Thursday, September23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sylvan Beach, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 7:01PM Thursday September 23, 2021 1:29 PM EDT (17:29 UTC) Moonrise 7:27PMMoonset 8:23AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:202109230915;;037995 Fzus51 Kbuf 230540 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 140 Am Edt Thu Sep 23 2021 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-230915- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 140 Am Edt Thu Sep 23 2021
Overnight..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..South winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. Rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south. Showers likely in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. A chance of waterspouts in the afternoon. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south 5 to 15 knots. A chance of waterspouts in the evening. A chance of showers in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of waterspouts Saturday night. Showers likely Saturday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. A chance of waterspouts. A chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet, then subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Monday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 45 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sylvan Beach, NY
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location: 43.17, -75.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 231516 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1116 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

SYNOPSIS. Gusty southeast winds will precede a slow moving cold front that will move across the area today and tonight. The front will bring a band of moderate to heavy rain showers and embedded thunderstorms to much of the area, though the period of steady rain may only last 6 hours. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon over parts of the area, with damaging winds possible. Localized flooding may also occur. Quieter and drier weather will return for Friday and the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/.

1055 AM Update .

Latest water vapor loop shows a narrow, but deep southerly moisture plume across eastern PA and central NY. Regional radar loop shows band of moderate to heavy rainfall extending south to north also across eastern PA and Central NY at this time. The rain is tapering off a bit faster across our western zones, as the steady rain has already ended across Steuben county as of 11 AM. Update PoPs to account for the latest trends, but overall it was not too different from the previous forecast. So far the thunderstorm activity has remained south of our area, across the Delmarva and SE PA . however guidance appears to indicate some of these storms and associated instability will come further north, perhaps getting into areas south and east of Binghamton this afternoon and early evening. Any storms that do develop could produce locally gusty to isolated damaging winds . SPC continues the marginal severe risk. PWATs are 1.7 to 1.9 inches combined with strong 925-850mb moisture transport, rainfall has been rather efficient.

As for rainfall amounts, latest spotter reports indicated 2 to 2.5 inches has fallen since last night across portions of Steuben county, so overall the forecast for 1.5 to 3" storm total rainfall appears on track as this area of rain/t'storms translates slowly east through the day into the evening hours. Thus far, amounts have been just under the 3-6 hour flash-flood guidance and have only heard about some minor standing water and creeks rising, but within banks.

Will continue the flash-flood watch, as any stronger convection this afternoon could cause locally higher rates and amounts. May be able to end the flash- flood watch a bit early though, as the rain should move east of Steuben/Chemung/Bradford counties by 2-3 PM this afternoon . then east of the next flash-flood watch segment (I-81 corridor Binghamton to Wilkes-Barre) by about 8-9 PM. The rain should end across the western Catskills by 2-4 AM Friday morning.

445 AM Update . Water vapor imagery shows a closed upper low over northwestern Ohio this morning, vertically stacked with an attendant surface low. An occluded front extends east to a weaker surface low over western Lake Ontario, with a warm front extending across the Saint Lawrence Valley. A cold front extends from the eastern surface low across western NY and central PA, and is just barely inside far western Steuben County.

Southeasterly flow ahead of the front has pulled mid-60s dewpoints across the entire CWA, and with a tightening pressure gradient and strengthening low level jet just ahead of the sfc cold front, winds have been gusty, especially at higher elevations. The maritime fetch has kept pushing low clouds into the eastern and southern part of the CWA, though occasionally we'll get a break in the mid clouds which reveals breaks in the stratus on the downslope side of mountain ranges. This might come into play later today as any breaks in the clouds will allow for stronger pockets of instability to develop.

The main rain band near and especially behind the front will push slowly but steadily east through the day. Rainfall amounts between 00-06Z over Steuben County fell a little below some 00Z model projections, but rainfall rates have been slowly intensifying, and are expected to continue this trend, especially as the LLJ intensifies over central parts of the CWA later this morning, enhancing moisture transport.

Ahead of the front, there are a few showers streaming into the area now. Various models and CAMS keep the pre-frontal shower coverage on the low side through most of the morning.

However, models indicate indicate weak instability developing ahead of the front after 18Z, with SBCAPE values generally 200 to 300 J/Kg. The 06Z HRRR shows pockets of moderate instability developing over parts of the Catskills and Poconos after 20Z, in the 500 to 700 J/Kg range. This leads to an uptick in pre-frontal precip, but more importantly could result in isolated discrete thunderstorms tapping into very strong low level wind shear. The HRRR shows 0-1km helicity values in the 200-400 m^2/s^2 range, with a few higher bullseyes here and there. As the frontal band pushes east into the modest instability, most CAMS show deeper embedded convection developing, which will also enhance precip rates. An isolated tornado or two can't be ruled out given the environment, and with very fast storm motions, complex terrain, and a fair distance from radars, they'll be tough to catch and warn on with much lead time if they do manage to spin-up. Otherwise, the main threat today will be damaging straight-line winds given the very strong winds aloft. It won't take a very deep updraft to transfer the momentum to the surface. Keep an eye out for bowing segments embedded in the main frontal precip band.

