Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hilton, NY
May 6, 2024 1:51 AM EDT (05:51 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:54 AM Sunset 8:19 PM Moonrise 3:58 AM Moonset 5:52 PM |
LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 432 Pm Edt Sun May 5 2024
Tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms this evening, then showers likely after midnight. Areas of fog from late evening on. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Areas of fog in the morning. A chance of showers in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night - West winds less than 10 knots becoming southwest. Mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday - South winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday - West winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Showers likely during the day, then a chance of showers Wednesday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Showers likely during the day, then showers with a chance of Thunderstorms Thursday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Showers during the day, then showers likely Friday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 44 degrees.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 44 degrees.
LOZ005
No data
No data
FXUS61 KBUF 060455 AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1255 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024
SYNOPSIS
A cold front will push across the region overnight, producing a few scattered showers from the Genesee Valley east to the eastern Lake Ontario region. Areas of fog will also continue overnight. High pressure will bring a return to dry weather Monday. The dry weather will last through most of Tuesday before a warm front brings a chance of showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday through early Wednesday.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
A cold front will continue to move slowly east across the area overnight with a few scattered showers from the Genesee Valley eastward. The most likely areas to see measurable rain overnight will be east of Lake Ontario and also across Allegany County. Areas of fog will continue overnight. The most widespread fog will be driven by advection as a warm/moist airmass crosses the cold lakes.
Expect the Lake Erie fog, currently in the Buffalo Metro area, to move south before daybreak into the western Southern Tier as boundary layer flow veers to the northwest and north, with improving conditions in Buffalo by daybreak. Fog will also develop over and east/southeast of Lake Ontario late tonight and early Monday morning.
Weak surface high pressure will then build across the region on Monday and Monday night. There will be a north to south clearing trend during the day Monday. Fair weather Monday night, with mostly clear skies outside of some lingering clouds near the Pennsylvania state line which will be close to the stalled frontal boundary.
Despite the cold frontal passage, afternoon sunshine will allow temperatures to rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s on Monday.
Good radiational cooling Monday night with lows mainly in the 40s. Forecast hedges towards a wider diurnal spread (warmer highs and cooler lows) due to the clear skies and light winds.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/
On Tuesday the axis of surface-based ridging will slowly drift from New York State to New England...while the leading edge of a sprawling mid level trough and associated surface low over the north- central states slowly works its way into the Upper Mississippi Valley
As this does so
a warm frontal boundary snaking southeastward from this system will slowly push northeast across the Ohio Valley...with this feature drawing close enough to support the potential for a few widely scattered showers/an isolated thunderstorm across the Southern Tier later on in the afternoon.
Otherwise...the day should feature continued dry weather with just a modest increase in cloud cover across far western New York. As for temps...the general warm air advection pattern across our region will allow highs to range through the 70s in many areas...though an onshore flow will keep the south and southeastern shores of both lakes notably cooler.
Tuesday night the warm frontal boundary will make its way across western New York while also becoming increasingly wavy over time as a supporting mid-level shortwave ripples eastward across the central/eastern Great Lakes. This will bring a continued southwest- northeast increase in cloud cover and eventually the likelihood of some showers as the night progresses...with a few thunderstorms also becoming possible due to the arrival of some weak elevated instability. Otherwise it will be a notably milder night with lows ranging from around 50 across the North Country to the mid and upper 50s south of the NYS Thruway.
On Wednesday the aforementioned shortwave will slide further east to New England...with one or more surface waves along the now-stalling frontal boundary eventually consolidating into a single broad surface low over southeastern NY and southern New England. As this occurs...any synoptically-driven showers and any embedded storms should tend to taper off from west to east through the day. Latest guidance suggests that this diminishing trend may even be quick enough to support largely dry conditions across far western New York for much of the day...though even there cannot completely rule out a few additional widely scattered afternoon showers/storms as a developing lake breeze convergence zone interacts with diurnally- driven instability. High temps are a bit of a tricky call at this juncture as the various guidance packages all show differing degrees of cooling aloft behind this system...though a rough model consensus suggests that readings may end up ranging from the mid-upper 60s across the North Country to the mid-upper 70s across interior portions of the Finger Lakes and Southern Tier.
