models are consistent with widespread light snow north of I 69.

Models showing great continuity with dynamic winter storm system next weekend. Way too early to discuss much on details, but high confidence exists for this far out that Southeast Michigan will remain within the warm sector of the this system. An extreme low level jet setup with +50 knots at 850mb may bring some elevated thunder. Windy conditions to follow Saturday and Saturday night.

MARINE .

High pressure has spread across the area resulting in west-southwest winds with gusts holding below 20 knots. This has allowed the high waves from last night to continue to subside through the day. A pair of weak systems will merge over the straits tonight and consolidate into a single low which will ridge over the ridge into Ontario Wednesday morning. This will result in a several hour period of light snow tonight after midnight. Wind speeds will change little from this system but directions will veer to the northwest on Wednesday behind a trough axis. A stronger upper level trough will track across the Plains Wednesday and approach the Great Lakes Thursday. This will bring increasing winds out of the southeast.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . DG DISCUSSION . CB MARINE . DRK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 14 mi183 min 23°F 1020.8 hPa
PSCM4 20 mi69 min WSW 2.9G5.1 20°F 1039.6 hPa (-0.4)
AGCM4 35 mi183 min 23°F 44°F1021.9 hPa
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 48 mi69 min WSW 4.1G6 23°F 1022.4 hPa (-1.0)

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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This dayW17
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G30
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G23
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G18

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Clair County International Airport, MI15 mi74 minSW 310.00 miFair23°F10°F58%1021.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPHN

Wind History from PHN (wind in knots)
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This dayW11
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W7W6W8W5W6--W60W4W3W4W7W4W3W4W3W5NW7W3000
1 day agoSE7S9
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S7S7S10SW4SW40S40W5W5W7
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2 days agoW3NW4NW3NW3NW400000000E4E6SE6SE11
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SE14
G23
SE10
G18
SE9

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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