Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Greece, NY
May 6, 2024 2:59 PM EDT (18:59 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:54 AM Sunset 8:19 PM Moonrise 3:59 AM Moonset 5:52 PM |
LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1003 Am Edt Mon May 6 2024
Rest of today - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight - West winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday - Light and variable winds becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Showers likely. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday - West winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Showers likely during the day. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday - East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Showers likely during the day, then a chance of showers Friday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
the water temperature off rochester is 44 degrees.
the water temperature off rochester is 44 degrees.
LOZ005
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FXUS61 KBUF 061844 AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 244 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure will build across the region providing fair and dry weather through Tuesday. A warm front will cross the region Tuesday night through early Wednesday with some showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Unsettled weather will then last the rest of the week as a trough of low pressure slowly crosses the Great Lakes.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Visible satellite imagery shows the low clouds have dissipated, with just thin high cirrus filtering the afternoon sunshine. Temperatures will continue to run a little above average, with highs mainly in the 65-72 degree range. Light northwest flow will keep the southern and eastern shores of Lake Ontario cooler.
Tonight high pressure will drift east from the Great Lakes into Ontario and Quebec, maintaining dry and quiet weather across our region. The high clouds will clear out and winds will be calm, resulting in good radiational cooling conditions. Lows in the low to mid 40s in most areas.
The surface high pressure ridge axis will gradually slide east into New England, but it will keep the area rain-free during the day Tuesday. Clouds will increase from the southwest during the afternoon, with a small chance of a shower across the Western Southern Tier towards sunset. Otherwise, pleasant and warm with highs in the 70s inland. Cooler along the south shores of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie due to a northeasterly lake breeze.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Tuesday night, a warm front extending from stacked low pressure centered near North Dakota will move across the region from southwest to northeast. This front is likely to generate some convection upstream, with its remnants moving across our area.
Ample elevated instability to support some thunderstorms with this, especially Tuesday evening. Although precipitation will be convective, model agreement supports 70-80% PoPs for our area.
Showers will linger into Wednesday, especially east of Lake Ontario where the front will be last to exit. However, most of the day will be rain-free, especially across Western NY.
Following the warm frontal passage, temperatures will be above normal with highs in the low to mid 70s for lower elevations south of I-90. For Wednesday night, it appears our region will be in between systems, with mainly rain-free weather. Chances for showers will increase from the west late in the night.
The stacked low will finally open into a trough aloft and begin to track slowly eastward Wednesday night through Thursday night.
With this, a surface reflection is forecast to track near the NY/PA border Thursday night. Models typically struggle with the progression of upper level systems like this, and there is some model agreement on the track and timing but fairly good agreement that there will be widespread showers as this system moves through. Chances for thunderstorms will be mainly along and south of the track of the low where there will be some instability. Meanwhile, there will be higher chances for precipitation north of the track since it will be more stratiform precipitation there. This will also bring cooler weather with below normal high temperatures on Thursday.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Showers will mostly taper off from west to east late Friday afternoon into the night as the sfc low tracks east. However, some lingering showers will be possible Saturday morning, especially east of Rochester with a cyclonic flow lingering over the northeast. An incoming ridge for later Saturday will eliminate any remaining showers that may exist across the area.
Another trough dropping southeast out of Canada and across the Great Lakes will increase the shower potential starting Saturday night, BUT there is still very much uncertainty among the models as to track and timing of showers associated with the system. Currently going with chance for showers for most of Sunday, but that can certainly change either way.
Temperatures for the long term period will generally be near normal for most of the period, except for Friday, which still looks cooler than normal.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
High pressure will build across the area tonight, providing confidence in VFR flight conditions for the 18Z TAFs. Just some high cirrus this afternoon, which will move out of the area tonight.
Then some mid-level clouds will approach from the west lake Tuesday.
Outlook...
Tuesday night...VFR/MVFR. Showers with a chance of thunderstorms.
Wednesday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday...VFR/MVFR. Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms.
Friday...MVFR. Showers likely.
Saturday...Mainly VFR. A slight chance of showers.
