Saturday, October16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
North Syracuse, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 6:21PM Saturday October 16, 2021 4:36 AM EDT (08:36 UTC) Moonrise 4:05PMMoonset 1:49AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:202110160330;;737793 Fzus51 Kbuf 152037 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 437 Pm Edt Fri Oct 15 2021 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-160330- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 437 Pm Edt Fri Oct 15 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from Saturday afternoon through Tuesday morning...
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Some Thunderstorms may produce strong winds and large hail this evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Saturday night..West winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of waterspouts. Lake effect showers with some rumbles of Thunder possible. Waves 5 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Sunday..West winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of waterspouts. Lake effect showers with some rumbles of Thunder possible. Waves 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of waterspouts. Lake effect showers with some rumbles of Thunder possible. Waves 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Showers likely . Waves 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 64 degrees, and the central lake ontario buoy water temperature is 65 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Syracuse, NY
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location: 43.14, -76.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 160826 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 426 AM EDT Sat Oct 16 2021

SYNOPSIS. A strong cold front approaches the area today, bringing showers and thunderstorms this morning west of Binghamton and this afternoon further east. A few storms could become strong to severe, with gusty winds being the main threat. Much cooler air will then be in place tonight through Monday, with scattered lake effect rain showers across Central NY and mainly dry, but breezy weather for Northeast PA. High pressure brings pleasant and seasonable weather areawide on Tuesday and Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/.

340 AM Update

Active weather expected today as a strong cold front presses through from west to east. SPC has upgraded much of our CWA to a slight risk of severe thunderstorms; with the greatest threat being isolated damaging winds along a developing squall line. Although unlikely there is also an outside chance for a brief tornado to develop as well, considering the high levels of low level shear and helicity forecast.

Current 6.95um GOES-East WV loop shows a narrow but deep plume of enhanced moisture streaming from the central Gulf Coast up the Appalachians and into NY/PA. Cyclogenesis is ongoing across northern Indiana/Ohio and southern Michigan, with hints of a developing baroclinic leaf across lower Michigan. The overall synoptic set up for today is: A large upper level trough is moving into the Ohio Valley at this time, with a 80-90 kt 500mb jet progged to reach Central NY/ NE PA by early afternoon. Our CWA will be in the left exit region of this jet streak, with strong upper level divergence forecast. This will allow for an area of heavy rain and embedded line of thunderstorms to develop along the surface cold front.

There will be some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Central Southern Tier and Finger Lakes before daybreak, as the first wave moves through. Atmospheric parameters are already becoming more favorable/primed for stronger to isolated severe storms. Bulk effective layer shear is increasing to between 40-50kts during the predawn hours and there is upwards of 500 J/Kg of MLCAPE in place . some of which is surface based. There is some minor surface based CIN present early this morning, but lifted indices are already around -3 so if any of these early morning storms can tap into the better, slightly elevated instability, there could already be some isolated stronger storms.

The main threat window will be along or just ahead of the primary cold front. Based on latest consensus of CAMs, this front should move into our western zones between 8-11 AM . reaching I-81 from Syracuse to Binghamton between 11AM to 2 PM and finally the Wyoming Valley, Catskills & Poconos between 1 to 5 PM this afternoon. Guidance indicates potentially between 300-800 J/Kg of SBCAPE, deep layer shear 50-65 kts and strong low level shear (0-1km) of 25-30 kts. There is also forecast to be 200-300 M2/S2 of 0-1km storm relative helicity present . combined with ample low level moisture (Td sfc 64-68F) and low LCL (< 350m) the environment is at least marginally favorable for storms to rotate . and an isolate tornado would be possible . potentially the QLCS embedded type. In fact, latest HREF members are all showing a QLCS type squall line developing and pushing east across our region today. DCAPE is only progged to be around 200 J/Kg or less out ahead of the line, so the gusty to isolated damaging winds would be more dynamically forced, as a strong low level jet of 50 kts at 850mb becomes involved.

Once the above mentioned line of storms races east of our area by around 5 PM, we will be left with just a post frontal area of moderate rain for several more hours this evening. Then, by late evening things should dry out for most locations . except some lake effect rain showers begin moving across the northern and far western portion of the forecast area. These lake effect rain showers will continue overnight, on mainly a due westerly flow . therefore the highest PoPs for rain will be along and north the the NY Thruway (Syracuse to Utica) and out in the hills of western Steuben (off lake Erie here). For the remainder of the CWA, expect partly cloudy, breezy and cooler weather tonight with just an isolated shower possible. Overnight lows dip down into the 40s.

