Sunrise 6:13 AM   Sunset 8:39 PM Moonrise 4:44 AM   Moonset 7:33 PM

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LHZ443 Port Sanilac To Port Huron Mi- 1006 Pm Edt Tue May 7 2024
Rest of tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the southwest early in the morning. Mostly cloudy this evening becoming partly cloudy. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms this evening. Waves 2 feet or less. Wednesday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Partly cloudy in the morning then clearing. Waves 2 feet or less. Wednesday night - North winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Partly cloudy in the evening, then mostly cloudy with a chance of showers after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight. Thursday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots early in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.

LHZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 080006 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 806 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- A Tornado Watch is in effect for Lenawee, Monroe, and Washtenaw Counties until 11 PM this evening.

- Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms have moved in this evening, mainly along/south of M-59.

- Damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes are possible.

- Warm and breezy conditions are expected Wednesday, followed by cooler conditions with a chance of rain Thursday.

AVIATION

Ceilings have struggled to lower this evening as storms arrive from the southwest. These clusters of storms have shown signs of weakening as the available instability transitions from surface based to elevated. This presents increased risk for large hail, in addition to standard aviation convective hazards. Areas from PTK south are at greatest risk for lightning strikes given the vicinity of the surface warm front while storms near FNT/MBS ride the elevated frontal boundary. Most of the storms should depart or dissipate by 11 PM this evening. Clouds try to scour out after midnight offering potential for a bit of MVFR fog as the humid airmass cools. Sunny and breezy conditions in store Wednesday afternoon with afternoon gusts in excess of 25 knots.

For DTW/D21 Convection...

Multicell thunderstorms are approaching the terminals this evening with potential for some strong to severe storms capable of 40+ mph gusts and large hail. A tornado cannot completely be ruled out, yet.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for thunderstorms until 03Z this evening.

* Low for ceiling at or below 5000 feet this evening.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 346 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

DISCUSSION...

Previous forecast reasoning offered by Area Forecast Discussions issued earlier today remains valid. Initial arc of elevated shower activity forced by lead system relative isentropic ascent and 850- 600mb thetae advection is now lifting northward through Southeast Michigan. After this initial evaporative cooling response, will be monitoring for the surface temperature and dewpoint recovery to gauge for the potential of surface based, severe thunderstorms between 6-11 pm local time. As forecasted, dewpoints have been slow to rise and will have to overcome a due easterly trajectory off of Lake Erie. A strong convergence bullseye on the nose of a deep kinematic field and upper level diffluence is forecasted to lift/pivot directly into portions of south central and southeast Michigan this evening. Quality of large scale forcing is expected to result in numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms after. 22Z The main threat this evening will be a potential for a tornado (mainly for areas south of I 94) conditional to surface instability.
The secondary threat with thunderstorm activity (all areas) this evening will be large hail. Modest midlevel lapse rates of 6-6.5C/km should limit hail diameter potential, but any non-hydrostatic force provided by mesocyclones could cause for hail diameters to exceed 1 inch. Again, the time period for potential severe weather is between 6-11 pm.

The zonal gradient orientation in the wake of the upper level trough release will then set the stage for a relatively breezy day on Wednesday. West winds of 20 to 30 mph. Little to no northward advection will yield a sneaky warm day Wednesday with a dry, well mixed boundary layer. No humidity to speak of but sunny conditions and temperatures reaching the middle 70s to low 80s.

A very complex upper level height configuration is then expected to develop for the Thursday and Friday time frame. An atypical elongated trough axis is expected to reside in a largely west to east fashion from the Central Plains to the Central Great Lakes. Not a whole lot of confidence to be garnered from the setup as various shortwaves digging southward from central Canada will have the opportunity to disrupt the troughing. As it stands, Southeast Michigan looks to be in a fairly close proximity to deeper deformation forcing. Coupled jet forcing is also expected to eject trough providing for an ageostrophic response and increased frontogenesis. PoPs for Thursday are in the numerous to likely category for much of the area and is warranted.

Various, lobes of modest planetary/potential vorticity are forecasted to dig through Southeast Michigan for this upcoming weekend. Given the trajectory, the predictability to the timing of the shortwaves may prove difficult, but current trends suggest Saturday is the most likely of time periods for precipitation.
Temperatures will be strongly dependent on cloud cover, with current forecast suggesting temperatures of approximately 5 degrees below normal.

MARINE...

Warm front tied to Midwestern low pressure continues to lift into the central Great Lakes this afternoon supporting widespread showers as well as scattered thunderstorms into this evening. A few strong to severe storms are possible for areas south of Port Huron with all hazards on the table. System's cold/occluded front crosses the region overnight setting up modest (~15-20kt) westerly flow for Wednesday. Secondary low development over the Ohio Valley Wednesday night results in a turn to northeasterly flow locally. Marginally cooler airmass is drawn south, combined with the still tightened gradient, is expected to allow for peak gusts 20-25kts over the central portion of Lake Huron with near 30kts possible over Saginaw Bay (lesser gusts over the remainder of the region). Additional showers are also likely daytime Thursday before the low vacates.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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