Sunrise 5:34 AM   Sunset 8:27 PM Moonrise 3:41 PM   Moonset 2:38 AM

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LOZ044 Expires:202405200315;;499363 Fzus51 Kbuf 192022 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 422 pm edt Sun may 19 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-200315- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 422 pm edt Sun may 19 2024
Tonight - Light and variable winds. Areas of fog. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - Light and variable winds. Areas of fog in the morning otherwise partly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday night - East winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday night - Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Friday - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 48 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBGM 191901 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 301 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
Increasing sunshine is expected this evening with temperatures rising into the 70s. Monday is looking even warmer, with dry and mostly sunny weather expected. Very warm temperatures are expected Tuesday into Wednesday. There will be a chance for scattered thunderstorms later Wednesday into Thursday as a cold front approaches the region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

3 PM Update

Tonight, high pressure remains in place and with radiational cooling and with plenty of low level moisture (low dew point depressions), valley fog will likely develop over the region.
There is some question as to how extensive the fog will be, and if if can reach some of the mid elevation locations as well. It will be seasonable overnight, with lows in the 50s.

Monday is looking even warmer as 500 mb heights continue to rise towards 580 dm and 1000-500mb thicknesses reach 567dm.
With ridging in place, a stout subsidence inversion around 700 mb will likely keep most of the region capped despite some surface based CAPE able to develop with the heat and humidity.
Once again there is a small chance that terrain and or some lake breezes will help a couple showers or thunderstorms break through the cap, over the Central Southern Tier and SW Finger Lakes but odds are low (20%). The rest of the region will see the fog burn off by mid morning, then mostly sunny skies. The latest trends in the bias corrected guidance is increasing temperatures even more...with highs in the mid to upper 80s for the valley locations...with upper 70s to low 80s over the higher elevations. Winds will be light west-southwesterly under 10 mph.

High pressure and clear skies continue into Monday night, with perhaps some patchy valley fog again. It will be milder, with lows only dipping down into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
248 PM update...
Main concerns in the short term are focused on the hot air mass with well-above-normal high temperatures, along with afternoon/evening showers and storms.

Synoptic pattern will be defined by an upper level ridge extending from the southern Atlantic coast northward into southern New England. A surface high off the coast will draw in moisture from the Atlantic as a potent low pressure system in the central US lifts into the western Great Lakes and several weak waves traverse the ridge of the Appalachians into NY/PA.
The air mass will become unstable during the afternoon periods of these two days. Temperatures will climb into the 80s both days, with some valley or northern Finger Lake plain/western Mohawk Valley locations getting close to 90 on Wednesday.
Surface dew points will only push into the lower 60s, so rising air parcels are expected to only become weak to modestly buoyant. Forcing along these passing waves will interact with the unstable environment in the afternoon and evening to produce some scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Mixed layer CAPE values will hover around the 500-1000 J/kg range on Tuesday and the highest values should be be mostly confined to western and the lake plain south of Ontario. Greater instability is expected to be present on Wednesday...jumping up to 800-1500 J/kg. Deep layer shear will be minimal across the region as the region will be generally situated under the upper ridge axis. This will cause storms to be mostly pulse-type and on the weak end of the intensity spectrum.

This period will definitely need to be watched if the stronger dynamics to the west end up shifting eastward closer to the more unstable air. At this time, widespread severe weather is not expected.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
248 PM update...
The cold front to the west is expected to push to the east through the region Wed night into Thu this week and will take advantage of the 1-1.5 inches of PW, forcing along the front and a corridor of instability to produce an axis of convection that will move through the Northeast US during the day Thursday.
Thursday will most likely be the most favorable day for strong to possibly severe thunderstorms as this front moves through.

The air mass behind the front will be of Canadian origin and quite dry and cool. Surface dew points in the 40s and afternoon highs in the 70s will be a nice relief from the hotter conditions earlier in the week. The next chance of rain looks to be Saturday night into Sunday.

AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Generally VFR level scatter clouds around this afternoon and early evening, before skies clear.

Tonight, clear skies will likely bring fog formation once again; developing after 03-06z Monday. ELM has the best chance at fog, being in valley, and it could be dense here. Went ahead and indicated a time of IFR/LIFR VSBYs here, especially from about 08z to 12z early Monday morning. For the rest of the TAF sites, during this 8-12z time period have indicated the potential for MVFR light fog/mist around the region. There remains a good deal of uncertainty in exactly where the fog will set up overnight into Monday morning, and just how low the VSBYs will go. Will the fog be confined to just the valleys, or more widespread like some of the guidance is indicating...again, not confident either way at this time. Will need to monitor trends in the observed conditions and updated model guidance to get a better feel for this. The nights are getting shorter, but there seems to still be enough cooling and time for some fog formation.

Any fog should burn off after 12-13z Monday morning, with a return to VFR conditions expected for the rest of the day.

Winds will be light and variable under 5 kts through the period.

Outlook...

Monday afternoon through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Some showers possible late Wednesday through Thursday.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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