Thursday, September23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Auburn, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:23AMSunset 7:32PM Thursday September 23, 2021 11:26 PM EDT (03:26 UTC) Moonrise 7:59PMMoonset 8:58AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 1001 Pm Edt Thu Sep 23 2021
Rest of tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Light showers. A chance of drizzle after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy in the morning then clearing. A chance of drizzle in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear in the evening, then light showers after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the late evening and overnight.
Saturday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly cloudy in the morning then clearing. A chance of light showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:202109240915;;081671 FZUS53 KDTX 240201 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1001 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-240915-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Auburn, MI
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location: 43.58, -84     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 232318 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 718 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

AVIATION.

The low pressure system centered over the Thumb region accelerates northward during the evening. It takes the heavier rain with it and allows improved visibility and sky condition to move in from the west. Some patches light rain or drizzle linger for a few hours toward midnight but then dry weather gains traction followed by ceiling improvement beginning closer to DTW by sunrise and working northward toward mbS during the morning. Ceiling lingering in IFR mainly north of PTK follows a steady trend of improvement into MVFR during the night and then into VFR at all locations by mid morning which then continues through afternoon into Friday evening. Moderate NW wind gradually backs toward the SW as the next low pressure system moves into the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes by Friday evening.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

* High for ceiling 5000 feet or less through 12z Friday.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 345 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

DISCUSSION .

NEAR TERM / REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

As of 345 PM EDT . Stacked low pressure system that brought 2-6 inches of rain to the region since Tuesday continues to slowly lift northward this afternoon, with latest observations indicating the surface low center invof of the eastern Thumb. Rather impressive and expansive circulation noted on both water vapor and visible satellite imagery with the occlusion process underway with the broad upper-level circulation taking up virtually the entire Great Lakes region.

Dank and dreary afternoon continues across southeast Michigan with continued low stratus enveloping the region with cool 50s temperatures and brisk at times winds. Radar coverage of light rain showers/drizzle has blossomed over the past couple of hours in response to enhanced trowal forcing, and will continue through the evening commute before the best forcing starts lifting northward along with the parent low pressure center.

Heading into tonight, shower coverage will taper off to more of a light drizzle/mist from south to north as the low slowly lifts further northward through the Lake Huron basin. Lingering drizzle and perhaps a few light showers will still be prevalent through midnight for areas along and north of the I-69 corridor, and especially across the northern Thumb where Lake Huron/Saginaw Bay enhancement may lead to some surprise rain totals approaching a half of an inch. For remaining areas across southeast Michigan for the remainder of this event, rainfall totals will generally be under a quarter of an inch, with localized amounts up to a half of an inch.

Cloud cover will start to scour out across far southwestern areas near the Ohio/Indiana border towards sunrise, limiting the low temperature potential despite the upper low being overhead. Thus, lows will fall into the mid/upper 40s, coldest south of the I-94 corridor where the best potential for clouds clearing out late tonight will be.

SHORT TERM / FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

Amplified and energetic upper-level pattern will remain in place across the Great Lakes through the first half of the weekend as the aforementioned upper low opens up and becomes absorbed into the polar jet. Brief shortwave ridging will attempt to build into the central Great Lakes for Friday, but will end up being more of a quasi-zonal flow. Regardless, dry weather returns to round out the work week. Another potent and digging northern stream trough approaching from the northern Plains/Manitoba will act to strengthen a cold front tracking eastward towards the western Great Lakes during the day Friday. The mass response downstream coupled with breezy west southwest return flow around broad high pressure across the Tennessee Valley will aid in a return to near average temperatures around 70 degrees for most areas under mostly sunny skies.

Model guidance is in fairly good agreement with the cold front tracking east across lower Michigan late Friday night through midday Saturday. There still remains some disagreement with respect to the strength of the frontal forcing and QPF that can be squeezed out as a result, but rather impressive Canadian PV being pulled down into the upper Midwest would lend the forecast towards a more widespread shower coverage with the frontal passage. Not expecting a deluge of rainfall with the frontal passage, but a solid quarter of an inch of rainfall roughly beginning after midnight Friday night and persisting through mid-Saturday afternoon looks pretty reasonable. Despite the aforementioned favorable forcing associated with the front, the front itself will be gradually washing out with time, especially with respect to the thermal component as the temperature response behind the front will be negligible, although the dewpoint response will be fairly notable as a dry airmass settles in behind the passage. Temperatures Saturday reach into the 60s despite the rain and cloud-cooled air.

