Sunrise 6:00 AM   Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 7:44 AM

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LOZ044 Expires:202404281515;;512921 Fzus51 Kbuf 280810 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 410 am edt Sun apr 28 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-281515- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 410 am edt Sun apr 28 2024
Today - South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of showers from late morning on. Waves 2 feet or less. Tonight - West winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Monday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Monday night - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Tuesday - East winds less than 10 knots becoming northwest. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday - West winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers Thursday night. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 46 degrees.

LOZ005
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FXUS61 KBUF 281539 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1139 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak frontal boundary will sag southwards from Lake Ontario tonight
and this could touch off a few showers
especially near or east of the lake. The front will remain stalled over our area on Monday with afternoon temperatures ranging from the lower 60s north of the boundary to the lower 80s across the Southern Tier. While there can be an afternoon shower or thunderstorm well south of Buffalo and Rochester...most areas will be rain free. Temperatures this week will average well above normal...especially Thursday and Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
An arm of loosely organized shortwaves extending to the east from the Upper Great Lakes will lift northwards across our region this afternoon. While this will certainly be enough to support scattered to likely pops for showers and 'garden variety' convection...the vast majority of the afternoon will be rain free. As we press through the mid and late afternoon...the activity over the Southern Tier will peeter out with some clearing possible.

Otherwise...this afternoon will be somewhat humid with temperatures that will be close to 70 with widespread mid and even upper 70s across the Genesee valley and Finger Lakes region.

While the wave of shortwave energy will push north of our forecast tonight...a weak cold front will sag south from Lake Ontario. This boundary could touch off a few inconsequential showers...mainly near and east of Lake Ontario...but more noticeably it will set the stage for a duality in temperatures. The bisecting nature of the front will lead to overnight lows that will range from the mid 40s across the North country to between 55 and 60 across the Southern Tier.
Along with more shower activity to the north of the stalling boundary...there will also likely be some fog.

On Monday...the aforementioned west to east oriented frontal boundary will be stalled across our forecast area. Low level convergence in the vcnty of the boundary that could result in some afternoon showers and thunderstorms well south of Buffalo and Rochester...otherwise impressive ridging aloft with relatively dry air in the mid levels should prevent widespread pcpn from breaking out. The bisecting frontal boundary will keep a large temperature range over our region with max temps ranging from the lower 60s in the Thousand Islands region to the lower 80s across the Southern Tier.

Monday night...a negatively tilted mid level trough over the Upper Great Lakes will shove its associated cold front across Lower Michigan and southern Ontario. While this in turn will push our stalled frontal boundary out of our region...we will have to turn our attention to the showers and thunderstorms that will be targeting our region from the northwest. Most of this activity should hold off until after midnight
Unfortunately
this scenario will most certainly set the stage for unsettled weather on Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
A surface cold front will slowly make its way east across New York State on Tuesday...and in the process will generate fairly widespread showers along with some scattered thunderstorms.
Given current timing projections for the frontal passage...the best instability and therefore the best chance for any thunderstorms will lie from interior sections of the Southern Tier northeastward across the Finger Lakes and North Country.
While some shear will be in place...the currently expected amount of cloud and shower coverage will likely help to keep available instability across our region weak to modest...with the better instability (and therefore the best chances for any stronger storms) likely remaining confined to our south and east. Meanwhile PWATs of 1.25-1.50" will probably support at least some potential for some locally heavier downpours. As for temps...highs will mostly range from the mid 60s to mid 70s...with the warmest readings across the upper Genesee Valley and interior portions of the Finger Lakes.

By Tuesday evening...the increasingly wavy frontal boundary will lie to the east of our region. A lingering potential for some showers along our southeastern periphery of this slowly departing system Tuesday evening will eventually give way to a return to drier weather overnight and especially Wednesday as a weak bubble of high pressure over the central Great Lakes builds east across our region and gradually strengthens...with dry weather then continuing through Wednesday night as the high drifts across New England. Even with at least a somewhat cooler airmass in place temps should still easily remain above average for the last 36 hours of this period...with lows Tuesday and Wednesday nights mostly in the upper 40s to lower 50s...and highs on Wednesday generally running in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Moving into the long term portion of the forecast...the medium range guidance packages are in good agreement on the axis of broad upper level ridging sliding across our region on Thursday...with a nice southerly low-level return flow in place in between high pressure along the New England coastline and low pressure over the nation's midsection. This should result in a summerlike day with fairly widespread highs in the 70s to lower 80s. Cannot completely rule out a shower or two along our northwestern periphery later on in the day as a warm front attendant to the Plains system snakes toward our region...however at this point the day appears to be largely dry.

After that...our weather should remain rather warm but should also begin to trend more unsettled through Friday as the aforementioned storm system lifts across the Upper Great Lakes and swings its trailing cold front toward our region. The most unsettled conditions of this period then look to come Friday night/Saturday as the cold front crosses our region and provides our next chance for showers and a few thunderstorms...with the increased pcpn and introduction of somewhat cooler air also allowing temps to pull back a bit for Saturday (though these should still remain above normal).

AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A warm frontal segment will move ENE across the area this afternoon.
This will produce some showers with scattered thunderstorms. Fairly widespread MVFR cigs are expected with this, with brief/localized IFR vsby in downpours and thunderstorms possible. Coverage expected to be very sparse and brief so did not include this in TAFs.

Frontal boundary will meander south tonight, resulting in lower cigs and some fog tonight. IFR flight conditions are likely to develop along this boundary, with areas of vsby 1SM or less in fog at times. Fog and low cigs will mainly impact KBUF/KIAG/KROC/KART with KJHW remaining south of the boundary.

Outlook...

Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Monday night and Tuesday...MVFR/VFR with showers becoming likely along with a chance of thunderstorms.
Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR.

MARINE
A general weak southwesterly flow today. This will result in conditions remaining below advisory criteria. This being said, a few thunderstorms will become possible today with locally higher winds and waves possible. Increasing northeast winds will result in choppy conditions along the south shores of Lake Ontario late tonight into Monday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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