Sunrise 6:13 AM   Sunset 9:09 PM Moonrise 4:29 PM   Moonset 3:21 AM

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FXUS65 KBOI 192048 AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 248 PM MDT Sun May 19 2024

SHORT TERM
Tonight through Tuesday night...As one wave exits eastward another wave will push through the region tonight and Monday. This system will support a broad 20-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon across far SE Oregon and much of SW Idaho. The thunderstorm threat remains minimal, 15-20%, but storms that form could bring gusty winds to 40 mph.
Outside of thunderstorms winds will ramp up Monday afternoon, becoming sustained 10-20 mph with gusts of 25-30 mph across a broad area. Tuesday is dry and not as windy in response to a passing shortwave ridge. This break is shortlived as the next low pressure system will push a cold front and precipitation into the area Tuesday night with snow levels around 7kft MSL.
Temperatures will warm slightly each day through Tuesday.

LONG TERM
Wednesday through Sunday...An upper low will track through the Pac NW on Wednesday bringing widespread showers and possible afternoon thunderstorms. A reinforcing cold front will cross the region late Wednesday as the low pushes through Idaho. This frontal passage will cut off much of the precipitation across lower elevations while e-central Oregon and w-central Idaho keep a 30-60% chance of rain and snow through Thursday. With better model agreement on the low track through NE Oregon and central Idaho, QPF amounts have trended lower along the I-84 corridor and areas to the south and west for Wed/Thur. Snow levels of 6-7kft MSL on Wednesday will fall to 4500-5500 feet on Thursday. That said, any notable accumulation will be limited to higher peaks above 6500ft MSL where totals of 3-8 inches are expected through Thursday. The pattern remains active, through the weekend with the next cold low dropping into the Pac NW on Saturday. The current forecast track would again place the focus of heavier precipitation across e-central Oregon and the w-central Idaho mountains.
Winds will remain breezy, increasing each afternoon across open and higher terrain. Temperatures will be below normal through the weekend, with Wednesday and Thursday the coolest days at 10-15 degrees below normal.

AVIATION
VFR. Scattered to broken cumulus field over e-central Oregon and w-central Idaho with scattered showers in mountains through this evening. Mountains obscured in showers.
Snow levels 5-6kft MSL. Surface winds: W to N 10-20 kt, gusts to 20-25 kt. In Magic Valley, W 15-20 kt with gusts to 30 kt, through Mon/03Z. Winds aloft at 10k ft MSL: NW 10-20 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Gusty NW winds through sunset. Prescribed fires in the Boise foothills will continue to bring haze and reduced visibility aloft.

BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...None.
OR...None.

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