Thursday, October21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Altmar, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 6:14PM Thursday October 21, 2021 5:08 PM EDT (21:08 UTC) Moonrise 5:53PMMoonset 7:16AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:202110212115;;035944 Fzus51 Kbuf 211446 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 1046 Am Edt Thu Oct 21 2021 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-212115- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1046 Am Edt Thu Oct 21 2021
Rest of today..South winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers late this morning. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms late. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest and increasing to 15 to 25 knots. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely overnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Friday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the morning. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Friday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east. A chance of showers Monday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 64 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Altmar, NY
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location: 43.43, -76     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 212051 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 451 PM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021

SYNOPSIS. Showers and embedded thunderstorms will move across the area through early tonight, as a cold front makes it way through the region. Much cooler weather will follow through the weekend along with some spotty showers especially closer to the lakes.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/. Limited instability but fairly strong wind shear with 700 mb winds increasing to 40 kts across the Western Southern Tier. This suggests a risk for organized convection with strong to damaging winds. Radar trends and consensus of mesoscale guidance (HRRR for example) support moderate to high confidence in timing for the severe weather threat. The line to watch is moving across eastern Ohio at 445 p.m. and this will continue to progress eastward through this evening. This line will move across Western New York between 6 p.m. and 10 p.m. with the greatest (but still limited) instability in our forecast area close to the PA border where SPC highlights a marginal risk for severe weather.

Cleveland has issued several tornado warnings on this line, and the tornado threat will have to be monitored. However, the greatest instability and shear is to our south and west so the tornado risk for our area is lower, but non-zero.

Behind the front, notably cooler air and some gustier surface winds of 25 to 35 mph will develop tonight. Incoming cooler air aloft could generate a minor lake/upslope response east of the lakes.

Friday continues to look like a much cooler day with temperatures just getting into the 50s, with higher terrain staying in the 40s. Plenty of cloud cover with some spotty northwest flow lake showers possible.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. The region will remain under the influence of an upper level trough Friday night through Saturday. Cool with mostly dry conditions likely Friday night. There could be a few lake effect showers southeast of Lake Ontario overnight. A shortwave trough with a strengthening jet will approach western NY Saturday. A cold front will move across Lake Erie through the day with lake enhanced rain showers developing with it. There will be a cold airmass ahead and behind the cold front that moves through the region. The combination of moisture and lift with the front and lake instability will get lake effect going. Showers will move into far western NY by Saturday afternoon, diminishing as they move inland towards the Finger Lakes. Lake effect showers will slowly diminish Saturday night as drier air and subsidence moves into the region. A similar evolution will take place across Lake Ontario Saturday night into Sunday morning with lake enhanced rain showers developing over the Lake and moving into the North Country by early Sunday morning. Rain showers will slowly diminish through the day.

Warm air advection moves into the region later Sunday as the next system approaches. Guidance is not in agreement with the placement and timing of a warm front which could bring a soaking rain to parts of the region. The best chance would be across areas south of Interstate 90 in western NY but it may stay south of the region too. If the North Country remains dry with little cloud cover, it could be a cold night for them with temperatures falling below freezing.

Cool this weekend with highs in the low to mid 50s Saturday and Sunday. Low temperatures will fall to the mid 30s to low 40s. Some areas may get lower temperatures if calm and clear conditions move into the region.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Zonal flow aloft Monday will give way to an upper level low over the upper Mid West. This low will open up into an open wave by Monday evening before sliding east-southeast across Pennsylvania Tuesday. Said upper level low/trough will support a surface low to cross the Ohio River Valley and Pennsylvania Monday through Tuesday. Depending on the track of the surface low, the northern extent of rain associated with the low will cross the southern portions of the area Monday and Tuesday, with the best chances lying south of I-90 and possibly south of the New York/Pennsylvania border.

Upper level ridging will support a surface high over Canada that will spread south across the region, this will support a brief interlude in active weather Wednesday.

Then, a strong negatively tilted trough across the upper Plains Wednesday will cross the upper Great Lakes for the later half of the work week, which will push a surface low and front across the region. Therefore, expect increasing chances for rain showers starting late Wednesday night into Thursday.

Otherwise, temperatures will gradually warm throughout next week with highs starting off in the low to mid 50s and warming to the upper 50s to low 60s by Thursday. Expect a similar warming trend with the lows. Lows will range in the upper 30s across the higher terrain to the low 40s at the start of the week to a range of 40s and possibly a few low 50s by the end of the period.

AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Line of mainly moderate showers will move west to east across the area through early evening.

Second line of what should be more robust convection will enter far western New York with the surface cold front around 22/23z and exit eastern areas around 04z. This is general timing supported by the 16/17z HRRR runs. Better chance to see some thunderstorms during this time frame with the potential for isolated storms with gusty winds.

MVFR/IFR cigs will develop behind the front later tonight with the the potential for some shower development east of the lakes as a cooling westerly flow develops. The lowest cigs should be at the elevated airfields across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region.

MVFR/IFR cigs should gradually improve Friday with some spotty showers mainly confined to areas to the lee of the lakes.

Outlook .

Saturday and Sunday . VFR/MVFR with a chance of mainly lake response showers. Monday and Tuesday . VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.

MARINE. Strengthening winds on the lower Great Lakes the next 24 hours. Small craft advisories are in place for both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario as outlined below. There's also a risk thunderstorms will produce gusty winds along a frontal boundary.

Southwesterlies will pick up ahead of an approaching cold front into this evening. These will be followed by fresh to occasionally strong west to northwest winds behind the cold frontal passage tonight.

Lighter winds will develop later Friday and Saturday as high pressure builds in.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Friday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Friday for LOZ030. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Friday for LOZ043-044. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Friday for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to noon EDT Friday for LOZ045.



SYNOPSIS . RSH/TMA NEAR TERM . Apffel/TMA SHORT TERM . HSK LONG TERM . EAJ AVIATION . Apffel/TMA MARINE . TMA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 27 mi51 min S 11G15 68°F 1007.5 hPa51°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 85 mi69 min SSE 9.9G13 64°F 1007.5 hPa (-3.7)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 87 mi51 min 65°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY21 mi75 minSSW 11 G 1810.00 miFair69°F52°F55%1008 hPa
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY22 mi75 minSW 1310.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F50°F44%1008.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFZY

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7SW5SW5W7W5SW3S3S5S50003S4S4SE4S5S4S55S7S8S13SW11
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1 day agoW12
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W8SW4W6W6W10W16
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W11W9W10W11
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2 days agoN9NW8NW5000NW3NW6NW7NW5W4W3NW5NW6W6SW3SW6W6W10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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