Monday, September27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Chester, VT

Version 3.4
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3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 6:38PM Monday September 27, 2021 2:47 AM EDT (06:47 UTC) Moonrise 10:13PMMoonset 1:21PM Illumination 67% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chester, VT
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location: 43.26, -72.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 270550 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 150 AM EDT Mon Sep 27 2021

SYNOPSIS. A warm front will bring scattered showers late tonight through Monday and milder temperatures on Monday with an isolated rumble of thunder possible. A cold front will bring another threat of showers Monday night into Tuesday morning with clearing and seasonable temperatures later Tuesday behind the front. Wednesday looks unsettled with below normal temperatures.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. UPDATE. Made some minor changes to delay onset of POPs by a few hours overnight, as the thicker clouds and widely scattered showers are still over western NY at this time. While temperatures cooled off rather quickly during the evening, they should level out late tonight as clouds move in from the west.

PREVIOUS[1105]. Temperatures cooling quickly in response to the mainly clear skies across the area as a ridge axis moves overhead. Most have already dropped into the low to mid 50s with upper 40s in the higher terrain of the southern Adirondacks as per latest NYS mesonet observations. Clear skies will be maintained through about 06 - 09 UTC until mid-level clouds from the Great Lakes finally overspread into our region. Until then, temperatures will continue to cool into the upper 40s to low 50s before clouds arrive and temperatures turn steady. Some patchy fog is possible as temperatures approach their respective dew points which are in the upper 40s for most areas. Once the clouds roll in, fog should dissipate.

Previous discussion . mainly clear skies across eastern NY and western New England as upper level ridging and strong area of subsidence takes control. Temperatures will decrease quickly tonight as clear skies and a decoupled boundary layer promote radiational cooling conditions. Most areas have already cooled into the 50s and with dew points in the mid to upper 40s, temperatures have more room to drop. Until the mid-level clouds arrive, temperatures will cool further into the low to mid 50s. Towards 06 UTC, clouds start to overspread the region and the rate of cooling should decrease with temperatures becoming steady in the mid 40s to low 50s.

Warm air advection increases towards 09 - 12 UTC as a mid-level warm front lifts northward towards the forecast area. A surface low looks to develop along the baroclinic zone in the Great Lakes but the best moisture and forcing are still west by 12 UTC so only included slight chance low end chance POPs for the southern Adirondacks and the western Mohawk Valley through this time when isolated to scattered showers start to approach. With forecast soundings indicating dry air in the low levels, any showers will likely fall out of a mid-level cloud deck with some showers potentially evaporating before reaching the ground.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. 850mb warm advection increases tonight around ridge of high pressure south of our area. 850mb temps rise from +4 to +7C this evening to +9 to +13C by Monday morning. Lift associated with warm advection is forecast to produce clouds and showers across the northern half of the area from late tonight into Monday. Showalter indices go negative from time to time so can't rule out an isolated rumble of thunder. Precipitation amounts look to be light, generally a quarter inch or less. Lows tonight generally in the 40s to around 50. With the mild 850 temps Monday afternoon temps should be above normal from the Mohawk Valley southward where breaks in the clouds should help temps rise into the mid 70s in the valleys. Northern high terrain areas look to be cooler with clouds and showers and highs in the 50s and 60s.

Monday night, low pressure develops along the front and high pressure starts to push in from the upper Great lakes. The wave of low pressure looks to bring another round of showers to central and southern areas Tuesday night into Tuesday morning. Once again, showalter indices go negative so thunder can not be ruled out. With mostly cloudy skies Monday night low temps only drop to the 50s with some upper 40s possible in southern Adirondacks and higher terrain of southern vermont.

By later Tuesday, low pressure near Maine and high pressure over Great Lakes combine to bring a northerly flow of cooler and drier air to the area. Skies should gradually clear during the afternoon. There will be a large range in high temperatures from the 50s over the southern Adirondacks and hills of southern vermont to the lower 70s across the far southern part of our forecast area.

Tuesday night looks to be partly cloudy and cold. Some areas of frost are possible where skies remain mostly clear as 850 temps are generally between +1 an +5C. Lows forecast in the 30s and 40s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. The main story for the long term period will be a closed low that perpetuates over the Northeast from Wednesday through potentially Friday as we remain on the east side of an omega block. However, riding from the Central CONUS gradually pushes eastward over the weekend, which should result in improving conditions. Read on for details.