Wednesday night a weak bubble of high pressure will slide across New York State...before giving way to a sharp mid-level trough/surface low making their way east from the Upper Midwest/Lower Ohio Valley later on in the night. As a result we can expect partly cloudy skies and largely dry/quiet weather Wednesday evening to eventually give way to increasing clouds and renewed chance of showers across Western New York by later on in the night
Otherwise
lows will generally be in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
On Thursday the mid-level trough will make its way across the central Great Lakes...with its attendant surface low gradually becoming better organized as it slides east across the Upper Ohio Valley and into far southwestern New York. Increasing moisture and DCVA/isentropic upglide out ahead of this system will bring an increasing likelihood of showers across our area from southwest to northeast...with some weak instability also possibly supporting a few embedded thunderstorms across the Southern Tier. With the increased cloud and pcpn coverage expected...highs on Thursday will be cooler than those of the preceding few days...with maxes ranging from the lower 60s across the higher terrain to the mid and upper 60s elsewhere.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
A potent shortwave trough and surface low pressure system will track along the 850H mid-level thermal boundary Thursday night though Friday. This system will likely bring widespread chances for showers and even some embedded rumbles of thunder. Cyclonic flow and along with the trough overhead will result in overall cooler temperatures.
Highs will be found in the 50s for most locales Friday.
Chances for showers decrease Friday night and especially during the day Saturday as shortwave ridging builds in and then moves through the eastern Great Lakes.
After Saturday...the next upstream upstream trough approaches but there are fairly large differences amongst the various guidance packages. Will for now hold close to NBM guidance with the potential for more unsettle weather beginning Sunday into next week.
Overall...this period will end on the cool side with below normal highs temperatures(50s to low 60s).
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A cold front will continue to move slowly east across the region early this morning, exiting the eastern Lake Ontario region by 12Z Monday. The front will continue to produce a few scattered showers through daybreak, mainly east of Lake Ontario and near KELZ.
The bigger impact will be fog and low stratus through early morning with areas of IFR/LIFR. Most of the fog is being driven by advection, with a warm/moist airmass crossing the cold lake waters.
Off Lake Erie, the current area of fog directed towards KBUF/KIAG will continue for a few more hours before moving south into the western Southern Tier (including KJHW) before daybreak. Forecast soundings show drier air quickly arriving at KBUF/KIAG by around 09Z with quickly improving conditions for the busy morning push. The fog will last through 12-13Z at KJHW before improving.
Some fog and low stratus will also form over and east/southeast of Lake Erie through early morning, with some of this possibly impacting KROC and KART briefly.
All of the fog and low stratus will scatter out by mid morning as a much drier airmass moves into the eastern Great Lakes behind the departing cold front. VFR will then prevail for the rest of today and tonight with areas of cirrus.
Outlook...
Tuesday...VFR.
Tuesday night and Wednesday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday...VFR/MVFR. Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms.
Friday...MVFR. Showers likely.
MARINE
Negligible winds and waves through Tuesday. There may be some marine layer fog over Lake Erie and Lake Ontario through early this morning as a warm/moist airmass overlays the cold lake waters.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1255 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024
SYNOPSIS
A cold front will push across the region overnight, producing a few scattered showers from the Genesee Valley east to the eastern Lake Ontario region. Areas of fog will also continue overnight. High pressure will bring a return to dry weather Monday. The dry weather will last through most of Tuesday before a warm front brings a chance of showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday through early Wednesday.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
A cold front will continue to move slowly east across the area overnight with a few scattered showers from the Genesee Valley eastward. The most likely areas to see measurable rain overnight will be east of Lake Ontario and also across Allegany County. Areas of fog will continue overnight. The most widespread fog will be driven by advection as a warm/moist airmass crosses the cold lakes.
Expect the Lake Erie fog, currently in the Buffalo Metro area, to move south before daybreak into the western Southern Tier as boundary layer flow veers to the northwest and north, with improving conditions in Buffalo by daybreak. Fog will also develop over and east/southeast of Lake Ontario late tonight and early Monday morning.
Weak surface high pressure will then build across the region on Monday and Monday night. There will be a north to south clearing trend during the day Monday. Fair weather Monday night, with mostly clear skies outside of some lingering clouds near the Pennsylvania state line which will be close to the stalled frontal boundary.
Despite the cold frontal passage, afternoon sunshine will allow temperatures to rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s on Monday.
Good radiational cooling Monday night with lows mainly in the 40s. Forecast hedges towards a wider diurnal spread (warmer highs and cooler lows) due to the clear skies and light winds.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/
On Tuesday the axis of surface-based ridging will slowly drift from New York State to New England...while the leading edge of a sprawling mid level trough and associated surface low over the north- central states slowly works its way into the Upper Mississippi Valley
As this does so
a warm frontal boundary snaking southeastward from this system will slowly push northeast across the Ohio Valley...with this feature drawing close enough to support the potential for a few widely scattered showers/an isolated thunderstorm across the Southern Tier later on in the afternoon.
Otherwise...the day should feature continued dry weather with just a modest increase in cloud cover across far western New York. As for temps...the general warm air advection pattern across our region will allow highs to range through the 70s in many areas...though an onshore flow will keep the south and southeastern shores of both lakes notably cooler.
