Sunrise 5:53 AM   Sunset 7:57 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 7:37 AM

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FXUS63 KMKX 280929 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 429 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms are possible today, especially this afternoon and evening. An isolated strong to severe storm can't be ruled out. The flash flood threat will remain low but local urban and small stream flooding is more probable.

- Another round of showers and possibly a rumble of thunder Tuesday evening/night. A stronger system with additional showers / thunderstorms Wednesday night through Thursday, possibly continuing into Friday.

- Above normal temps likely Monday through Thursday, cooling off towards normal this weekend.

SHORT TERM
Issued 420 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Today through Monday:

The cold conveyor behind the departed low pressure and the warm sector of an approaching low pressure over the central plains have created a stalled front, the exact position of which remains uncertain going into this afternoon. Some models take it as far north as a Racine to Madison line by this afternoon, while others keep it right on the WI / IL border, or even south of the border for eastern areas (near the refrigerating effect of Lake MI). Our latest temperature forecast places it along a Kenosha to Mineral Point WI line, with daytime highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s north of the boundary and mid 60s south of it.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop near and north of the front today. A few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out, especially along and south of the warm front. HRRR ensemble mean MUCAPE holds around 500 j/kg near the warm front today, possibly surging over 1000 j/kg this afternoon into this evening as the stalled front begins a northward advance as a warm front. The warm front fully crosses the CWA tonight into early Monday morning, allowing one last chance for increased shower / thunderstorm coverage. Storm coverage is expected to decrease into Monday as a dry slot wraps into the low pressure, though some models indicate scattered to isolated redevelopment of showers / thunderstorms with lingering 850mb humidity.

Sheppard

LONG TERM
Issued 420 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Monday night through Saturday:

Dry weather is expected Monday night through Tuesday, as high pressure briefly moves through the area. Southerly winds Tuesday ahead of an approaching low will push temps back into the 70s most places, aside from cooler temps east as winds will likely turn onshore in the afternoon.

A trough will then likely swing through the area Tuesday evening/night, bringing a round of showers to southern Wisconsin.
There may be a few rumbles of thunder as well, given some weak elevated instability.

High pressure will briefly return on Wednesday, with dry weather and mild temps in the 70s once again. A stronger low pressure system is then expected to gradually lift through the region Wednesday night through Thursday, possibly even lingering in the area into Friday per slower models solutions. Rounds of showers are likely (60%+) at times with this system, with some occasional thunder also possible. Models currently are showing the highest chance for thunderstorms on Thursday, as the warm sector pushes into or close to southern Wisconsin. Above normal temps are likely through Thursday, cooling back towards normal by the weekend.

DDV

AVIATION
Issued 420 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

MVFR / Fuel Alt cloud ceilings have increased in coverage over the past few hours. This trend of lowering cloud ceilings (and possibly development of patchy fog) is expected to continue this morning, due to northeast winds advecting a rain-humidified lake-refrigerated airmass off of Lake Michigan. Widespread IFR cloud ceilings become likely later this morning, with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms.

A stalled front just south of the region begins a northward advance as a warm front tonight, causing winds to veer south, eventually southwest on Monday. Another round of showers is expected (possibly with thunder) throughout this period, with shower and storm coverage likely decreasing into Monday. Cloud ceilings gradually lift to VFR throughout Monday.

Sheppard

MARINE
Issued 420 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Low pressure around 29.7 inches drifts northeastward through Quebec early this morning. Its cold front has already crossed two thirds of the lake, and will stall near the southern end of the lake today as the warm front of an approaching low pressure system collides with it. Thus, north to northeast winds are expected across the majority of Lake Michigan today, with the fastest winds (up to 30 kts) in central Lake Michigan. Expecting light and variable winds over the southern third of the lake (near the stalled front) and south winds at the far southern tip of the lake.

Modest east to southeast winds will then develop over all of the lake tonight as the stalled front moves north as a warm front. Brisk east winds, possibly reaching gale force, are expected over the northern tip of the lake late tonight into Monday morning. Breezy south winds will develop over the remainder of the lake on Monday.

Areas of fog may form over the lake today, especially the southern half. Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected between now and Monday.

Sheppard

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM
Small Craft Advisory
LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 PM Monday.

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