Still think it will be difficult to exceed flash flood guidance in most areas over a 1 or 3 hour period today outside the Poconos and Catskills. Even there, storm total QPF looks a little lacking, but localized higher amounts will be possible (and not well resolved in the grids) given deeper convection and possible orographic enhancement along south and east-facing slopes.

The back edge of the precip will be sharply defined, and if any precip remains in the far eastern part of the CWA by 06Z, it'll certainly be gone by 09Z. Cooler temperatures will lead to some valley fog west of I-81 late tonight into Friday morning.

Friday itself looks to be a fine autumn day with highs in the mid to upper-60s, light southwest winds, and Partly Sunny skies. A very weak shortwave trough moving through may enhance cloud cover briefly, especially east of Lake Ontario. Any spotty lake effect showers should stay north of our CWA, however.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. 445 AM Update . There will be a better chance of more widespread fog Friday night as temperatures cool into the mid and upper-40s over much of the area, coolest in the valleys across the Twin Tiers, where fog could become locally dense and relatively deep.

The next trough will move into the upper Great Lakes Friday night, and approach us from the west Saturday night. We'll see increasing clouds from the west late Saturday afternoon, especially over the Finger Lakes Region, but should stay precip-free through sunset.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. An strong upper level low pressure system will swing through the area Sunday, bringing NW flow and advecting a cooler Canadian airmass into the region. NW flow off of Lake Ontario should allow clouds to hang around the area through the day and for some rain showers to develop . mostly across the northern and central portions of the CWA. A shortwave trough should move into the area Monday . bringing light rain showers across the area beginning Monday night and into Tuesday. Guidance has not come together yet on the timing of this feature, so the forecast is a blend of the NBM leaning toward the GFS. NW flow behind the shortwave will bring clouds and isolated rain showers on Wednesday.

High temperatures through the period are expected to be in the mid to upper 60s . with upper 50s in the Catskills. Lows should be in the upper 40s to low 50s across the CWA. Monday morning should have the best chance to see colder lows in the mid to low 40s outside of our valleys.

AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. ELM is currently at MVFR and should see scattered rain showers ahead of the front before conditions drop to IFR as the heavy rain band moves overhead around 14z. All terminals will play out the same way as ELM, with scattered showers and MVFR conditions ahead of the front, dropping to IFR as the heavy rain slowly moves through. RME currently is the only exception, with MVFR conditions expected from the morning on as rain is not expected to be as heavy.

Clearing will begin at ELM around 21z and slowly progress eastward as the front moves through. Currently ELM/ITH/SYR are expected to be VFR by the end of this TAF period. All other terminals should climb to MVFR as the heavy rain moves out.

Southerly gusty winds are expected ahead of the front, with gusts up to 25kts through the morning for most areas. Winds should die down a bit in the afternoon as the front approaches. Once the front passes, light WNW winds are expected.

LLWS ahead of the front will be present across the region, with most stations seeing 40-45kts of shear through 15z. It will end earlier at ELM as the front approaches and currently guidance is not showing as strong of a wind field over SYR. We will monitor the area and update the forecast if needed.

Overnight, there will be a chance for fog at ELM as there will be abundant low level moisture and light winds present under a clearing sky. There may be some fog at BGM/AVP but confidence is not high enough to have it in the TAFs.

Outlook .

Thursday Night . Rain ends as front moves out of the area.

Friday . Early morning fog possible, the sunny and VFR.

Saturday through Monday . Mainly VFR, apart from restrictions in valley fog at KELM.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for PAZ048. Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM EDT this evening for PAZ038. Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for PAZ039-040-043-044- 047-072. NY . Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for NYZ057-062. Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ022-024. Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for NYZ055-056.

SYNOPSIS . MJM/MPH NEAR TERM . MJM/MPH SHORT TERM . MPH LONG TERM . JTC AVIATION . JTC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 42 mi60 min E 7 G 11 69°F 1007 hPa67°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 94 mi90 min NNW 1 G 1.9 60°F 1009.8 hPa (+0.3)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 96 mi60 min 60°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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S10
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G11
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G25
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G28
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SE11
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S14
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G24
S11
G18

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY16 mi36 minSE 11 G 197.00 miRain73°F69°F87%1008.4 hPa
Griffiss Air Force Base / Rome, NY22 mi37 minESE 13 G 2010.00 miOvercast75°F66°F74%1010.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSYR

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6SE6SE7E8E9E6E9E7E9E8SE15
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SE10SE12
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1 day agoS13S11S8S11SE9S8SE6E4SE6SE6SE8SE7SE6SE8E5SE8NE3E6E5E7SE6E6E9E7
2 days agoSE11SE9S10SE9SE10SE8E8E8E6E7SE6SE11SE11SE7S6SE10SE10SE9SE11SE10S9SE11SE11S15

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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