Thursday, September23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sodus Point, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 7:02PM Thursday September 23, 2021 7:32 PM EDT (23:32 UTC) Moonrise 7:31PMMoonset 8:28AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario- 215 Pm Edt Thu Sep 23 2021
This afternoon..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Rain. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. A chance of waterspouts in the afternoon. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. A chance of waterspouts in the evening. A chance of showers in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of waterspouts Saturday night. A chance of showers Saturday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. A chance of waterspouts. A chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Monday..West winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of waterspouts during the day. A chance of showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
LOZ044 Expires:202109232115;;066450 FZUS51 KBUF 231815 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 215 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ044-232115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sodus Point, NY
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location: 43.27, -76.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 232307 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 707 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will cross Central NY this evening, with the steadiest and heaviest rain ending over the eastern Lake Ontario region later this evening. Much cooler and drier weather will return for most areas on Friday, except northeast of Lake Erie where some lake effect rain showers will impact the Niagara Frontier. Another cold front will then bring a chance of more showers on late Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/. A closed off and vertically stacked surface/mid level low will move slowly northward across Lake Huron overnight. Meanwhile, an associated cold front over Central NY and the eastern Lake Ontario region will continue to move slowly east tonight. Strong moisture transport/low-level frontogenesis and dynamics in form of upper diffluence will support a swath of moderate to heavy rain along the slowly advancing cold front. 12hr totals in the eastern Lake Ontario region through 06z/2AM tonight likely will top out at 1.25 to 1.75 inches with most of that occurring through this evening. So far the rain has been spread out, longer duration enough to mainly result in rises in smaller creeks and rivers, and some ponding on roadways but the risk of widespread flooding remains low.

Farther west, a mid level dry slot will keep most areas dry through much of tonight, with just a few sprinkles or spotty light showers this evening across Western NY near the leading edge of deeper wrap around moisture and forcing downstream of the closed low.

Steady rain will exit east of Lewis County shortly after midnight tonight which will leave the vast majority of the area rain-free. The exception is the Niagara Frontier where a band of lake effect rain over Lake Erie and the Canadian shore will move into areas near the Niagara River very late tonight. Persistent winds will limit radiational cooling and potential for fog, especially across the Niagara Frontier where winds will gust to 30 mph near the lakeshores. Even with limited radiational cooling, the cooler air mass will support low temperatures from the mid 40s to lower 50s.

On Friday, a band of lake effect rain will move southeast across the Niagara Frontier including the Buffalo area in the morning. Mesoscale model guidance is suggesting this band may be quite organized for a few hours in the morning with strong synoptic support from the tail of the mid level trough axis superimposed on lake effect processes. This may produce some downpours for the morning commute in Buffalo and the Northtowns. This band of lake effect rain will weaken by midday as better synoptic scale support and moisture move off, and diurnal mixing disrupts lake effect convergence.

Eventually could see some lake effect at east end of Lake Ontario as well, but less over-water instability and not as favorable moisture profile should result in less showers than downstream of Lake Erie. A breezy day near the lakeshores (gusts to 30 mph common) and cool with a mix of sun and clouds for all areas with temperatures in the afternoon reaching lower to mid 60s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. Friday Night an opening upper level low will be advancing across James Bay, taking a plume of moisture with it. This moisture, combined with initial 850 hPa temperatures of +4 to +5C will generate lake effect rain showers through the Saint Lawrence Valley. Lake effect will be quick to end with warming in the mid levels and ambient moisture decreasing.

Thereafter the remainder of the night will be dry with subtle ridging of high pressure passing across our region, as well as our region lying between two moisture plumes. It will be cool Friday night with interior regions dropping down into the lower 40s.

The next upper level low continues to have a spread among the operational model solutions, with how far south it drops across the Great lakes region, as well as begin and end time of when it closes off from the main flow. This results in timing issues for synoptic rain showers, as well as placement of lake effect rain bands within the cool airmass aloft. Rain showers ahead of a cold front will likely push into WNY through the afternoon hours of Saturday, with the area of rain transitioning to more lake effect Saturday Night east of both lakes as temperatures at 850 hPa drop down to +4 to +6C.