Tuesday night the warm frontal boundary will make its way across western New York while also becoming increasingly wavy over time as a supporting mid-level shortwave ripples eastward across the central/eastern Great Lakes. This will bring a continued southwest- northeast increase in cloud cover and eventually the likelihood of some showers as the night progresses...with a few thunderstorms also becoming possible due to the arrival of some weak elevated instability. Otherwise it will be a notably milder night with lows ranging from around 50 across the North Country to the mid and upper 50s south of the NYS Thruway.
On Wednesday the aforementioned shortwave will slide further east to New England...with one or more surface waves along the now-stalling frontal boundary eventually consolidating into a single broad surface low over southeastern NY and southern New England. As this occurs...any synoptically-driven showers and any embedded storms should tend to taper off from west to east through the day. Latest guidance suggests that this diminishing trend may even be quick enough to support largely dry conditions across far western New York for much of the day...though even there cannot completely rule out a few additional widely scattered afternoon showers/storms as a developing lake breeze convergence zone interacts with diurnally- driven instability. High temps are a bit of a tricky call at this juncture as the various guidance packages all show differing degrees of cooling aloft behind this system...though a rough model consensus suggests that readings may end up ranging from the mid-upper 60s across the North Country to the mid-upper 70s across interior portions of the Finger Lakes and Southern Tier.
Wednesday night a weak bubble of high pressure will slide across New York State...before giving way to a sharp mid-level trough/surface low making their way east from the Upper Midwest/Lower Ohio Valley later on in the night. As a result we can expect partly cloudy skies and largely dry/quiet weather Wednesday evening to eventually give way to increasing clouds and renewed chance of showers across Western New York by later on in the night
Otherwise
lows will generally be in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
On Thursday the mid-level trough will make its way across the central Great Lakes...with its attendant surface low gradually becoming better organized as it slides east across the Upper Ohio Valley and into far southwestern New York. Increasing moisture and DCVA/isentropic upglide out ahead of this system will bring an increasing likelihood of showers across our area from southwest to northeast...with some weak instability also possibly supporting a few embedded thunderstorms across the Southern Tier. With the increased cloud and pcpn coverage expected...highs on Thursday will be cooler than those of the preceding few days...with maxes ranging from the lower 60s across the higher terrain to the mid and upper 60s elsewhere.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
A potent shortwave trough and surface low pressure system will track along the 850H mid-level thermal boundary Thursday night though Friday. This system will likely bring widespread chances for showers and even some embedded rumbles of thunder. Cyclonic flow and along with the trough overhead will result in overall cooler temperatures.
Highs will be found in the 50s for most locales Friday.
Chances for showers decrease Friday night and especially during the day Saturday as shortwave ridging builds in and then moves through the eastern Great Lakes.
After Saturday...the next upstream upstream trough approaches but there are fairly large differences amongst the various guidance packages. Will for now hold close to NBM guidance with the potential for more unsettle weather beginning Sunday into next week.
Overall...this period will end on the cool side with below normal highs temperatures(50s to low 60s).
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A cold front will continue to move slowly east across the region early this morning, exiting the eastern Lake Ontario region by 12Z Monday. The front will continue to produce a few scattered showers through daybreak, mainly east of Lake Ontario and near KELZ.
The bigger impact will be fog and low stratus through early morning with areas of IFR/LIFR. Most of the fog is being driven by advection, with a warm/moist airmass crossing the cold lake waters.
Off Lake Erie, the current area of fog directed towards KBUF/KIAG will continue for a few more hours before moving south into the western Southern Tier (including KJHW) before daybreak. Forecast soundings show drier air quickly arriving at KBUF/KIAG by around 09Z with quickly improving conditions for the busy morning push. The fog will last through 12-13Z at KJHW before improving.
Some fog and low stratus will also form over and east/southeast of Lake Erie through early morning, with some of this possibly impacting KROC and KART briefly.
All of the fog and low stratus will scatter out by mid morning as a much drier airmass moves into the eastern Great Lakes behind the departing cold front. VFR will then prevail for the rest of today and tonight with areas of cirrus.
Outlook...
Tuesday...VFR.
Tuesday night and Wednesday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday...VFR/MVFR. Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms.
Friday...MVFR. Showers likely.
MARINE
Negligible winds and waves through Tuesday. There may be some marine layer fog over Lake Erie and Lake Ontario through early this morning as a warm/moist airmass overlays the cold lake waters.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY | 10 mi | 51 min | 57°F | |||||
| RPRN6 - Rochester, NY | 11 mi | 51 min | NW 1.9G | 55°F | 30.03 | |||
| OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY | 56 mi | 51 min | WNW 5.1G | 53°F | 30.03 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KROC GREATER ROCHESTER INTL,NY | 20 sm | 57 min | SW 08 | 10 sm | Overcast | 63°F | 57°F | 83% | 30.00 |
Buffalo, NY,
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