We start the long term on Wednesday with a closed ~550-555dm low over northern New England and a highly amplified ~585-590dm ridge over the Midwest. Blocked flow allows the closed low to persist over the Northeast through the second half of the week as multiple shortwaves rotate around the low. With 500hPa temperatures nearing -20C to -25C, mid-level lapse rates steepen to 6C/km to 7C/km which should result in stratocumulus clouds, especially during peak heating. In addition, the instability under the cold pool should generate scattered showers, especially in the higher terrain areas of the southern Adirondacks, Upper Hudson Valley, southern VT and the Berkshires. The deterministic guidance is in generally fair agreement that 850hPa temperatures drop to +1C to +3C with even hints on the GFS and CMC that northerly flow ushers sub-zero 850hPa air into the southern Adirondacks. We therefore show some pockets of rain/snow mix in the higher peaks of the southern Adirondacks Wed night. Such chilly temperatures aloft will also support seasonably cool temperatures at the surface Wed and especially Thurs when daytime highs may struggle to rise out of the low 60s. According to climatology, high temperatures in late September are in the mid 60s. Overnight lows will also turn chilly and fall-like with lows in the low to mid 40s Wed and Thurs night.

By Friday, our closed low finally starts to exit into the Canadian Maritimes as strong ridging and surface high pressure builds northeastward out of the Southeast U.S. Deterministic guidance suggests that the ridging struggles to take control of the Northeast for very long as our cut-off low may maintain control just off shore from the Canadian Maritimes with additional shortwaves within the active northern branch of the jet stream sending more shortwaves our way which may act to flatten out any riding. There are still many differences between the ECWMF, CMC and GFS regarding how the synoptic pattern will evolve over the weekend so we maintained a generally dry forecast with seasonably daytime temperatures in the 60s and overnight lows in the 40s.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. With mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and light and variable to calm conditions will be favorable for some patchy fog at KGFL and KPSF early this morning before mid-level deck of clouds move in from the west.

Warm air advection will bring clouds and chances for some showers to the area with better chances at KGFL Monday morning. Have addressed the threat for showers at KGFL with VCSH due to expected coverage of activity. A cold front will press southward across the area Monday night bringing chances for showers to the area Monday night. Again have addressed the threat with VCSH KGFL with chances at the other TAF sites coming after 06Z/Tuesday.

Light and variable to calm winds overnight with a southerly flow developing Monday. South to southwest winds will increase to 8 to 10 knots Monday with gusts into the teens mainly during the afternoon.

Outlook .

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

FIRE WEATHER. A warm front will bring scattered showers late tonight through Monday and milder temperatures on Monday with an isolated rumble of thunder possible. A cold front will bring a threat of showers to southern areas Monday night into Tuesday morning with clearing and seasonable temperatures behind the front. Wednesday looks unsettled with below normal temperatures.

RH values will rise overnight to 80 to 100 percent. RH values fall to 60 to 80 percent on Monday and recover to 80 to 100 percent again Tuesday morning. Winds will become light and variable tonight before increasing to 10 to 20 mph from the southwest on Monday.

HYDROLOGY. Forecast precipitation during the next 7 days is one half inch or less. River levels should slowly recede during the period so no hydro issues are anticipated.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. MA . None. VT . None.

SYNOPSIS . SND NEAR TERM . JPV/Speciale SHORT TERM . SND LONG TERM . Speciale AVIATION . IAA FIRE WEATHER . SND HYDROLOGY . Thompson


Weather Reporting Stations
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On 03/09/2021 the NDBC primary processing servers were shut off due to a facilities issue. Station pages on the NDBC website are not updating and there is no ETR at this time. We will update this banner as we learn more.
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 96 mi62 min WSW 1.9 55°F 1012 hPa50°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Springfield, Hartness State Springfield Airport, VT8 mi53 minN 010.00 miFair47°F46°F97%1013.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVSF

Wind History from VSF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4NW9
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2 days agoSE4S5S7S6CalmSW3SW4CalmCalmSW3SW5W533W6W5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
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Mon -- 04:55 AM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:12 AM EDT     3.80 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:23 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:59 PM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:19 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:39 PM EDT     4.84 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.52.51.91.30.60.30.9233.53.83.62.921.30.90.50.30.723.44.34.74.8

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
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Mon -- 04:45 AM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:04 AM EDT     3.80 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:23 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:49 PM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:20 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:31 PM EDT     4.84 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.42.41.81.20.60.312.13.13.63.83.62.81.91.30.90.50.30.92.23.54.44.84.8

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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