Sunrise 5:48 AM   Sunset 8:01 PM Moonrise 1:48 AM   Moonset 11:09 AM

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FXUS63 KMKX 011839 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 139 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances increase late tonight, with a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms through Thursday night/early Friday morning. Isolated strong storms possible, but widespread severe weather is not expected.

- Limited rain chances on Saturday, followed by additional precipitation chances for the early to middle portion of next workweek.

SHORT TERM
Issued 139 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Tonight through Thursday night:

Moisture will begin to increase across the area this evening, north of a warm front and ahead of an amplifying trough across the north central Plains. There is currently an appreciable amount of low and mid level dry air across the area, and this will need to be overcome before rain starts making it down to the surface late tonight or early tomorrow morning. Other than a few sprinkles this evening, think that most places will stay dry until after midnight, with limited PoPs across the eastern half of the area until after 4 AM.

Instability will initially be very limited over the region, suggesting little in the way of thunder potential overnight and into the morning hours tomorrow.

Guidance suggests that we may see a break in the precipitation during the late morning and early afternoon hours tomorrow, in the wake of a lead shortwave that will be lifting into northern Wisconsin and the UP. Not sure we'll see a total break, but at least a decrease in coverage for a few hours seems probable during this timeframe.

PoPs increase again heading into the late afternoon and especially evening hours, as a disorganized area of low pressure and an associated warm front tries to lift into southern Wisconsin. This will pose our best window for severe weather, but the overall threat is limited. IF the warm front makes it into southern Wisconsin, there will be a small wind and tornado threat. If the front stays south (and for anyone north of the front in general), any severe threat will be limited to hail.
Again, the lack of organization with this system and limited instability should mitigate any sort of widespread severe threat.

Temperatures tomorrow will be tricky, with readings highly dependent on frontal placement and precipitation coverage. There will also be a non-diurnal component, with temperatures over the far southern portion of the state either holding steady or rising slightly during the early evening hours.

Precipitation is expected to end from west to east late Thursday night and early Friday, as drier air builds into the area.

Boxell

LONG TERM
Issued 139 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Friday through Wednesday:

Any lingering showers should end by mid morning on Friday, with clearing skies through the day as high pressure moves through the region. Highs will be around 70, with a lake breeze likely by afternoon as winds become light from the north.

Another shortwave will push through Saturday, bringing at least low chances for showers. Precip potential trends have been going down over the last few days, given weak forcing and limited moisture return. High pressure then arrives for Sunday, which is looking to be a very nice day with highs in the 70s and light winds.

Temperatures are favored to remain above average through the middle portion of next week. The overall pattern will remain active, with chances for showers and thunderstorms late Monday and Tuesday, and again mid week.

Boxell

AVIATION
Issued 139 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

West to northwest winds will diminish late this afternoon/early this evening, before turning southeasterly late this evening into the overnight hours. Mid and high level clouds will build in this evening and overnight, with precipitation potential gradually increasing during the overnight hours and into the morning on Thursday. VFR is currently expected to prevail through the morning tomorrow, though pockets of MVFR ceilings and/or vis will be possible in and around more organized areas of showers.

Boxell

MARINE
Issued 139 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Gusty southwest to west winds today will gradually diminish this evening, as high pressure moves into and across the lake. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the nearshore waters through late afternoon.

Winds will then turn easterly and increase on Thursday, as low pressure lifts from Kansas into southwestern Wisconsin. That low will weaken and lift north into Canada on Friday, with high pressure briefly building into the region.

Another area of low pressure will lift into the region on Saturday. A brief period of gusty north winds is expected Sunday morning as the low moves east and high pressure builds in from the west.

Boxell

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM
Small Craft Advisory
LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 5 PM Wednesday.

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