Sunrise 6:35 AM   Sunset 8:48 PM Moonrise 2:34 AM   Moonset 11:58 AM

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LMZ872 Expires:202405020300;;447945 Fzus63 Kmkx 011930 Glflm
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 230 pm cdt Wed may 1 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
Synopsis -
gusty southwest to west winds will gradually diminish this evening, as high pressure of 30.6 inches moves into and across the lake. Winds will then turn easterly and increase on Thursday, as low pressure of 29.7 inches lifts from kansas into southwestern wisconsin. That low will weaken and lift north into canada on Friday, with high pressure briefly building into the region.
another area of low pressure, averaging 29.8 inches, will lift into the region on Saturday. A brief period of gusty north winds is expected Sunday morning as the low moves east and high pressure of 30.2 inches builds in from the west.
lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-020300- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 230 pm cdt Wed may 1 2024
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south - .
Tonight - Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt veering to northeast. Slight chance of rain showers overnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 2 ft. Thursday - East winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Chance of rain showers in the morning, then chance of rain showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft building to 2 to 4 ft. Thursday night - Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt becoming south 10 to 15 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Friday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt veering to north. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Friday night - North winds 10 to 15 kt diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Saturday - North winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Saturday night - North winds 10 to 15 kt. Chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Sunday - North winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Monday - East winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southeast 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 ft.

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KGRR 012350 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 750 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Risk for thunderstorms later Thursday into Thursday night

- Warm with Periods of showers and storms ahead

DISCUSSION
Issued at 259 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

- Risk for thunderstorms later Thursday into Thursday night

A stronger mid level vort max pivots northeastward from SD through MN during this timeframe. An associated low level jet lifts up through WI an into western Lower MI. Elevated instability advects in, especially Thursday night with 925 mb/850 mb LI's lowering down to -2 deg C. Thus an increasing risk for thunderstorms will exist during this period. With the low level jet around, any stronger storm may result in stronger gusts. Deep layer shear is shown to be quite strong well west of the CWA then, but if a complex and track in from the west, we could see an organized gust front, mainly Thursday night. We will expand the likely POPs to include much of the CWA for Thursday night.

- Warm with Periods of showers and storms ahead

A slow moving upper level low moving through the upper Midwest and along the Canadian border will dominate the weather pattern through the weekend into next week. No major changes to forecast ahead. Mid to long range models continue to show a shortwave swinging around that large upper level low that will entrench itself over the Upper Midwest Friday.

That shortwave will strengthen a frontal system that will bring a warm and cold front through the region Friday. There is strong moisture through the mid levels that correspond with a mid level shortwave, a decent mid level gradient and dry air behind the front. This should bring for substantial showers and storms Friday afternoon and evening. PWATs still look to be around 1.25 and dewpoints in the 60s. While upper level dynamics look to be beneficial, looking at soundings they are fairly moist so periods of showers look to be the trend. The cold front treks eastward Friday afternoon with showers and storms.

As the upper level low moves northeastwards a tertiary trough swings through late Saturday which could bring some light scattered showers into Sunday m morning.

The next best chance for showers and storms will be early next week as another large upper level low moves similarly as Friday's system and drags another trough with warm moist air into the Great Lakes.

Max Temperatures through this timeframe will be in the 70s with highest temperatures nearing 80 next week. Cooler air will reside along the lakeshore.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 750 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

High likelihood of VFR tonight and much of the day Thursday.
Clouds above 10,000 feet will be streaming in tonight and during the morning, and by afternoon (after 16 Z), clouds around 6,000 feet should stream in, sometimes creating a ceiling. Those clouds at 6,000 feet may be unstable and convect with weak to moderate updrafts, possibly up to 15,000 feet, to produce scattered showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Any passing showers during the afternoon-evening could produce downdrafts, given a fairly dry and well-mixed lower atmosphere, and temporarily disrupt ground-level wind speed/direction.



MARINE
Issued at 259 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

The winds and waves have largely fallen to under small craft advisory so we cancelled the headline early. The winds will increase again Thursday night as another low level jet moves in.
Mixing heights and the winds at those levels suggest we will fall just short of small craft conditions.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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