LONG TERM / SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Outside of a few sprinkles mainly across the Thumb for Sunday as the upper-level trough axis swings through, the narrative for the second half of the weekend through the middle of next week will be characterized by pleasant temperatures and dry weather as expansive Canadian high pressure settles over the Great Lakes. High temperatures during this time will generally range from the upper 60s to mid 70s with lows in the 50s, around average for late September.

MARINE .

Resident low pressure system is exiting through the Thumb, then heads northeast through central Lake Huron overnight brining a noted reduction in wind strength. Residual wave energy remains along the southern Huron nearshores and Outer Bay until this evening, thus will continue the Small Craft Advisory. Added western Lake Erie to the advisory as a 950-875 mb wave mixes down gusts to 24 knots throughout the evening. Modest W/SW winds are expected behind the low through much of the weekend. The strongest winds likely occur Friday night and may warrant another round of Small Craft Advisories for all nearshore zones with the next dynamic low-level jet. Gales are not expected at this time as peak speeds remain below 30 knots across the open waters. Gusts then hold AOB 20 knots by Saturday afternoon and into early next week.

HYDROLOGY .

Additional light rain showers and drizzle will persist through the evening hours as low pressure lifts slowly northward into the Lake Huron basin. Additional rainfall amounts will generally remain under a quarter of an inch, with locally higher amounts closer to a half of an inch possible. A cold front will then track east across the region late Friday night through Saturday bringing an additional widespread quarter of an inch of rainfall to the region.

River flooding will continue into the weekend along the Huron River near Hamburg and Saginaw Rivers, with improvements below flood expected along the Clinton River near Clinton Township and Rouge River at Detroit later today or Friday. Remaining area rivers will continue to run high before slowly receding this weekend into early next week from the recent rainfall.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

MI . NONE.

Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421- 441>443.

Lake St Clair . NONE.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie . Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ444.



AVIATION . BT DISCUSSION . IRL MARINE . KK HYDROLOGY . IRL

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 22 mi27 min WNW 11 G 14 52°F 1007.5 hPa (+2.1)
45163 35 mi47 min NW 18 G 19 53°F 1007.9 hPa
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 39 mi47 min WNW 21 G 25 51°F 1007.1 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 55 mi47 min WNW 8.9 G 15 52°F 1006.8 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Last
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NE35
G43
NE37
NE36
NE36
NE30
G38
NE31
G38
NE33
NE27
G36
NE26
E20
E20
SE18
SE17
G21
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G22
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SE16
G20
SE16
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S9
G12
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SW4
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N17
N18
G22
N21
N18
G22
N23
N22
N20
NE22
N21
N24
G31
N22
G27
N24
N27
N28
G35
N29
NE27
G35
N31
N31
G38
N33
G41
N34
G43
N38
NE40
NE38
G47
NE36
2 days
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S19
G25
S8
G11
S10
G15
S11
G18
S11
G14
S10
G14
S11
G16
S13
G18
S19
G26
S15
G21
S17
G21
S14
G21
SW15
G21
SW18
G23
SW15
G24
SW14
G17
SW9
G15
SW7
G12
NW4
G8
NW9
G13
N14
G17
N14
G17
N12
G15
N17

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MBS International Airport, MI5 mi34 minW 910.00 miLight Rain50°F48°F93%1009.3 hPa
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI13 mi32 minW 710.00 miDrizzle49°F49°F98%1008.8 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI15 mi32 minW 510.00 miRain49°F49°F97%1008.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMBS

Wind History from MBS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN20
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N17N18N17
G25
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NW15NW14NW14NW15NW15
G21
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1 day agoN11N10N10N12N9N16
G21
NE14N13N18
G25
N16N17
G22
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G28
N14
G23
N17N17
G23
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G26
N13
G22
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G24
N20
G29
N17
G30
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G25
N18N18
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2 days agoS11
G20
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S13S12
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G21
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G19
S13
G19
SW7S7S9NW12
G17
W11NW10NW9N6N6N10N7N8N10

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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