Tuesday, December7, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Wallingford, VT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 4:16PM Tuesday December 7, 2021 12:59 AM EST (05:59 UTC) Moonrise 11:50AMMoonset 8:55PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wallingford, VT
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location: 43.43, -73     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 070511 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1211 AM EST Tue Dec 7 2021

SYNOPSIS. Strong and gusty winds will continue across the North Country tonight with frequent gusts in the 30 to 50 mph causing isolated to scattered power outages. There may even be some snow showers overnight that produce quick bursts of heavier snow showers. Gusty winds continue on Tuesday, but will not be as strong as Monday. Some light snowfall is expected across the area on Wednesday with another warm and windy system possible for the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 1204 AM EST Tuesday . No significant changes required for this update, as winds continue from the west at 15 to 30 knots with some localized gusts in favored trrn up to 35 knts. A few more hours of gusty winds are expected, before 925mb to 850mb layer wind fields decrease by 12z Tues. Sfc analysis places secondary arctic surge approaching the SLV with limited snow shower activity associated with this boundary, due to the lack of moisture/convergence and best dynamics passing to our north. Have maintained some chc pops to cover the potential for a few additional snow showers, but overall impacts wl be minimal attm. The lack of moisture and dwpts quickly falling into the teens/20s, with brisk winds has decreased the potential for any black ice/flash freeze overnight, along with temps still holding above freezing in many spots.

Previous Discussion . Rain is falling across northern New York ahead of a strong cold front that is moving across the eastern end of Lake Ontario. Expect chances of rain to increase and move eastward this afternoon and evening as this boundary progresses eastward. Timing of the front remains virtually unchanged with it expected in the Champlain Valley from around 6-9PM local time. Gusty surface winds of 30-50 mph are still favored as the boundary moves through the region as upstream observations show consistent gusts 25-45mph with some locations reaching 49 mph. These winds are expected to move into the region with the cold front. There continues to be some concerns about winds tapping into faster winds aloft which are evident on radar VAD wind profiles and mountain observations that are showing 60+mph aloft. It wouldn't be too surprising for some locations to mix down some of these faster winds are reach gusts in excess of 50 mph. Current radar shows a fine line beginning to develop west of Watertown, NY while the upper low continues to deepen. With continued maturing expected with the supporting wave, it's reasonable to expect that frontogenesis could also increase. A few thunderstorms along the line would not be out of the question this evening.

Post frontal winds late this evening and overnight will remain gusty through the nocturnal hours. Satellite and surface observations in Canada along and ahead of the Arctic Front show an area of snow showers with surface visibilities lower than 1 mile. Models are beginning to show some support for nocturnal showers highlighting an increased potential for squall-like conditions overnight. Isolated to scattered showers are expected after midnight towards daybreak with some possibly becoming heavy. Additionally, with Lake Champlain temperatures in the upper 40s, an area of snow could develop from the lake to the western slopes of the Green Mountains including the Burlington area.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 353 PM EST Monday . Little overall change in our thinking with a cool night associated with high pres overhead on Tues night, followed by chc for light snow on Weds. 1025mb high pres wl result in a period of mainly clear skies and light winds, which wl allow temps to drop into the single digits SLK/NEK to upper teen/lower 20s for Tues night. For Weds, guidance has continued to trend south with weak area of low pres, while mid/upper lvl trof swings acrs our fa. This energy aloft, combined with some mid lvl moisture wl produce some very light snow shower activity. Have continued with mainly chc pops to cover this potential with any snowfall under 1.0" anticipated. Highs generally on the cooler side of normal with values in the mid 20s to lower 30s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 353 PM EST Monday . A very progressive and changeable pattern anticipated for days 4 thru 7. Weak sfc ridge builds acrs the ne conus for Thurs with cool northerly flow behind departing sfc low pres over eastern Canada. This results in progged 850mb temps btwn -9C and -12C and high temps in the mid 20s to lower 30s again for Thurs aftn. Thurs night into Friday a developing 925mb to 700mb waa on increasing southwest flow wl result in a period of light snow. GFS/ECMWF in generally good agreement with this scenario, but still some disagreement on timing, so have kept pops in the 30 to 40% range. As event timing becomes clearer, likely pops for a 3 to 6 hour window of light snow is expected. General accumulations of a dusting to 2 inches possible. Meanwhile, next large scale/full latitude mid/upper lvl trof develops over the central CONUS on Friday night into Saturday. Guidance continues to show strong low pres sub-985mb tracking to our west acrs the central Great Lakes toward Hudson Bay. Once again placing our cwa on the warmer/windy and wet side of the system. Still some timing differences on precip arrival and overall system evolution, so have kept pops in the high chc range. Given the sfc low pres and progged 850mb wind fields a period of gusty south/southwest winds are possible next weekend associated with this system. Plenty of time to fine tune details, as event draws closer.

AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Through 06Z Wednesday . Breezy west winds 15 to 30 knots continue thru 09z, before slowly diminishing on Tues as winds aloft weaken. Still watching secondary boundary, which could produce a few scattered snow showers at SLK/EFK/MSS btwn 06-09z this morning. Have tempo this potential into these sites, but any snow shower activity wl be brief with mainly mvfr conditions expected. MVFR cigs at SLK improve to VFR by 12z and prevail at all sites on Tuesday.

Outlook .

Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Likely SHRA, Chance SHSN. Saturday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite SHRA.

MARINE. Winds across Lake Champlain will continue to be strong from the west with frequent gusts in the 30 to 40 knot range through the remainder of the night. This will create 2 to 5 foot waves and very choppy conditions. Winds will become more northwest on Tuesday, but gusts in the 20 to 30 knot range can be expected, especially in the morning.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. VT . Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for VTZ001>012- 016>019. NY . Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for NYZ026>031-034- 035-087.

SYNOPSIS . Boyd NEAR TERM . Boyd/Taber SHORT TERM . LaRocca LONG TERM . LaRocca AVIATION . Taber MARINE . Evenson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rutland-Southern Vermont Regional Airport, VT8 mi64 minWSW 12 G 2410.00 miA Few Clouds36°F22°F57%1006.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRUT

Wind History from RUT (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW430SW6W5W4W6W5W6NW5NW5N3N3N40E700SE8SE11SE15
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2 days agoW8SE400NW30000E3S6S55SW3SE4N4W8W11
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Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:33 AM EST     -0.69 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:06 AM EST     4.30 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:50 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:41 PM EST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:20 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:29 PM EST     5.65 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:00 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Troy, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet
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Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
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Tue -- 01:23 AM EST     -0.69 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:58 AM EST     4.30 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:50 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:31 PM EST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:21 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:21 PM EST     5.65 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:00 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Albany, New York, Tide feet
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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