Sunrise 6:25 AM   Sunset 8:42 PM Moonrise 2:53 AM   Moonset 1:03 PM

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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 359 Am Edt Thu May 2 2024
Today - North winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the northeast late in the morning, then increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Tonight - East winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Friday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and early afternoon, then veering to the west early in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less. Friday night - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.

LHZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 021109 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 709 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures continue through the next 7+ days.

- Showers and a few thunderstorms expected tonight with greater coverage and intensity Friday afternoon, although severe thunderstorms are not expected at this time.

- Low confidence forecast in place through the weekend regarding additional showers, then clearing high pressure arrives Sunday night into Monday.

- A large low pressure system lifts into the High Plains Tuesday and Wednesday lending renewed storm chances, locally.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will prevail through this afternoon and evening.
There is an area of low clouds is oozing southward into northern lower Michigan. Will keep an eye on this given the northerly flow this morning, but expect the veering flow to the southeast should keep much of this from reaching KMBS. Otherwise, mainly an increase in mid to high clouds this evening. Some uncertainty in regards to timing of precipitation tonight, but will introduce PROB30 groups for showers tonight. A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible, but confidence is too low to add in at this time. Refinements in SHRA timing will come with upcoming forecasts. Winds settle out of the southeast tonight at 5-10 knots.

For DTW/D21 Convection...Low potential for thunderstorms late tonight. Better chance for thunderstorms will come tomorrow afternoon.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for thunderstorms tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 424 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

DISCUSSION...

Morning MSAS MSLP data shows a broadening region of high pressure across the Upper Midwest while GOES vapor imagery reveals a well formed circulation along the central Ontario/Quebec border. Lower Michigan will remain positioned between these two systems, at least through the morning hours. Given the more diffuse pressure gradient, weaker winds eventually veer toward the northeast, before taking on a southeasterly trajectory this afternoon as the ridge migrates northeastward and breaks down. Today's flow scheme offers more seasonable conditions attributed to the advection of cooler lake- modified air. The coldest readings will be found immediately downwind of the shorelines where temperatures peak in the 60s. Highs moderate in the low-mid 70F range across the rest of the forecast area with southwest extent.

Inbound shortwave troughing tilts negatively and tracks into the Upper Midwest today with an active LLJ. Latest NWP solutions have fallen into better agreement regarding dry PoPs for most of Southeast Michigan during the daylight period. More formidable ambient dryness provided by the neighboring anticyclonic gyre is now reflected in forecast soundings, marked by a higher temperature through the warm nose preceding the surface front and better column uniformity of dry southwest flow. PWATs continue to trend lower as a result. Local probabilistic data lends confidence that any showers that could develop prior to 00Z should remain along the western fringe of the forecast area. Did adjust PoPs to restrict Slight Chance mentions west of US-23. Should note that the 02.12Z FV3 and 02.04Z HRRR are the two CAM outliers since both suggest showers developing earlier and surviving past the demarcated PoP boundary.
Chance for showers and some sub-severe storms increases from west to east overnight. Lack of instability limits the coverage of any stronger storms.

Showers will be on-going Friday morning as dewpoints creep up with the arrival of the surface warm front arrives. There are still points of uncertainty wrt the triple point location midday which affects coverage and strength of convective activity. Regardless, about 250-750 J/kg of MLCAPE should build as the cold/occluded front works in with some indications of a brief window for SBCAPE development. This would mainly induce a more robust flare-up during the afternoon/evening period, but a weakening trend in shear parameters limit severity. In spite of cloud cover, temperatures should still top out in the upper 70s for most areas. Most of the convective activity should depart into Ontario by midnight, but low- level omega signal indicates some lingering ascent and shower activity with moist easterly feed.

Low level moisture remains trapped beneath an inversion with weak gradient wind Saturday. This supports continued stratus and some sprinkles with perturbed mid-level flow. The abnormal warmth persists through the weekend while an upper level trough approaches Sunday warranting continued low-end PoPs. This pushes a cold front into the region before it stalls just south of the state line Sunday night. High pressure quickly crosses the Great Lakes Monday offering the first truly dry day before the low tracks into the High Plains Tuesday and Wednesday. The aforementioned front then lifts northward as a warm front lending renewed rain/storm chances midweek with little evidence of any significant cool-down.

MARINE...

Modest wind speed from the northwest expected through early today as high pressure builds into the region. Winds establish an easterly component late today as the high exits the region. A low pressure system is forecast to track across the northern great lakes Friday.
This will draw a cold front through lower Michigan, bringing increasing potential for showers and thunderstorms particularly during the afternoon and evening hours. Winds holding from the southeast at less than 20 knots in advance of this front Friday.

HYDROLOGY...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms arrive tonight with varying degrees of coverage through Friday. A cold front moves through Lower Michigan Friday afternoon/evening which may produce a few robust thunderstorms containing heavier downpours. Some areas could see in excess of a half inch of rainfall by Friday night. No major flood concerns are expected at this time.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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