Saturday, October16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Saginaw, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:50AMSunset 6:52PM Saturday October 16, 2021 12:01 AM EDT (04:01 UTC) Moonrise 4:38PMMoonset 2:21AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 956 Pm Edt Fri Oct 15 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from Saturday morning through late Saturday night...
Rest of tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Cloudy with a chance of light showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..West winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Gusts to 25 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of light showers in the morning, then a slight chance of light showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:202110160915;;748731 FZUS53 KDTX 160156 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 956 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-160915-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saginaw, MI
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location: 43.42, -83.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 160345 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1145 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021

AVIATION.

A large area of rain is currently lifting northward out of the Ohio River Valley towards Southeast Michigan. The rain is associated with organized differential cyclonic vorticity advection occurring ahead of a strong PV anomaly. A lot is happening to the thermodynamic environment as a good amount of cold advection is occurred between 2.0 and 10.0 kft agl. Lapse rates have steepened considerably in the lower troposphere which has knocked out the low column inversion. Ceilings have temporarily improved this evening with the loss of the strong static stability. Rain activity will overspread the area again as a strong ageostrophic response to dcva steepens the cold frontal slope. Bulk of data supports VFR rain shower activity tonight with differential near surface cold advection supporting some shallow convective instability and MVFR to potential pockets of IFR after 09Z. Post frontal northwest flow will support a well mixed boundary layer and VFR clouds Saturday.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

* High in ceilings at or below 5000 feet late tonight and Saturday. Low confidence during the mid to late evening.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 422 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021

DISCUSSION .

Showers have thinned considerably across Southeast Michigan this afternoon. Recent models have remain overly aggressive with respect to near-term coverage, thus hedged down and removed all instances of categorical PoPs. As expected, lightning activity has been sparse, but non-zero as a couple strikes cropped up earlier near Dundee. Still possible to see a couple additional isolated strikes between now and 00Z given small amount of elevated instability near the Western Erie and Detroit River communities. Responsible surface low currently resides southeast of Monroe and will continue tracking northeast this evening and overnight. A lull in activity arises late evening before deformation-forced showers lift through late tonight. Overnight lows drop into the upper 40s to low 50s with NW surface wind shift.

Large upper trough progresses eastward Saturday morning with the axis pivoting over Lower Michigan. Notable decrease in H8 temps as the thermal trough works into the Great Lakes with morning values near 10C collapsing to almost 0C by the evening hours. It will take some time for the mid and upper levels to veer northwesterly and mirror the lower troposphere before deep-layer CAA ensues. Expect a sufficiently cooled boundary layer with high temperatures stuck in the mid-upper 50s, a solid 4-7 degrees below climatological normals. Although lapse rates will be steep in the lowest 5 kft (approaching dry adiabatic), saturation layer appears very shallow during the afternoon limiting precipitation to more virga than rain with anything that taps into shallow moisture channel off the warm waters of Lake Michigan. Did leave a period of Slight Chance PoPs for any brief showers that get going within the interior while Lake Huron fetch will suffice for slightly broader activity along the eastern Thumb. Inherited gusts look reasonable given only minor weakening trend from the crossing LLJ. Daytime stratocumulus scatter out after midnight facilitating several hours of nocturnal cooling guiding overnight lows into the 40s. A few inland areas to the north could briefly dip below 40F.

Heights begin to rebound on Sunday as the back edge of the trough arrives. Upper level confluence limits synoptic scale ascent and forecast soundings depict a column largely devoid of moisture. There will be a few afternoon clouds once the PBL matures which also supports renewed breeziness until the evening hours under uniform northwest flow. Amplified upstream ridge atop The Rockies will begin to shear out as Pacific NW PV anomaly intercepts the western edge. Dry and moderating conditions locally with minimal wind Monday through Wednesday before the next wave takes aim at Lower Michigan. Unsettled conditions on Thursday with stacked low followed by a chillier weekend.

MARINE .

A low pressure system over Lake Erie is moving along a frontal boundary stretching across the southern portions of Lake Erie and southwest into Indiana. This system is producing widely scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the central Great Lakes with a greater concentration of activity across Lake St. Clair and Lake Erie this afternoon and evening. Showers and thunderstorms will continue into early Saturday as the main upper trough axis and stronger cold front moves across the western and central Great Lakes. There will be a much greater lake response behind this front as much cooler air filters into the region. The cold air moving over the relatively warmer waters will bring a chance for waterspouts over the weekend. Winds will also increase with sustained winds of 20 to 25 knots likely across Lake Huron Saturday. Gusts will be around 25 to 30 knots. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for all marine zones for Saturday.

HYDROLOGY .

An area of low pressure passes this evening with ample supply of moisture. While most of the heaviest showers remain just to the east, downpours are possible through this evening followed by several rounds of lighter showers late tonight. Total additional rainfall through Saturday morning is forecast to range from 0.25 to 0.50 inches. The long duration and weaker rainfall rates minimize impacts to localized ponding along roadways, poor drainage, and low- lying areas.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 4 AM EDT Sunday for LHZ421-422-441>443.

Lake St Clair . Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 4 AM EDT Sunday for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie . Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 4 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ444.



AVIATION . CB DISCUSSION . KK MARINE . AA HYDROLOGY . KK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 30 mi62 min N 6G7 59°F 1008.1 hPa (-0.7)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 47 mi22 min WNW 7G8 59°F 1008.8 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 63 mi22 min N 4.1G7 56°F 1008.8 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI5 mi67 minNNW 510.00 miFair56°F55°F99%1008.5 hPa
MBS International Airport, MI10 mi69 minWNW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy56°F53°F90%1009.2 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI23 mi67 minN 04.00 miFog/Mist55°F55°F100%1009.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHYX

Wind History from HYX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4SW400S40000E300E4SE30000N3W5W50W4NW4
1 day ago0SE4S5S5S5S5S5S5S5S5S5SW6SW9SW10S10SW3W6W5SW7SW5SW3W4SW3SW4
2 days agoSW5SW6SW6SW5SW5SW6SW5SW6SW7S6SW6SW5SW8SW8SW8SW3W6W4SW4SW3SE4SE4SE4S3

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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