Sunrise 6:35 AM   Sunset 8:48 PM Moonrise 2:31 AM   Moonset 11:54 AM

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LMZ847 Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi- 1105 Am Edt Wed May 1 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 pm edt this afternoon - .
Rest of today - Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Tonight - West winds around 10 knots veering northeast toward daybreak. Partly cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Thursday - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves around 1 foot. Thursday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Friday - South winds 15 to 20 knots veering northwest late in the day. Rain showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Saturday - East winds around 10 knots backing west, then veering northwest late in the day. Mostly Sunny. Waves around 1 foot. Sunday - Northwest winds around 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KGRR 011804 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 204 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers exit this morning, another low chance Thursday

- Breezy Winds continue

- Best Rain Chances are Friday and Next Tuesday

- Warm Pattern Persists through Middle of Next Week

DISCUSSION
Issued at 337 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

- Lingering showers this morning, then again Thursday

There is a broken line of light showers over Lake Michigan as of 07z this morning that is trying to make its way over the area. This rain activity is out ahead of a low level jet that is pushing 50 knots, and bringing a temporary surge of some moisture and warmth aloft.
Drier air at the sfc is eating away at the leading edge of the rain.
Over the next 2 to 4 hours, the moisture aloft will be low enough and some low level moisture arrives to bring our best chance of rain, which is still not great.

After the next 2 to 4 hours, the nose of the low level jet translates east quickly, and we lose moisture aloft quickly. Other than the early morning light showers and clouds, we will see clearing take place by mid-late morning from West to East.
Temperatures will not really be affected as the air is not really different behind the system than ahead of it. Highs will be in the 70s.

Dry weather will hold on then from this morning through Thursday morning with upper ridging building in and amplifying a bit. Our next threat of rain will be Thursday afternoon. This will be somewhat of a similar setup as this morning as a low level jet to our west noses in here late Thursday. The majority of the rain should stay off to our west through Thursday afternoon as the best convergence at the nose of the low level jet is located out there.
We do see a portion of the warm and moist nose clip the area, which will bring a low chance of the rain showers at that time.

- Best Rain Chances are Friday and Next Tuesday

A shortwave pivoting northeast on the ern periphery of the nrn Plains trough on Thursday night and Friday helps send a warm front then cold front through the region. Pops ramp up late Thursday night in mainly wrn sections as the warm front lifts northward and brings in PWATs around 1.25 and mid 50 dew points although at this time the low level jet looks unfavorable for more widespread convection.

On Friday as the sfc cold front drags eastward across the area we see likely pops for showers and storms. The severe wx threat looks low since the best deep layer shear stays to our west and degree of instability is questionable as well.

Only small pops are warranted on Saturday and Saturday night as another weakening sfc frontal boundary slips through then it looks like we end up mainly dry for Sunday/Monday as the main baroclinic zone slips south of MI thanks to sfc ridging building in.

Our next good chance of showers and storms after Friday comes next Tuesday when the sfc high slips away and the frontal zone comes back north as a warm front. Deep layer shear is progged to be better on Tuesday since the Plains upper trough is positioned a bit farther east by that time, so there could perhaps be some stronger storms.

- Warm Pattern Persists through Middle of Next Week

Persistent troughing aloft from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains/south-central Canada through the middle of next week keeps positive height anomalies over the Great Lakes Region. The upshot is for several days in a row with highs temperatures in the 70s which is about 10 degrees above normal for early May. Frequently cooler near Lake Michigan however as is always the case this time of year.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 138 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

- Breezy Winds continue

Gusty winds continue through the rest of the day as a low level jet has mixed to the surface. Winds have shifted to the west and will remain in the 30 to 35KT gust range. Winds will weaken near and shortly after sunset, around 01 to 02Z.
Winds will be light overnight and most of the day tomorrow with clouds overspreading the region tomorrow. Expect VFR through the period with a chance for showers and storms, especially the western TAF sites tomorrow afternoon.

MARINE
Issued at 337 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

We will be able to let the Small Craft Advisory continue as is this morning, and allowing it to expire this afternoon. The core of best winds is moving through right now. Winds will diminish as conditions over the more stable cool waters improve.

The next wind event that might necessitate another Small Craft Advisory looks to begin Thursday afternoon and continues through Thursday night ahead of the next system that will approach the area.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ845>849.

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