Monday, October25, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ludlow, VT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 5:54PM Monday October 25, 2021 3:06 PM EDT (19:06 UTC) Moonrise 8:51PMMoonset 12:10PM Illumination 77% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ludlow, VT
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location: 43.4, -72.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 251905 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 305 PM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021

SYNOPSIS. We are currently in the lull between two weather systems with dry conditions currently being observed across the region. These dry conditions will continue through around midnight before we see rainfall begin to spread from south to north. A strong low pressure system off coastal New England will bring periods of moderate rain to southern Vermont with lighter rain expected across central and northern Vermont as well as northern New York. This rain will taper off Tuesday night with drier and sunnier conditions expected for the second half of the work week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. As of 305 PM EDT Monday . Rain activity is temporarily coming to an end across the North Country as a band of rainfall enhanced by an area of 850 mb to 700 mb frontogenesis is lifting north of the region and dissipating. Taking a look at the SPC mesoanalysis page, we have begun to enter a warm air advection regime across the region with temperatures aloft beginning to warm. For example, Mt. Equinox near Manchester, VT has warmed 5 degrees over the past several hours while lower elevation stations have remained steady throughout the day. With cloud cover expected to remain entrenched across the region overnight, the warm advection will likely lead to temperatures slowly warming through the overnight hours.

The forecast for overnight tonight and on Tuesday remains quite challenging in regards to precipitation. Let's set the stage. A negatively tilted upper level trough is currently moving across the Ohio Valley and the Great Lakes Region and will continue to track eastward through the overnight hours. A weak surface low has developed just ahead of the upper level trough in a favorable area of upper level divergence and will continue to track northeastward during the overnight hours. This will be the first of two low pressure systems to impact the region over the next 36 hours. As this low moves eastward, a second area of low pressure will move off the Carolina coastline and will get picked up by the aforementioned upper level trough. As it does so, it'll enter an area of favorable jet dynamics and upper level divergence which will help this low to rapidly develop through the day on Tuesday when it moves just to the east of Benchmark.

As this low deepens, the first low we mentioned will begin to weaken as the best upper level support shifts to the strengthening low. A tight precipitation gradient is expected around both surface low pressure systems and the current tracks are less than ideal for bringing rainfall to the region. With the main low pressure system tracking east of Benchmark, it looks like southern Vermont will see a long period of light to moderate rain with central and northern Vermont as well as northern New York seeing closer to a 6 hour of lighter precipitation. Given the further south and east trends of the low track, we have lowered QPF quite a bit with rainfall totals ranging from a half of an inch across the northern tier of counties to up to another inch and a half across southern Vermont. We will see rainfall taper off from northwest to southeast Tuesday night.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 305 PM EDT Monday . The dominant feature for the latter half of this week will be high pressure building in aloft and at the surface. As such, expect dry weather through the period with seasonable temperatures. Any lingering showers over eastern and southern sections of the forecast area Wednesday morning will come to an end by the afternoon as low pressure spins away into the Atlantic. North flow around the departing low will spread a much drier airmass into the North Country, allowing skies to become mostly clear by late in the day and then remaining so overnight Wednesday night. Widespread fog will develop Wednesday night as low level moisture becomes trapped under a strong subsidence inversion. Although the fog will likely persist quite a while into Thursday morning in the usual prone valley locations, do expect sun will be able to break through by the afternoon. Thursday night will be a repeat with valley fog, followed by more sun on Friday. Highs will be in the 50s each day, with overnight lows in the lower to mid 30s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 305 PM EDT Monday . Wet weather is expected for the weekend as a large upper low pressure system migrates across the eastern CONUS. This will allow moisture to stream northward into New England late Friday night, resulting in widespread rainfall Saturday into Sunday. Model guidance is still having a tough time with the handling of this system's associated surface low, with differences in timing and placement, which thereby impacts timing and placement of precipitation. That being said, it looks like Saturday will be the rainiest day of the weekend, with Sunday seeing more showery conditions as the surface low lifts to our northeast and we get wrap- around precipitation in northwest flow. A 50+kt 850mb southeasterly jet will lift across the region, but with warming aloft and widespread rainfall, mixing potential will not be optimal, so gustiest conditions will remain confined to the summits, though some gap winds will be possible in the favored locations. Temperatures over the weekend will range from the 50s in the daytime to upper 30s- mid 40s overnight. The upper low moves to our east Sunday night and Monday, allowing more zonal flow to develop aloft. The result will be a dry day on Monday, with slightly cooler conditions than over the weekend.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Through 18Z Tuesday . Widely variable conditions continue across the region with the passage of precipitation ahead of a warm front. Rain is quickly coming to an end but we will continue to see ceilings range from 2500 to 5000 ft through about 6Z. Thereafter, we will see ceilings begin to drop back to solid MVFR conditions across much of the region. Rainfall will overspread the region after 06Z with the primary focus on rainfall at KRUT, KMSS and KSLK. These three TAF sites are most likely to see lowered visibilities due to moderate rain but have kept them with VFR vsby and MVFR ceilings until we see how heavy the rain is that redevelops. Through the afternoon hours on Tuesday, precipitation will taper off from northwest to southeast with gradually improving conditions as rain ends.

Outlook .

Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Likely RA. Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA. Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. VT . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . Clay NEAR TERM . Clay SHORT TERM . Hastings LONG TERM . Hastings AVIATION . Clay


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Springfield, Hartness State Springfield Airport, VT10 mi72 minNE 43.00 miFog/Mist45°F44°F97%1017.3 hPa
Rutland-Southern Vermont Regional Airport, VT16 mi70 minESE 15 G 1910.00 miOvercast47°F42°F83%1014.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVSF

Wind History from VSF (wind in knots)
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2 days agoSW8SW8W50000NE4000004N50454W65SW7NW8
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Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
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Mon -- 03:38 AM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:56 AM EDT     3.91 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:12 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:37 PM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:57 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:13 PM EDT     5.08 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
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Mon -- 03:28 AM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:48 AM EDT     3.91 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:12 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:27 PM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:58 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:05 PM EDT     5.08 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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