Friday, October15, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Holley, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 6:31PM Friday October 15, 2021 11:38 PM EDT (03:38 UTC) Moonrise 3:47PMMoonset 12:46AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ042 Niagara River To Hamlin Beach Along Lake Ontario- 751 Pm Edt Fri Oct 15 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from Saturday morning through late Monday night...
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Saturday night..West winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of waterspouts. Lake effect showers with some rumbles of Thunder possible. Waves 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Sunday..West winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of waterspouts. Lake effect showers with some rumbles of Thunder possible. Waves 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Sunday night..West winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of waterspouts in the evening. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ042 Expires:202110160315;;744952 FZUS51 KBUF 152351 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 751 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ042-160315-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holley, NY
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location: 43.22, -78.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 160243 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1043 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021

SYNOPSIS. A deepening area of low pressure will pass to our west tonight, shoving a cold front across the region and bringing showers and thunderstorms with it. Following the cold front, breezy conditions will remain through the weekend while also bands of lake effect rain oscillate to the east and southeast of the Lakes through early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/. A warm front has pushed north to Lake Ontario . temporarily bringing an end to the threat of strong convection over the western counties. There can still be some gusty storms east of Lake Ontario though where residual shear to the tune of 150 m2/s2 will be able to support some rotating storms. The activity over the far western counties will pick up after 06z . as convection will be found ahead of an approaching cold front. These showers will include heavy rain and possibly some gusty winds.

As we open the day on Saturday . the aforementioned cold front will be in the process of pushing through the western counties. Widespread heavy showers will accompany the frontal passage. The showers will taper off from west to east during the midday and afternoon . but as notably chillier air moves in behind the front . lake effect showers will quickly develop east and southeast of both lakes.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. A strong cold front will exit to the east Saturday afternoon while cold air advection moves into western and central NY. The associated upper level trough will become negatively tilted as the trough axis swings across the region Saturday afternoon-Saturday evening. Strong forcing with diffulent flow aloft will result in showers across the region with the chance for thunderstorms east of the Genesee Valley. High PWATS will be diminishing from west to east across the region as the front moves to the east. A few strong storms are possible from interior Southern Tier, Finger Lakes and into the North Country with a threat of gusty winds and heavy rain. High temperatures will be met Saturday morning across western NY with highs in the low 60s. A longer period of warming will occur east of the Genesee Valley into Saturday afternoon where highs in the mid to upper 60s are expected.

Temperatures will fall Saturday afternoon-Saturday night under westerly flow. Boundary layer mixing will likely continue Saturday night with gusty, westerly winds. Temperatures at 850mb will be falling to the low single digits (Celsius) by Sunday morning. A lake response will kick in Saturday night as delta T's are easily met with Lake Erie temperatures in the 15-19 C and Lake Ontario temperature in the 12-16C. An upper level trough will be overhead Saturday night through Sunday night. Synoptic moisture combined with a cold airmass moving over the warm Lakes will result in lake enhanced rain showers across the region. Scattered rain showers are expected across the region Saturday night into Sunday morning with lake enhanced bands east-southeast of the Lakes. Winds become west- northwest Sunday afternoon as a cold front moves through the region. Temperatures at 850mb will further fall to the minus low single digits. This will increase the coverage of showers across the entire region with enhancement southeast of the Lakes. The trough will move into New England Sunday night and synoptic moisture will diminish overnight. Lake effect rain showers will continue southeast of the Lakes into Monday.

A shift in temperatures expected through Monday night as temperatures fall below normal. Highs will rise into the mid 50s Sunday and Monday with lows in the 40s Saturday night and Sunday night. Breezy conditions expected Sunday and Monday with gusts up to 25-30 mph.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Strong ridge of high pressure still looks to influence our weather for the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe, however the large upper trough looks to possibly get hung up over New England for an additional 12- 18 hours as ridge to the west over the upper Great Lakes tries to nudge it eastward. That said, our area should be under the anticyclonic umbrella of the eastern side of the ridge, so still expecting dry weather for at least Tuesday through Wednesday. Caveat being that if this trend continues, small chance for a shower could creep back in the forecast across areas east of Lake Ontario toward the start the period.

The other side of this coin is that this would possibly lead to a delay in the next system that's due to impact our area by the same amount of hours. This would possibly hold off the next chance of showers associated with the next storm system until sometime Thursday versus Wednesday night. Will continue with generally Chc PoPs for the second half of the period at this time. However, if this trend continues, may need to trend back on PoPs for Wednesday night and Thursday with future packages.

Temperatures will be a bit above average for the majority of the period, before trending back to near normal for the end of the work week.

AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. VFR cigs will deteriorate to IFR to MVFR levels overnight as a warm front will gradually push northward through the region. Fairly widespread showers and possible thunderstorms will be found east of Lake Ontario . with the activity returning the western counties after 06z.

Widespread showers with heavy rain will accompany IFR to MVFR cigs Saturday morning when a cold front will cross the region. Cigs will grudgingly improve to VFR levels late in the day.

VFR to MVFR cigs are forecast for Saturday night as lake effect rain showers will set up east/southeast of both lakes. This activity could include some thunder and lightning at KJHW and KROC.

Outlook .

Sunday . VFR/MVFR with a chance of lake effect rain showers east of the lakes. Breezy. Monday . MVFR in lake effect rain showers southeast of the Lakes, otherwise VFR. Tuesday and Wednesday . VFR.

MARINE. Southwest wind tonight ahead of a strong cold front. While winds may occasionally reach small craft criteria on Lake Erie ahead of the front, the long duration small craft conditions will be behind the cold front Saturday and into the beginning of next week. Winds will average from a WNW direction with 15 to 25 knots.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LOZ043>045. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for LOZ042.



SYNOPSIS . Fries/Thomas NEAR TERM . RSH SHORT TERM . HSK LONG TERM . JM AVIATION . RSH MARINE . Fries/Thomas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 22 mi50 min 67°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 24 mi38 min SSE 8.9G9.9 67°F 1006.4 hPa (-2.7)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 37 mi38 min S 4.1G5.1 64°F 1006.1 hPa (-1.7)
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 44 mi38 min ENE 12G16

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY21 mi44 minSE 56.00 miFog/Mist67°F66°F97%1005.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KROC

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW3SW5SW6SW7SW5SW7SW5SW8W3W7W6W5W8NW4000E4E5E43SE7SE6SE5
1 day agoSW3W4W3SW4W4SW30SW7SW4SW4SW5W434SW4E300SE3000S3S3
2 days agoSW8SW9SW10SW8SW8SW6SW6SW7SW5SW6SW8W10W9W8W8W10W7W6W50W3W4W4SW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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