Tuesday, December7, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cedar Grove, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 4:15PM Tuesday December 7, 2021 7:20 PM CST (01:20 UTC) Moonrise 11:52AMMoonset 8:57PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ643 Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi- 706 Pm Cst Tue Dec 7 2021
Tonight..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Chance of snow in the evening. Slight chance of snow in the late evening and overnight. Waves around 1 foot.
Wednesday..Northwest wind 5 to 15 knots veering north 10 to 15 knots late in the morning, then backing northwest in the afternoon. Partly Sunny in the morning then clearing. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday night..North wind 5 to 10 knots veering southeast late in the evening, then veering south 5 to 15 knots after midnight rising to 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy through around midnight then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot building to 2 to 4 feet early in the morning.
Thursday..South wind 15 to 25 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 knots. Chance of snow showers in the morning. Chance of showers through the day. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 6 to 8 feet. A small craft advisory may be needed. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ643 Expires:202112080500;;082474 FZUS53 KMKX 080106 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 706 PM CST Tue Dec 7 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ643-080500-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cedar Grove, WI
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location: 43.58, -87.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 072038 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 238 PM CST Tue Dec 7 2021

SHORT TERM. (Issued 238 PM CST Tue Dec 7 2021)

Tonight through Wednesday night:

Light snow will continue to move through the area this afternoon associated with the positive vorticity advection moving across the area. Drier air will then push in for this evening but the lift will focus towards central Wisconsin with the weakening 850mb jet and warm air advection so light snow is expected to continue towards Marquette, Green Lake, Fond du Lac, and Sheboygan counties. Some areas could see a dusting to around a half an inch.

We'll still be in a cold air mass and with clouds lingering in the dendritic growth zone flurries will remain possible through the overnight hours into Wednesday morning before the front moves through. In the place of an upper level trough exiting the area we'll move into northwest flow and then under the ridge by Wednesday evening. Temperatures will be a little warmer Wednesday with highs in the mid 20s to low 30s. Southerly winds that develop late Wednesday night will help temperatures increase into Thursday morning after the briefly fall into the upper teens to low 20s.

RAH

LONG TERM. (Issued 238 PM CST Tue Dec 7 2021)

Thursday through Tuesday:

Overall, we will see an active end to the work week and start to the weekend with chances for snow and a wintry mix in the forecast, then the storm track moves well north of the area as upper-level ridging builds across the central CONUS early next week.

On Thursday, QG forcing increases ahead of a shortwave lifting across the area. This will favor the development of light snow as the main wave arrives during the morning and afternoon hours. The majority of the models bring the swath of precipitation through south-central and east-central Wisconsin, mainly north of I-94. Do expect precipitation to fall mostly in the form of snow; however, soundings do indicate a wintry mix of sleet/freezing drizzle may be possible on the back edge of the band of snow as cloud ice thins and shallow moisture remain 3-4kft deep. Snow accumulations look to remain less than 1 inch. Temperatures will be critical during the afternoon hours as to whether we see rain mix in with snow as it ends near Lake Michigan.

Friday through Friday night, we are keeping a close eye on a developing Panhandle low, which is expected to track northeast across northern Illinois and southern Lake Michigan. Latest deterministic and ensemble data are showing a clear shift to the south, which does look to put northwest portions of the area under better chances for seeing accumulating snow. Will need to keep an eye on these trends, as additional shifts to the south would certainly change the going forecast. GEFS/EPS show an increased potential for 3 inches of snow for areas northwest of Madison and west of Fond du Lac. While the deterministic runs of the GFS/ECMWF are quite aggressive with the QPF within the banded area of snow, it should be noted that the GEFS/EPS controls far exceed the ensemble mean. Thus it is possible the deterministic and ensemble controls are running a bit hot. Something to keep an eye on as we get closer. If the current track of the 850mb low holds, there will be a p-type transition zone draped southwest to northeast across the area. Within this transition zone, surface temperatures and the depth of the cold air near the surface will be critical for p-types, a few soundings are hinting at the potential for a mix of freezing rain and sleet. Across far southern, southeast, and area near the lakeshore, current guidance shows mild enough surface air that precipitaion would remain mostly rain. By Saturday, the system lifts northeast across the region and quickly exits over lower Michigan and Lake Huron as it deepens. This would favor much of the area seeing the wrap around/deformation snow Saturday morning. Behind the system, gusty north to northwest winds are also expected.

Cooler air lingers across the region behind the departing system for Sunday, then warm air advection quickly increases across the central CONUS early next week. This will result in upper-level ridging dominating the weather pattern through the middle of next week, leading to a dry stretch and a warming trend. Think the blend is under doing the magnitude of warming for early next week, so expect forecast highs to be refined as we get closer.

Anderson

AVIATION. (Issued 238 PM CST Tue Dec 7 2021)

Light snow and flurries are ongoing across the area. Ceilings and visibilities may drop to MVFR values at times. This evening light snow will focus more along and north of a DLL-SBM line before pushing northeast of the area by 3Z. There could be some lingering flurries overnight into Wednesday morning before the front passes with southerly winds becoming northwesterly. VFR ceilings will increase and gradually clear throughout Wednesday morning.

RAH

MARINE. (Issued 238 PM CST Tue Dec 7 2021)

Winds look to remain below 20 kts through Wednesday night, then periods of stronger winds look to develop over Lake Michigan Thursday through Saturday night. First, an uptick of south winds is expected ahead of a weak wave lifting across the region Thursday. These south winds look to increase to around 25-30kt, and may briefly approach gales. Small craft conditions in the nearshore look to return during this period of stronger south winds. Winds then briefly relax Thursday night into Friday morning.

Attention then turns to a deepening surface low progged to track northeast across the western Great Lakes Friday through Saturday. It does appear there will be period of gales as the surface low lifts through the region, and northeast winds become north Friday night and northwest on Saturday. As north to northwest winds move down the lake Saturday, small craft conditions look to return again.

Anderson

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 13 mi40 min WSW 5.1G9.9 20°F 1019 hPa
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 14 mi20 min WSW 8G9.9 20°F 1018.5 hPa (-2.7)14°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 40 mi30 min SSW 6G8.9 21°F

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sheboygan County Memorial Airport, WI14 mi27 minSW 610.00 miOvercast19°F13°F77%1018.6 hPa
West Bend Municipal Airport, WI18 mi25 minSSW 410.00 miOvercast18°F12°F79%1016.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSBM

Wind History from SBM (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW11W12W12W11W9W15
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2 days agoW7W6W6NW30N5NE11NE13NE11E7E10E11
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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