Sunrise 5:36 AM   Sunset 7:59 PM Moonrise 3:56 AM   Moonset 3:56 PM

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LMZ643 Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi- 305 Pm Cdt Sat May 4 2024
.dense fog advisory in effect until 7 pm cdt this evening - .
Through early evening - South wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Areas of dense fog. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Tonight - Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots late in the evening, then veering northwest with gusts to around 20 knots after midnight becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots early in the morning. Patchy fog through the night. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms through around midnight. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Sunday - Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots veering north late in the morning, then becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots early in the afternoon veering southeast late in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning. Waves around 1 foot. Sunday night - Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots veering south late in the evening, then becoming southwest after midnight backing east early in the morning. Mostly clear. Waves around 1 foot. Monday - East wind 5 to 10 knots rising to 10 to 15 knots late in the morning, then becoming east 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot building to 2 to 4 feet late in the afternoon.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 042005 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 305 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- A line of showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and evening bringing brief heavy downpours. There may be a few strong thunderstorms within the line capable of producing hail and gusty winds for areas along and east of HWY-151 to around I-41.

- Quiet and dry weather expected for Sunday into early next week.

- Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected during the middle portions of next week.

SHORT TERM
Issued 302 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Tonight through Sunday night:

The initial morning line of showers have diminished and pockets of clear are resulting in temps warming into the low to mid 70s across much of the area. Clouds are looking a bit more agitated on the latest visible/RGB satellite imagery ahead of the cold front which looks to strewn through far southwestern WI. Convective initiation is starting with a cell deepen over Jo Davies County just south of the WI/IL border. Expect this activity to develop over the next few hours as the cold front gradually slides east.

The environment ahead of the front has warmed and moisten with dewpoints in the mid 50s to mid 60s allowing SBCAPE to build to around a 1000-1500 J/kg this afternoon along the WI/IL border with the 500 J/kg contour extending up into the upper Fox River Valley. Pair the instability with marginal deep layer shear values around 35- 40kt and looks to be enough for storms to develop along the cold front through the afternoon. Some stronger thunderstorms will be possible with this activity given the overachieving environment. Thinking any hail threat will be over the next couple of hours as storms begin to develop before the merging into a line. While the effective bulk shear is looking a bit less parallel at this time, the 0-3 km bulk shear still remains along a similar orientation as the cold front favoring a linear storm mode. However, with the inverted-V on model soundings and steep low-level lapse around +7.5 C/km, thing the threat for gusty to damaging winds will increase through the evening as the line matures. Again would not be surprised to see an embedded segment of the line to grow upscale and become severe especially along the WI/IL where an early MCV from northeastern MO lifts into northern IL. Again may see hail up to around an inch early on, but more of a damaging wind threat through the evening. While it is not out of the realm of possibility given some remnant outflows and potential lake breeze interaction increasing low-level (0-1km) shear, cannot rule out a brief spinup along the line, especially with any bowing/surges. But given more parallel shear, chances remain very low.

Nevertheless, the potential for strong storms along with a brief downpour will continue now through the evening mainly pushing east and over the lake between 01-03z. The main area of concern looks to still be a slice from just west of Monroe up through Green Lake and Fond du Lac County down through Burlington/Lake Geneva/Twin Lakes.
Still think chances will be limited along the lakefront given the persistent onshore flow, more stable environment, and later arrival.

Otherwise, the cold front pushes through this evening bringing drier airmass and quickly diminishing precip chances. Clouds may linger a bit longer as well possibly through daybreak Sunday. Then surface high pressure is progged to build across the area for Sunday bringing light and variable winds. Still looking to see temps warm into the 60s and given the light flow, a lake breeze may develop and push inland. Thus temps will be cooler by the lake for Sunday. High pressure influence will linger through Sunday night bringing a crisp conditions as mostly clear skies and light winds allow temps to drop. While temps look to only fall into the low 40s, but cannot rule out a few inland locations to fall into the upper 30s with a potential for some frost development.

Wagner

LONG TERM
Issued 302 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Monday through Saturday:

Low pressure occluding over the Northern Plains will be our next weather maker for southern WI Monday night through Thursday.
Increasing southeast winds can be expected Monday, along with increasing high clouds. Showers and thunderstorms are expected along the warm front that will be slowly lifting east-northeast into southern WI Monday night. The trend for the arrival time of precip is slower/later, which is no surprise given the nature of upper lows.

With this warm front, elevated instability looks to be weak/modest (around 750 j/kg) as it lifts across southern WI Tue morning. Mid level forcing of vorticity advection and low level jet will be weakening during this time. Hail would be possible in any stronger storms. Tuesday afternoon looks like a drier, reload period, although there are plenty of timing differences between the models this far out. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is possible over south central and southeast WI, probably south of I-94, and this is due to another lobe of vorticity advection rotating through and the potential for the surface warm front to sneak north of the WI/IL border. The lake breeze may help (initiate convection) or hinder (shunt the warm front to the south) in southeast WI, so we will need to keep an eye on this.

Wednesday is looking fairly dry and warm at this time. The upper low will start to move into MN Wed night. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is possible over southern WI Wed nt into Thu. We will be stuck under a large upper trough through Saturday and potentially longer. Expect chances of showers and storms through this period.

Cronce

AVIATION
Issued 302 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

A line of showers and few thunderstorms will continue to develop across southwestern WI through the afternoon and trek east along the cold front through the evening. This line looks to bring brief, heavy downpours, small hail, and gusty winds along with lower visibility and ceilings. The deteriorating conditions will be limited to a narrow 2-4 hr window as the line tracks over the lake by 01-03z. Lower ceilings may linger a bit longer overnight and possibly into early Sunday morning, but drier conditions are expected to build in with high pressure for Sunday behind the cold front.

Otherwise, expect south-southeasterly winds through the afternoon before turning west-northwest by tonight behind the cold frontal passage. Light and variable winds along with prevailing VFR conditions expected for Sunday as the high works across the area.
May see a winds pick up and shift more easterly Sunday afternoon as a lake breeze is progged to develop and push inland.

Wagner

MARINE
Issued 302 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Some marine dense fog looks to linger through the afternoon along the western open waters and western nearshores given the warm, moist air over the cooler lake.

Otherwise a broad area of low pressure will continue to work its way eastward from WI and over the Lake tonight. This will drag a cold front across the lake overnight and shift winds from the east- southeast to the west-northwest. Will see scattered showers and thunderstorms with some gusty winds and small hail possible along the front. But it will be drier by Sunday morning as high pressure begins to build into the western Great Lakes region. Expect lighter and more variable winds for Sunday into Monday as the high pressure works its way across the region. Winds then begin to shift out of the east-southeast Monday afternoon and evening as another low pressure develops and deepens over the northern Plains. Winds will pivot between southeasterly and southwesterly through mid- week, prior to turning out of the north and northwest on Thursday and Friday as another low pressure moves east of the open waters.
Periods of showers and thunderstorms are forecast from early to mid week, with conditions drying out by the end of the week and beginning of next weekend.

Wagner

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM
Dense Fog Advisory
LMZ080-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567- LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675- LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 until 7 PM Saturday.

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