Will then have chance PoPs Sunday and Sunday Night with the upper level low nearby . though placement of this feature is still with a fair amount of uncertainty. Greatest certainty for rain showers will be east of the lakes (lake effect rain/upslope) with a lower probability for showers across the Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes region. It will be cooler on Sunday with highs only in the low to mid 60s . which are a degree or two below normal.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. With cold air advection behind the earlier passing cold front, the potential for lake effect/enhanced showers will continue downwind of the lakes into Monday. Some guidance is split on the pattern overall, with some guidance pushing another front through Monday afternoon, causing more widespread showers, while some other guidance is more purely a lake response. Overall, with a trough over the region into Monday night, that potential for showers will be there. For now, considering model spread, going with widespread slight chance for most of the area on Monday, with chance POPs downwind of the lakes with 850H temps around 5C.

As ridging increases behind the departing trough, showers will taper off from west to east. Slight chance POPs will linger for the southeastern portions of the area into Tuesday, generally from near the NY/PA border through the Northern Finger Lakes and the Western Adirondacks. With a Canadian high pressure building in from the north, mostly dry and quiet weather is expected for Wednesday into Thursday.

Temperatures will be near, to a few degrees above normal for the long term period. Daytime highs will be in the mid 60s to around 70 from the higher terrain to the lower elevations respectively.

AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. A band of moderate to heavy rain will continue to move slowly east across the eastern Lake Ontario region this evening, with rain ending from west to east through the first half of the night. Areas of MVFR and local IFR will continue in pockets of heavy rain this evening, with improvement to mainly VFR overnight. Farther west, VFR will prevail most of the night with a few pockets of MVFR CIGS across higher terrain.

A band of lake effect rain over Lake Erie and along the north shore of Lake Ontario in Canada overnight will move eastward as boundary layer flow veers from SSW to SW. This will bring a band of lake effect rain into the Niagara Frontier including KIAG and KBUF late tonight and Friday morning. Expect conditions to drop to at least MVFR within the band of rain, with some potential for a few hours of IFR around 12Z Friday when the band is strongest. This band of lake effect rain will break up and diminish in the afternoon, with most areas returning to VFR.

Outlook .

Saturday and Sunday . MVFR/VFR with a chance of showers. Monday and Tuesday . VFR.

MARINE. Winds shifting to the SSW behind the cold front and eventually to the SW. Cooler temperatures behind the front will allow for better mixing, so continued to go on higher side of model guidance for winds behind the front tonight through Friday. Winds and waves have supported hoisting Small Craft Advisory headlines for the Upper Niagara River and Lake Erie tonight through Friday. Small craft headlines are also in effect for the northeast end of Lake Ontario late tonight through Friday.

There's a risk for waterspouts tonight through Friday night. The best chance for waterspouts will likely be over Lake Erie late tonight through Friday morning along the band of lake effect rain, where convergence and low level vorticity will be maximized, with a strong source of ascent within lake effect showers to stretch low level vorticity.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for LOZ045.



SYNOPSIS . Apffel/Hitchcock NEAR TERM . Hitchcock/JLA SHORT TERM . Thomas LONG TERM . SW AVIATION . Hitchcock MARINE . Apffel/Hitchcock/JLA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 29 mi45 min S 8 G 12 66°F 1009.3 hPa62°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 32 mi33 min SW 8 G 9.9 66°F 1011.5 hPa (+3.0)
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 33 mi33 min WSW 14 G 18 67°F 69°F1009.3 hPa56°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 34 mi45 min 65°F
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 36 mi33 min SSW 9.7 G 12 67°F 68°F1 ft1009.6 hPa (+1.5)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY32 mi39 minS 610.00 miMostly Cloudy65°F62°F90%1009.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFZY

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE7555SE8SE6SE6SE84544566SE6Calm5S5S6S74S6S6
1 day ago3533SE433343Calm3455436433555
2 days agoSE43SE545SE44SE4S5SE5SE6SE54545S7
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5SE34Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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