Monday, October18, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Reedsburg, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 6:11PM Monday October 18, 2021 2:55 PM CDT (19:55 UTC) Moonrise 4:46PMMoonset 4:02AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Reedsburg, WI
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Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 181736 AAA AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1236 PM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021

Updated Aviation Section

UPDATE. (Issued 1010 AM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021)

No change to the forecast for today. Extended forecast challenges will be precip chances for Wednesday/Thursday, gale chances Wed nt/Thu, and the frost/freeze potential for the weekend.

Cronce

SHORT TERM. (Issued 355 AM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021)

Today and Tonight:

Another beautiful, sunny fall day is expected to unfold across southern Wisconsin as surface ridging moves across the region. This will favor the development of light south winds across southern Wisconsin, and the development of a lake breeze along the Lake Michigan shoreline. Don't expect the lake breeze to push too far inland, but onshore winds will help keep afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 60s closer to the shoreline. Elsewhere, expect temperatures to warm nicely into the low to mid 70s.

Tonight, expect another clear, but warmer more seasonable night. Winds will become south to southwest overnight, ahead of a surface low ejecting out of the central Rockies. Soundings show enhanced winds just above the surface increase overnight as the periphery of the LLJ pivots towards southern Wisconsin late tonight/early Tuesday morning. The increased turbulence within and above the nocturnal boundary layer will help keep temperatures in the mid 40s, with a very low probability of temperatures falling below 40.

Anderson

LONG TERM. (Issued 355 AM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021)

Tuesday and Tuesday night:

Breezy and mild conditions are expected ahead of the above mentioned approaching surface low. Expect conditions to remain dry, with only an increase in mid and upper-level clouds as the system gets closer.

Wednesday through Thursday night:

The main surface low is progged to track across the region, bringing increased chances for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. There remains uncertainty in the exact track of the surface low, and thus where the more dominant areas of forcing and better precipitation will track. The wind forecast also depends highly on the track of the surface low, and if we see any enhanced south/southwest winds on Wednesday/Wednesday night.

One thing that does look certain is a sharp cool down with gusty north to northwest winds as the main surface low exits the area and moves over lower Michigan on Thursday. With sharp cold air advection arriving, non-diurnal temperatures appear likely, with the potential for some areas to see steady or falling temperatures during the afternoon. Depending on the main track of the surface low and where wrap around/deformation precipitation is occurring, there could be some lingering rain showers around on Thursday as well.

Thursday night, depending on how cloud cover and winds evolve we could be looking at the potential for widespread frost as temperatures fall into the low to mid 30s.

Friday through the weekend:

A slow-moving shortwave rotates down across the Upper Great Lakes and brings a reinforcing shot of cold air advection to the region. This will result in a period of cooler conditions, both during the day and at night. The colder overnight lows, especially Friday night into Saturday morning, will favor the potential for widespread frost yet again. A few of our typically colder locations across central Wisconsin may very well see temperatures fall into the upper 20s early Saturday morning.

As for precipitation chances, there are hints in the GEFS/EPS 24-hr QPF fields for increased precipitation chances for the end of the weekend into early next week. However, there remains a lot of uncertainty in regards to how the upper-air pattern and the slow moving shortwave tracks across the region. Thus did leave the model blended PoPs alone in the extended.

Anderson

AVIATION. (Issued 1236 PM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021)

VFR conditions will prevail under high pressure today through Thursday. Look for increasing south-southwest winds for inland areas this afternoon. A weak lake breeze will fight the southwest winds so there is uncertainty about wind direction along the lakeshore including KMKE.

Cronce

MARINE. (Issued 355 AM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021)

Light winds from the northwest this morning will become westerly today, then become southerly tonight into Tuesday as surface ridging tracks east across Lake Michigan. Winds then become southwesterly Tuesday into Wednesday, ahead of an approaching surface low lifting northeast towards the Great Lakes region.

There remains uncertainty in the wind forecast Wednesday/Wednesday night through the end of the week, as the track, strength, and timing of the incoming surface low will be critical for winds and the resulting wave development. Right now, models are in agreement that the surface low will track across Lake Michigan, with a stronger pressure gradient and enhanced area of N-NW winds wrapping around the backside of the main surface low. The question is whether the surface low and pocket of enhanced winds on the backside of the low track over the north, central, or southern half of the lake.

Anderson

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Baraboo Wisconsin Dells Airport, WI13 mi60 minSSE 510.00 miFair70°F40°F34%1017.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDLL

Wind History from DLL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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