For Sunday, the area remains under the influence of a broad, rather higher amplitude upper level trough. The lake effect rain showers continue up north as 850mb temps fall to around 0C. By late morning and into the afternoon a shortwave disturbance is forecast to drop south through the area. This will initially cause the lake effect bands to fluctuate and become disrupted for a time. It will also initiate scattered shower development further south, into the Twin Tiers and much of NE PA in the afternoon. Late in the day the lake effect rain bands may become better organized on a 290-310 degree flow. Otherwise, outside of the pop up showers Sunday will feature partly sunny skies, breezy west winds 15-25 mph and cool highs in the 50s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. 318 AM Update . Models and ensembles are in good agreement through this period, with a high amplitude trough persisting over Quebec and the northeastern US. Persistent low-level WNW to NW flow off the Great Lakes and cyclonic flow aloft with embedded vort maxes will lead to periods of lake effect rain showers with a slight diurnal trend. Some thunderstorms will be possible even into Sunday night over parts of the Mohawk Valley, downwind of Lake Ontario.

Colder air will filter into the area by Monday, carried on blustery northwest winds. 850 mb temps will drop below 0C over most of the CWA on Monday. This will reduce lapse rates a bit, reducing the risk of thunder. Precip types will stay all rain, even in the higher terrain, as Wet Bulb Zero heights will only drop to around 4000-4500 feet MSL over the Catskills. Highs will be in the 50s over most of the lower elevations (40s in higher elevations above 2500 feet or so). This is only about 5-8 degrees below normal, well within "seasonal" range considering it's a highly variable time of year.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. 318 AM Update . The persistent trough will shift east of the area Tuesday night, with winds aloft backing to the WNW ahead of an upper level ridge shifting east across the Great Lakes. While the ridge will weaken as it approaches, temperatures will still warm back up into the 60s for most areas.

Uncertainty increases by Friday as a series of shortwave troughs look to mve across the area, with a surface low moving across the Great Lakes. Precip chances will increase as early as Thursday as a weak warm front moves north of the area, but the main focus for precip looks to stay north of the Mohawk Valley until a cold front approaches Thursday night. The more important question lingers just beyond the forecast period, as a deeper cold air outbreak may follow this front in time for the weekend.

AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm may clip ELM and SYR prior to 12z this morning. Otherwise, mainly VFR for the rest of tonight. Then, MVFR CIGS begin to develop across much of the area between 12-15z this morning, as clouds lower and thicken out ahead of an approaching cold front.

Widespread showers move west to east across the region today, mainly between about 14-22z . Ceilings and visibilities should lower to MVFR fuel alternate levels as the rain and embedded thunderstorms move through with some IFR ceilings possible at a few TAF sites. Did add in a tempo group for either +SHRA or TSRA at all TAF sites as the a squall line pushes through along the frontal boundary. Current timing for squall line is mainly 14-17z SYR, ELM, ITH . 16-19z BGM and RME . and 17-20z AVP. Could see brief LIFR restrictions in thunderstorms, with heavy rain, gusty and erratic winds. Southerly winds 8-15 kts this morning shift quickly to westerly behind the cold front at 10-20kts.

After the widespread rain moves out from west to east (between 21-00z) expect just an isolated shower, except lingering scattered showers for RME and SYR as it transitions to lake effect rain showers tonight. Conditions should improve to lower end VFR or occasional MVFR by late evening. Best chance to see lingering MVFR CIGs is at SYR and RME.

Outlook .

Late tonight through Sunday night . Chance of showers, mainly for the NY terminals; intermittent restrictions possible.

Monday . Chance of showers, mainly RME and SYR, and associated restrictions. Otherwise, mainly VFR.

Tuesday through Wednesday . Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . MJM NEAR TERM . MJM SHORT TERM . MPH LONG TERM . MPH AVIATION . MJM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 31 mi49 min SSE 8G9.9 69°F 1003.2 hPa65°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 79 mi37 min SSW 7G11 71°F 1003.7 hPa (-1.7)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 80 mi49 min 69°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY1 mi43 minS 610.00 miOvercast73°F68°F84%1003.7 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY21 mi43 minESE 3 miOvercast68°F66°F93%1003.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSYR

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE30E3E4E3000SW5W6W5NE4NE3N3E4E5E5E6SE5E60S6S4S6
1 day ago0W4W400W7W6000N30W3E3E40E4E5SE4SE3E5E3E3E3
2 days agoE3E3E4E3E3E3NE300N40N4NW6NW5N3000S3000W4SW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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