Sunrise 5:46 AM   Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 3:26 AM   Moonset 4:20 PM

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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 939 Am Edt Sun May 5 2024
Rest of today - South winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Periods of rain, then showers likely late. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Tonight - South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely. Patchy fog overnight. Waves 2 feet or less. Monday - West winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Areas of fog in the morning. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. Mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - Light and variable winds becoming east 5 to 10 knots. Showers likely Tuesday night. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day, then a chance of showers Wednesday night. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Showers likely. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KALY 052345 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 745 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

SYNOPSIS
With continued cool conditions, steady rain will taper to showers for this evening into tonight. Clouds will break for some sunshine on Monday with milder temperatures returning to the region. Warm and sunny weather is expected on Tuesday before the threat for showers returns Wednesday into the latter portion of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/

UPDATE
As of 0745 PM EDT, while steady rain has exited the region, scattered showers will continue to slide eastward through the remainder of the evening while also trending downward in coverage. Otherwise, only minor adjustments have been made to timing of exiting precipitation, with the forecast largely remaining on track; see previous discussion below...

.PREV DISCUSSION [0345 PM EDT]...A slow moving frontal boundary is located over Ontario and across the Great Lakes. Ahead of this storm system, decent isentropic lift thanks to a south- southwest low level jet of 30-40 kts is allowing for a steady area of light to moderate rainfall over much of the region. The steadiest and heaviest rain is in a band from the mid Hudson Valley northeast through the eastern Capital Region, Taconics and Berkshires and into southern VT. Through the the early evening hours, this band of steadiest rainfall will be slowly shifting eastward into New England.

As the steadiest rain starts to exit off to the east this evening, precip will start to become more showery in nature, thanks to the best isentropic lift shifting northeast of the area. Still, additional showers are expected for late this evening and into the overnight, as our area will be still downstream of the slow moving frontal boundary to the west, as the moist southerly low level flow, aided by the cyclonic flow aloft, will continue to allow for additional showers. In addition, some patchy fog may start to develop, especially for sheltered areas for the overnight hours. In total, some areas will have seen over an inch of rain in total (especially within the Capital Region, parts of the Mohawk Valley and southern Adirondacks), although no hydro impacts expected to recent dry weather and rainfall rates being manageable.

Temps have been steady all day in the mid 40s to low 50s. These temps will continue into the overnight, with not much variation expected due to the widespread cloud cover. Although winds have been gusty from the south through the day, they will gradually start to come down through the overnight hours.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
The surface front will finally be crossing the area from west to east during the day on Monday. A few additional spotty showers can't be ruled out with the front (mainly eastern and southern areas), but moisture will become limited, as the high PWAT air will have shifted off to the east. While all areas will start the day cloudy, increasing sun is expected by afternoon as the front crosses through and winds switch to the west. It may take until later in the day for the sun to finally break out for southeastern areas. Temps should rise fairly quickly once the sun breaks out, as warm temps should still allow for a mild afternoon, with highs in valley areas back into the low to mid 70s (60s for the high terrain).

Better clearing is expected for Monday night with quiet weather.
Lows will fall into the mid to upper 40s with the fairly clear skies and light winds thanks to nearby surface high pressure.

A warm and sunny day in expected on Tuesday thanks to high pressure. With plenty of sun expected and 850 hpa temps of +5 to +8 C, highs should reach into the 70s once again for many valley areas. While Tuesday evening will start off dry, clouds will be increasing and a threat for showers will arrive by the late night hours, as the next shortwave starts to approach from the Great Lakes.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Unsettled weather is expected through much of the long term period.

Area of low pressure will be tracking close to the area on Wednesday. Recent model runs have speed the timing of this feature up slightly, so the best chance of rain may be from Tuesday night into the first half of the day on Wednesday. Some instability may still be present (especially southern areas), so can't rule out some thunder, but still unclear if there will be a threat for stronger storms, especially considering the earlier timing of this system. Otherwise, it will be mostly cloudy and more humid for Wednesday with the showers and possible t-storms.
Temps still look to reach the 60s and 70s.

There should be a brief dry stretch behind this initial system, so much of Wed night looks dry into start of Thursday, but another system will be impacting the region for the late week.
Have gone with high chc to likely POPs for Thurs/Fri as another slow moving shortwave moves across the area with some additional showers. Instability looks lower than Wednesday, but a stray rumble can't be ruled out. Highs look mainly in the 60s with lows in the 40s for Thursday into Friday.

Over the weekend, there are some differences in the models regarding the next approaching storm trough. There could be a period of ridging allowing for some dry and quiet weather before another round of showers heads towards the area. The timing is still uncertain, so will keep the chance for showers for both Saturday and Sunday, although it's possible some dry weather could occur. Temps could be a little below normal with highs in the lower 60s, although it will depend on the exact coverage of clouds/sun.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Through 00Z Tuesday...Mixed MVFR/IFR conditions expected to continue through much of the overnight period as showers exit to the east while areas of fog/mist develop before sunrise Monday morning. While the coverage of rain showers has begun to lessen, MVFR or possibly IFR vsbys are still expected within heavier shower elements before showers fully depart into New England by 03-06Z Mon. MVFR/IFR cigs below 2-3 kft will persist through the overnight period, although cloud coverage trending toward bkn skies after 06-08Z may allow for areas of fog/mist to form, more likely at GFL/POU/PSF than at ALB where winds will remain slightly higher.

Vsbys return to VFR and cigs begin to trend upward after sunrise Monday, with scattered light rain showers again possible as a weak cold front crosses the region from northwest to southeast through the late morning and into the afternoon, with no impacts to flying conditions expected.

Southeast winds continue through the overnight period at 10 kt or less at all terminals. Some gusts at ALB may reach 15-20 kt before rain shower coverage diminishes by 02-04Z Sun. Elsewhere, speeds trend downward quickly, with very light or calm winds expected, although low-level wind shear may exceed 30 kt at 1500 ft at PSF through 03-04Z Sun. Winds turn out of the southwest and ultimately out of the west by 15-18Z Sun, at 5-10 kt at ALB/PSF and at less than 5 kt at GFL/POU.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Thursday Night: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

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