MARINE
Surface high pressure with negligible winds and waves through Tuesday night. Onshore winds will pick up during the afternoon hours due to lake breeze circulations. Southwest winds will briefly pick up on Lake Erie on Wednesday behind a warm front. Then low pressure passing by to the south will cause easterly winds to increase Thursday and Thursday night with a potential for low-end small craft headlines.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 244 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure will build across the region providing fair and dry weather through Tuesday. A warm front will cross the region Tuesday night through early Wednesday with some showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Unsettled weather will then last the rest of the week as a trough of low pressure slowly crosses the Great Lakes.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Visible satellite imagery shows the low clouds have dissipated, with just thin high cirrus filtering the afternoon sunshine. Temperatures will continue to run a little above average, with highs mainly in the 65-72 degree range. Light northwest flow will keep the southern and eastern shores of Lake Ontario cooler.
Tonight high pressure will drift east from the Great Lakes into Ontario and Quebec, maintaining dry and quiet weather across our region. The high clouds will clear out and winds will be calm, resulting in good radiational cooling conditions. Lows in the low to mid 40s in most areas.
The surface high pressure ridge axis will gradually slide east into New England, but it will keep the area rain-free during the day Tuesday. Clouds will increase from the southwest during the afternoon, with a small chance of a shower across the Western Southern Tier towards sunset. Otherwise, pleasant and warm with highs in the 70s inland. Cooler along the south shores of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie due to a northeasterly lake breeze.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Tuesday night, a warm front extending from stacked low pressure centered near North Dakota will move across the region from southwest to northeast. This front is likely to generate some convection upstream, with its remnants moving across our area.
Ample elevated instability to support some thunderstorms with this, especially Tuesday evening. Although precipitation will be convective, model agreement supports 70-80% PoPs for our area.
Showers will linger into Wednesday, especially east of Lake Ontario where the front will be last to exit. However, most of the day will be rain-free, especially across Western NY.
Following the warm frontal passage, temperatures will be above normal with highs in the low to mid 70s for lower elevations south of I-90. For Wednesday night, it appears our region will be in between systems, with mainly rain-free weather. Chances for showers will increase from the west late in the night.
The stacked low will finally open into a trough aloft and begin to track slowly eastward Wednesday night through Thursday night.
With this, a surface reflection is forecast to track near the NY/PA border Thursday night. Models typically struggle with the progression of upper level systems like this, and there is some model agreement on the track and timing but fairly good agreement that there will be widespread showers as this system moves through. Chances for thunderstorms will be mainly along and south of the track of the low where there will be some instability. Meanwhile, there will be higher chances for precipitation north of the track since it will be more stratiform precipitation there. This will also bring cooler weather with below normal high temperatures on Thursday.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Showers will mostly taper off from west to east late Friday afternoon into the night as the sfc low tracks east. However, some lingering showers will be possible Saturday morning, especially east of Rochester with a cyclonic flow lingering over the northeast. An incoming ridge for later Saturday will eliminate any remaining showers that may exist across the area.
Another trough dropping southeast out of Canada and across the Great Lakes will increase the shower potential starting Saturday night, BUT there is still very much uncertainty among the models as to track and timing of showers associated with the system. Currently going with chance for showers for most of Sunday, but that can certainly change either way.
Temperatures for the long term period will generally be near normal for most of the period, except for Friday, which still looks cooler than normal.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
High pressure will build across the area tonight, providing confidence in VFR flight conditions for the 18Z TAFs. Just some high cirrus this afternoon, which will move out of the area tonight.
Then some mid-level clouds will approach from the west lake Tuesday.
Outlook...
Tuesday night...VFR/MVFR. Showers with a chance of thunderstorms.
Wednesday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday...VFR/MVFR. Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms.
Friday...MVFR. Showers likely.
Saturday...Mainly VFR. A slight chance of showers.
MARINE
Surface high pressure with negligible winds and waves through Tuesday night. Onshore winds will pick up during the afternoon hours due to lake breeze circulations. Southwest winds will briefly pick up on Lake Erie on Wednesday behind a warm front. Then low pressure passing by to the south will cause easterly winds to increase Thursday and Thursday night with a potential for low-end small craft headlines.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY | 3 mi | 149 min | 50°F | |||||
| RPRN6 - Rochester, NY | 5 mi | 59 min | NNW 15G | 50°F | 30.04 | |||
| OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY | 55 mi | 59 min | W 8.9G | 53°F | 30.05 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KROC GREATER ROCHESTER INTL,NY | 12 sm | 65 min | NW 07 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 70°F | 43°F | 38% | 30.01 |
Buffalo, NY,
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