Saturday, October23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Wallingford, VT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 5:57PM Saturday October 23, 2021 4:20 PM EDT (20:20 UTC) Moonrise 7:35PMMoonset 10:11AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wallingford, VT
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location: 43.43, -73     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 231922 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 322 PM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021

SYNOPSIS. Quiet and seasonably chilly weather will continue through Sunday. Then a very active period of weather begins early Monday morning with widespread rainfall expected through Tuesday. This will be followed by additional periods of rain for the latter half of the week and then again next weekend. Temperatures will be mainly near to above normal from Tuesday through the rest of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. As of 321 PM EDT Saturday . Expecting another chilly night tonight as we remain under weak surface ridging overnight. Meanwhile, a weak shortwave rotating around upper low pressure positioned north of the Great Lakes will push by just to our south. The clouds that have persisted through the day today will dissipate this evening as we lose diurnal heating and the aforementioned shortwave moves eastward. This combined with light to nearly calm winds will allow for ample radiational cooling through at least part of the overnight. However, moisture begins to increase from the west as the upper low approaches, so expect patchy cloud cover to return late tonight, especially over northern NY, which will help limit cooling somewhat. Still, most locations should see temperatures similar to last night, and perhaps even a little colder for areas that see the fewest clouds. Patchy/widespread frost will be possible with lows dipping into the upper 20s to mid 30s.

The cooler and dry weather will continue on Sunday. A few showers are possible over the St Lawrence Valley into the western Adirondacks as flow turns more westerly/southwesterly ahead of the approaching upper low, but any rain will be light given dry air in place. Highs will be similar to today, mainly in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Clouds will increase late in the day and then overnight as a warm front begins to lift northward toward the region. Warm air advection precipitation will spread from south to north after midnight Sunday night. The increasing cloud cover will help keep temperatures warm enough for the precipitation to fall as rain, though the highest elevations will see mostly snow with perhaps an inch of accumulation or so above 3000 ft by daybreak Monday. Can't rule out a bit of rain/snow mix in the higher terrain of the Northeast Kingdom either, but no accumulation is expected. Overnight temperatures will range from the lower 30s in the Northeast Kingdom to the lower 40s in the wider valleys.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. As of 321 PM EDT Saturday . A warm front will be lifting north through the region Monday morning with light rainfall overspreading the North Country from south to north. The 850 mb theta-e packing seems marginal with the frontal boundary which should limit convergence and lead to a light steady rainfall vs any type of convective enhancement. Much of the North Country will be underneath a "junky" warm sector during the afternoon hours on Monday with several rounds of light rainfall falling from a low stratus deck. It won't be until late Monday night into Tuesday morning that we see another solid round of rainfall begin to develop across the region. This round of rainfall looks to be more prolific as southeast to easterly flow in the low to mid- levels should advect some Atlantic moisture into the region and a developing upper level low pressure system tracks across the region.

During the overnight hours on Monday, a negatively tilted upper level trough will approach the North Country from the west. A weak surface low is expected to develop near Long Island Tuesday morning with a triple point low developing east of Benchmark. The biggest question is how long the surface low will survive near Long Island as all indication points to the triple point low becoming the main low pressure feature by late Tuesday. This will have a sizable impact to rainfall and winds across the region. Rainfall will overspread the region Tuesday morning but we will have to wait and see if we can be in the sweet spot to see some frontogenetic enhanced rainfall on the northwest side of the low pressure system. It is interesting to see how the evolution of this system resembles that of a Nor'easter but still shows subtle differences within the vertical column. Rainfall amounts will range from about 0.75 to 1.25 inches with the rainfall from Monday and Tuesday with higher amounts possible should we enter the sweet spot for a brief period on Tuesday. We will see rainfall taper off after midnight on Tuesday as the upper level trough amplifies further south and we see significant dry air stream into the region from a Canadian continental airmass.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 321 PM EDT Saturday . All signs currently point to PoPs dwindling throughout the day on Wednesday with dry weather in store for Thursday. We aren't expecting any significant rainfall like we may see on Tuesday but could see some showers produce up to a quarter of an inch of rain across eastern Vermont throughout the day. A brief extension of surface high pressure centered near James Bay should bring us a dry day on Thursday and Friday but this will be short lived as another amplified upper level trough will bring increasing rain chances increase Saturday.

The potential for a strong storm system will exist on Saturday and Sunday with a strong upper level trough and upper level low tracking across the Ohio Valley. There is a lot of uncertainty to how this system will evolve with some models hinting at rapid cyclogenesis off the east coast (looking at you 00Z ECMWF) while others depict a weaker feature tracking across Pennsylvania and New York. There will be a high likelihood of rainfall late Friday into Sunday given the low tracks on all deterministic guidance at this time with the potential for moderate to heavy rainfall on Saturday. There is just too much model disagreement to even try to mention rainfall totals or the potential for strong downslope winds (it's possible) at this time. Regardless, next weekend is shaping up to be less than ideal for outdoor activities and we will be watching this system closely over the next several days to see what impacts may be seen across the North Country.

AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Through 18Z Sunday . Mainly VFR to prevail through the TAF period, with local MVFR ceilings to persist through 00z Sun at KEFK and KSLK. Otherwise, scattered to broken cloud deck 3500-5000 ft will be the rule through the forecast period with no restrictions to visibility expected. Winds will remain light and variable, mainly out of the north to northwest this afternoon, before switching to more east/southeast after 14z Sun.

Outlook .

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely RA. Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Likely RA. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. VT . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . Hastings NEAR TERM . Hastings SHORT TERM . Clay LONG TERM . Clay AVIATION . Hastings


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rutland-Southern Vermont Regional Airport, VT8 mi24 minNNW 310.00 miMostly Cloudy47°F33°F59%1013.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRUT

Wind History from RUT (wind in knots)
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SW6W5NW6N6N60N3NE3N3N4000003N3N503NW6NW5N3
1 day agoS4S60SE5SE9SE6E11E7SE8S6S3SE50E4S6SW9
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2 days agoSW3S4SE300NW4S3SE5S4E5SE6E7E8SE7E8SE7SE7E3E3E30N7W40

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
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Sat -- 02:07 AM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:37 AM EDT     4.13 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:10 PM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:54 PM EDT     5.14 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
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Sat -- 01:57 AM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:29 AM EDT     4.13 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:00 PM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:46 PM EDT     5.14 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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