Sunrise 5:50 AM   Sunset 8:12 PM Moonrise 3:30 AM   Moonset 4:25 PM

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LOZ044 Expires:202405050315;;624841 Fzus51 Kbuf 042005 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 405 pm edt Sat may 4 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-050315- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 405 pm edt Sat may 4 2024
Tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers late this evening. Showers likely after midnight, then periods of rain late. Waves 2 feet or less. Sunday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Periods of rain. Waves 2 feet or less. Sunday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. Monday - West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. Partly to mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Monday night - West winds less than 10 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Showers likely Tuesday night. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Wednesday night. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 48 degrees.

LOZ005
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FXUS61 KBGM 050803 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 403 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

SYNOPSIS
Showers across the region will end late today or this evening.
On Monday high pressure builds in with dry weather that lasts into Tuesday. Low pressure systems will bring additional showers from Wednesday through the end of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
3 am update...

Rain has moved into the entire area now and will continue into the afternoon as a slow moving warm front moves east. The front will push through this afternoon. Tonight rain showers will be lighter as a dying front moves through with limited moisture.
Monday there could be a few lingering light showers from the southern tier into NEPA. Rainfall totals will be around half an inch for most but along I90 in Oneida County amounts could be over an inch. In Oneida a little better low level convergence and lift. Still nothing to worry about in respect to flooding.

Highs today in the 50s for most but some clearing may get into the central southern tier and Finger Lakes late afternoon so highs there around 60. Tonight lows from the upper 40s to mid 50s. Monday more sunshine so highs from the upper 60s to the mid 70s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
4 AM Update...

High pressure building in Monday night will lead to clearing skies with light northerly winds. This will set us up for a relatively chilly night, with lows dipping into the lower-40s across portions of CNY. Noticed the old MET MOS guidance is going for 37 at ITH, and the NBM 5th Percentile also indicates upper-30s across a wider area. This is likely a little on the low side, though sheltered valleys could drop just below 40.

Southerly flow will bring a quick rebound in temperatures on Tuesday, which is shaping up to be a fine day across the whole area, as highs reach well into the 70s with light winds and Mostly Sunny skies. Clouds will begin to increase Tuesday evening as weak low pressure heads across the Lower Great Lakes.
A warm front ahead of this system will bring some rain showers to the area Tuesday night.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
4 AM Update...

Showers will lift north towards the Thruway along with the warm front early Wednesday, but with weak low pressure drifting ESE across NY state, the cold front won't be far behind, spreading showers and a few embedded thunderstorms across the area later Wednesday morning into early afternoon. Lowered temperatures a few degrees north of the Twin Tiers where precip will be more prevalent. Otherwise, we still look to hold onto 70s Wednesday across the region.

The Wednesday system will usher in a rather unsettled period with temperatures cooling through the weekend. The next system looks to bring widespread rain showers to the area Thursday as low pressure slowly moves across the Ohio Valley, and weak low pressure develops off the Delmarva Peninsula. Low pressure looks to stall out across the lower Great Lakes heading into the weekend, with possible further coastal low development helping to keep precip slung back across the area. Rain showers look to continue into the weekend, and highs on Saturday could well be stuck in the 50s.

AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
140 AM Update...

Rain showers have moved north to all of the sites now. SYR/RME are still VFR but should fall to MVFR cigs by 08z, then to fuel alternate by 10z. RME will fall to IFR cig and MVFR vsby around 14z. SYR falls to IFR cig around 01z as the rain ends.

The other sites are all MVFR fuel alternate. IFR cigs by 08z at BGM/AVP and 09z at ELM and 13z at ITH. IFR continues through this evening despite rain ending around 00z.

Southeast winds mostly at 5 to 10 kts early this morning except ITH/BGM 10 gust 20. During the day most sites 10 gust 20 kts except AVP/ELM at 5 to 10 kts still.

Outlook...

Overnight tonight...Widespread IFR to even LIFR restrictions continue areawide.

Monday...Lingering Ceiling restrictions in the morning, then becoming VFR.

Monday Night and Tuesday...Mainly VFR expected.

Tuesday night through Thursday... Periods of showers with some restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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