Sunrise 5:28 AM   Sunset 7:50 PM Moonrise 4:07 AM   Moonset 5:02 PM

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ANZ154 Coastal Waters From Cape Elizabeth, Me To Merrimack River, Ma Out 25 Nm- 314 Am Edt Sun May 5 2024
Today - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 3 seconds and E 2 ft at 6 seconds. Patchy fog early this morning. Patchy fog late. A chance of rain early this afternoon. Rain likely late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early this morning, then 1 to 3 nm late. Tonight - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 4 seconds and E 2 ft at 7 seconds. Rain. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 10 seconds and S 2 ft at 5 seconds. A chance of rain in the morning. Areas of fog in the morning, then patchy fog in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Mon night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 10 seconds. Tue - NW winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 10 seconds.Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 11 seconds. Wed - E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely. Wed night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the evening. Thu - NE winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon.Thu night - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely.

ANZ100 314 Am Edt Sun May 5 2024
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm high pressure over maritime canada and low pressure over the great lakes combine to continue southeast flow across the gulf of maine today rain, low clouds, and some fog develop through this afternoon and evening then depart Monday morning. A cold front crosses the waters later Monday bringing fresh southwesterly to westerly flow and clearing conditions. Low pressure remains nearby through the week with a couple opportunities for more organized waves to traverse the waters, leading to periods of rainy weather and potentially active seas.

FXUS61 KGYX 050757 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 357 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

SYNOPSIS
Today will feature increasing clouds followed by periods of light rain through tonight as a frontal system crosses New England. Conditions remain damp until a cold front crosses on Monday, bringing warmer and drier weather for the remainder of Monday and Tuesday. Tuesday will be especially nice with sunshine and temperatures warming into the 60s and 70s. Rainy weather returns for the middle and end of the week.

NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
Humid onshore flow continues today with thickening overcast as rounds of rain enter the area from the west. The feature responsible for the incoming rain is a mid-level shortwave and an accompanying moisture axis, tracking toward the ENE on the leading side of a broader upper level trough shifting across Canada. Before rain arrives, boundary layer mixing is actually expected to be pretty good in spite of the onshore flow. This should keep ceilings a little higher, produce a steady southeasterly breeze, and allow temperatures to warm into the 50s... closer to 50 at the immediate coast.

Western New Hampshire probably won't be so lucky however with rain moving in through the morning hours... ultimately keeping temperatures mostly in the 40s to near 50. Periods of rain ultimately overtake the remainder of the forecast area through the afternoon and evening. Overall a dreary afternoon and evening with rain, low ceilings, and temperatures in the 40s.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Steady rainfall associated with the wave comes to an end from west to east tonight, between about 10 PM and 5 AM. Rainfall totals have trended a little upwards with latest model runs, with 0.3-0.6 amounts likely in most places. Lower amounts are expected near the Midcoast toward the Kennebec Valley whereas amounts on the higher end of that envelope are most likely in SW New Hampshire, and in the higher terrain of New Hampshire. Risk for impacts remains low.

There will be a lag between rainfall ending and the system's cold front crossing, which won't be until the daytime on Monday.
Thus low-level moisture will remain entrenched even as dry advection starts aloft, and thus low ceilings and a fair amount of fog development can be expected tonight.

Drier westerly flow slowly filtering down from the upper levels should allow ceilings to lift fairly quickly over the interior after sunrise Monday. Temperatures thus warm quickly with better mixing and clearing skies, into the 60s and 70s. The marine influence however will likely cause low clouds to cling to the coast into the Maine Capitol district for a few hours longer, until the cold front crosses in the early afternoon... with highs in the low- to mid-60s.

Finally, lingering low- and mid-level moisture combined with strong surface heating may spark a few convective showers as the cold front crosses Monday afternoon. With weak forcing though, I'm not expecting much to come of it except for perhaps a brief downpour.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
The 500 Mb pattern across the N Hemisphere remains very blocky, with mostly moderate amplification, through much of next week but more amplified troughing to our W. This will act as a wave generator, and allow weak waves to move across N England over several days mid to late week, with cooler onshore flow likely again, at least part of the time.

Monday and Tuesday should be decent, although, could see some lingering SHRA early Monday, which may linger through midday in the mtns. Morning clouds give way to at least partly sunny skies in the afternoon as well. Overall the day should show gradual improvement. 850 mb temps approaching +10C should allow for for temps to rise into the 70s across much of the area, with mainly SW winds. Models suggesting more of a turn to the S along the SW ME which will not be a full sea breeze there, at least until late in the day, and highs on the coast should be mostly in the mid to upper 60s, which will be similar to the mtns. Mon night looks mainly clear and cool, with lows mostly in the 40s, but might only fall into the low 50s in srn NH. Tuesday looks slightly warmer than Monday, and with more sun as well, as sfc high crosses the region. Highs will once again be in the 70s most place, but could reach into the upper 70s in srn NH. The coast and mtns once again top out in the mid to upper 60s.
Tuesday night we start to cloud up late with lows in the 40s once again.

Things go downhill Wed as we get into a flatter pattern with a weak ridge that gets hit by waves from 500 mb closed low meandering over the west and central US. This will keep sfc high to the N with a series of lows riding to the S of it, and allow for mostly onshore flow and rounds of showers /not unlike what we saw earlier this week/. While it is not likely to rain every period in the extended, it also not likely to clear that much either in between the bouts of showers, and highs are likely to remain below normal, mainly in the 50s most days, occnly reaching into the low to mid 60s in some spots. This pattern looks like it will hold into Saturday, bu any stronger wave that kick the closed low more quickly to the E, could kick this pattern out of the area, so confidence is low late in the forecast.

AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Short Term...Widespread MVFR to IFR CIGs this morning eventually give way to IFR/LIFR tonight as RA overtakes the region. Winds meanwhile are forecast to remain AOB 10 kts out of SE today, turning S tonight. RA ends, though restrictions are likely maintained in the form of BR/FG tonight. Trending to VFR Monday morning, closer to mid-day for RKD with SW/W winds.

Long Term...Mainly VFR expected Monday into Tuesday night. By Wed and Thu we will be in a familiar pattern with showers and mainly onshore flow, so flight restrictions a good bet during the period.

MARINE
Short Term...SE winds increase today with rain and some fog developing through the afternoon and evening. Periods of rain continue overnight with SE winds turning S, peaking around 20 kts Mon morning as rain exits east through the waters. Light SW winds and 3 ft seas expected for Mon.

Long Term...Winds/seas stay below SCA levels through the period although SE winds will start to pick up a bit on Wed/Thu.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

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York Harbor
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Sun -- 03:17 AM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:20 AM EDT     9.48 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:39 PM EDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:01 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:46 PM EDT     10.12 feet High Tide
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York Harbor, Maine, Tide feet

Portsmouth Harbor Entrance
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Sun -- 01:30 AM EDT     -1.98 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:18 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:20 AM EDT     1.25 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 10:56 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 01:51 PM EDT     -2.09 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:01 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:35 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 07:50 PM EDT     1.52 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 11:33 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Portsmouth Harbor Entrance, New Hampshire Current, knots

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