Wednesday, January19, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sandy Creek, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:31AMSunset 5:01PM Wednesday January 19, 2022 2:21 AM EST (07:21 UTC) Moonrise 6:39PMMoonset 8:57AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 313 Pm Est Tue Jan 18 2022
Tonight..Northeast winds less than 10 knots becoming south and increasing to 15 to 25 knots after midnight. Snow showers likely after midnight. Snow late. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Wednesday..South winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest to 30 knots. Snow in the morning, then rain and snow showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 5 to 8 feet building to 6 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Wednesday night..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming north. Snow showers likely in the evening, then a chance of snow showers overnight. Waves 6 to 10 feet subsiding to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Thursday..North winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less building to 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots. Snow showers likely. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
LOZ045 Expires:202201190415;;586297 FZUS51 KBUF 182013 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 313 PM EST Tue Jan 18 2022 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ045-190415-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sandy Creek, NY
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location: 43.65, -76.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 190537 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1237 AM EST Wed Jan 19 2022

SYNOPSIS. A little light snow will be possible tonight . as a warm front will cross the region. Higher temperatures will make a brief appearance in the wake of the warm front through early Wednesday morning. Then, a rather dry cold front will move across the region late Wednesday and introduce much colder air to the area. These cold temperatures will last through the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. A warm front push northeast across the region overnight. So far it has only produced a few flurries across Western NY, but as the front reaches the North Country strengthening isentropic upglide and deeper moisture will produce measurable light snow with minor accumulations of around an inch. Outside of this, expect a non- diurnal curve in temperatures tonight as the passage of the warm front will advect in warmer air and cause temperatures to rise above freezing across the lower elevations of western New York.

Wednesday, the surface low associated with the warm frontal passage tonight will track to the north of the region. In its journey, an associated cold front will be dragged across the region Wednesday afternoon and evening. Ahead of the incoming cold front, southwest winds will pick up across the region with up to 35mph gusts possible. Additionally, the southwest winds will further aid warmer air to advect into the region, supporting temperatures into the upper 30s to near 40. Then, Wednesday afternoon the front will cross from east to west where the lake plains will see a mix of rain and snow showers and some wet snow showers elsewhere. However, east of Lake Ontario should stay mostly snow with a couple of inches of snow will be possible.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. Winds will shift to the northwest as a cold front pushes southward across the area Wednesday night. 850mb temps drop from about -12c Wednesday evening to -16c daybreak Thursday. Modest lake effect snow east of Lake Ontario should enhance a bit with a band dropping south of the lake late Wednesday night. Expect this to drop 1-3 inches southeast of Lake Ontario from Wayne to Oswego counties. Shorter fetch from the northwest flow could drop 1-2 inches east of Lake Erie.

On Thursday and Thursday night, lake effect snows will continue south of the lakes. By this time the air mass will be very dry, with any accumulations expected to be light (an inch or less for most). On Thursday highs will mainly be in the teens, with the combination of cold and wind producing bitterly cold temperatures and wind chills Thursday night. Lows will be below zero at many locations Thursday night, with clear skies allowing temperatures to drop 10 to 20 below across the North Country. Associated wind chills might require wind chill advisory or warning headlines.

High pressure will build across the region Friday, before sliding gradually east across northern New England on Saturday. Any lingering lake snows on Friday will contract close to or across the lakes before ending Friday night. Dissipating lake clouds will allow for good radiational cooling across the entire region Friday night, with lows below zero at most locations. Fair weather Saturday with highs ranging from the teens to mid-20s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. The cold pattern will continue with below normal temperatures and a chance of snow showers.

An elongated trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will approach Saturday night. This will bring a chance of general snow showers Sunday, with lake effect snow showers east/southeast of the lakes late Sunday through Monday. For most locations, any snow accumulation will be light (less than 2 inches) however with 850mb temperatures around -19c any lake snow would likely have snow/water equivalent ratios in excess of 20:1.

A clipper low will move across the eastern Great Lakes Monday night and Tuesday. Improving model agreement on this and although QPFS are light, suspect there's a good chance of measurable precipitation even if it will be on the light side.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. A warm front will continue to move northeast across the area early this morning, producing a period of light snow and IFR VSBY east of Lake Ontario, including KART. Otherwise for the rest of the area, it will be mainly dry with VFR prevailing through the morning.

A strong low level jet will propagate overhead this morning, initially producing low level wind shear, followed by increasing surface winds as the boundary layer mixes. Gusts will reach 30-35 knots today across most of the region before diminishing this evening.

A cold front will cross the area early this afternoon, possibly producing a few light rain/snow showers. Areas of MVFR CIGS will become more widespread along and behind the cold front from midday through the afternoon, with some IFR favored across higher terrain. Any snow showers along the departing cold front will end this evening, with a few light lake effect snow showers southeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario tonight producing local/brief MVFR/IFR conditions. Outside of lake effect areas, expect a mix of VFR/MVFR CIGS.

Outlook .

Thursday and Friday . VFR/MVFR, except local IFR in lake effect snow showers southeast of the lakes. Saturday . mainly VFR. Sunday . MVFR/IFR with a chance of snow showers.

MARINE. There will be a brief lull in winds through this evening, then SSW winds will quickly increase overnight and Wednesday morning as low pressure passes by to the north of the region. A trailing cold front will cross the Lower Great Lakes around midday, bringing another round of high end Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario in southwest winds into Wednesday night.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 AM EST Thursday for LOZ043-044. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 7 AM EST Thursday for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for LOZ045.



SYNOPSIS . EAJ NEAR TERM . EAJ/Hitchcock SHORT TERM . Apffel LONG TERM . Apffel AVIATION . Hitchcock MARINE . EAJ/Hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 20 mi52 min SSE 8.9G16 16°F 1013.3 hPa10°F
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 49 mi52 min 40°F1013.7 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 78 mi22 min SSE 8G9.9 25°F 1011.5 hPa (-5.1)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 80 mi52 min 24°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Last 24 hrNW21
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G17

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY22 mi28 minVar 610.00 miOvercast16°F9°F74%1014 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFZY

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24 hrNW9NW10NW13
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NW12W11NW60000SE3SE3466
1 day agoE11
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S4NE4N7N4N7N8N9NW11NW6W9W10W14
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2 days ago00SE33--44SE63SE645SE7SE7SE4SE4SE654E756E8E8
G17

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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