Sunrise 5:31 AM   Sunset 8:44 PM Moonrise 1:19 AM   Moonset 12:58 PM

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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1011 Pm Edt Thu May 30 2024
Rest of tonight - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Friday - West winds 5 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Friday night - West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Mainly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Saturday - Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Saturday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday - South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
the water temperature off rochester is 59 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 311055 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 655 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

SYNOPSIS
Dry weather will prevail through Saturday with day to day warming as high pressure drifts across the region today before making its way slowly to the east coast. Weakening low pressure will then move into the Ohio Valley late Saturday night and Sunday, bringing a chance of a showers and a few thunderstorms, especially across Western NY.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
High pressure will drift from the Ohio Valley in the morning to the eastern Great Lakes by late in the day. High clouds in the morning east of Lake Ontario will thin, with abundant sunshine areawide by afternoon. Temperatures will recover nicely after the chilly start, with highs in the low 70s for lower elevations and mid to upper 60s for high terrain.

High pressure centered over Western Pennsylvania will bring another night with good radiational cooling. Warmer air mass in place, so it'll be a bit warmer but it still will be cool with lows ranging from around 40 across the Southern Tier to the mid to upper 40s elsewhere.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A fine start to the weekend with a mid level ridge over cresting over our region. Sunshine to start will soon be followed by an increase in clouds from the west Saturday night ahead of a shortwave trough. Greatest lift and deeper moisture will lie across southern zones, while thinner moisture profiles and farther away from the shortwave will lead to just low chance PoPs for the North Country.
Instability is marginal, with just a general risk for a few thunderstorms.

This now weakening shortwave and its associated showers will exit our region Sunday night. Could be some fog developing in areas where it rained earlier Sunday. Thicker clouds and slightly cooler airmass at 850 hPa will make Sunday a good 5 degrees cooler than Saturday for WNY, while similar highs are expected both days east of Lake Ontario (where some sunshine is possible Sunday).

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A mid level ridge of high pressure will nose its way across the eastern Great Lakes region Monday through Wednesday. This will pave the way for a dry day Monday with still comfortable levels of humidity. By Tuesday and Wednesday humidity will increase some, and some weakening to this ridge may allow for a few showers and thunderstorms to blossom...mainly in the afternoon hours. Coverage of storms Wednesday could be a little more with additional moisture advection.

The next shortwave trough arrives Thursday with likely showers and thunderstorms.

Temperatures will average above normal, especially on Tuesday and Wednesday with low to mid 80s widespread ahead of the next shortwave trough.

AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
High pressure will slowly build across the region providing confidence in VFR flight conditions today and tonight.

Outlook...

Saturday...VFR.
Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms, particularly across Western NY.
Monday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for a shower across the Southern Tier.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance for showers.

MARINE
Winds will become west and increase to around 15 knots on Lake Ontario today, producing a moderate chop on the lake during the afternoon and evening. Light winds will return Saturday as high pressure builds over the eastern Great Lakes.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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