Thursday, October21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Canaan, NH

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 5:54PM Thursday October 21, 2021 6:07 PM EDT (22:07 UTC) Moonrise 6:36PMMoonset 8:00AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Canaan, NH
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location: 43.68, -72.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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FXUS61 KGYX 211901 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 301 PM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021

SYNOPSIS. A warm front will continue to progress northward through this evening across the region. Tomorrow will start warm, then a cold front crosses with a threat of rain showers . mostly over the mountains and into central Maine. This front will usher in significantly cooler air for the weekend and into early next week. Mostly dry weather is expected through the beginning to middle of next week as high pressure builds across the region. The pattern likely turns more active by late next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Pattern: Early afternoon water vapor imagery shows advancing large- scale trough centered near James Bay with a potent shortwave seen spinning across lower Michigan south of the primary low. Ahead of this feature there is a modest plume of mid level moisture in a broad region of warm advection. Surface low pressure is centered near the mid level swirl and this low is expected to track east northeast tonight, remaining north of northern New England. Rainfall chances associated with this feature are the primary forecast forecast through the near term period.

Through this Evening: Pretty large spread in conditions this afternoon with showers and temperatures in the lower/middle 50s in the mountains with parts of southern NH partly-mostly sunny with temperatures as of this hour pushing above 70. Area of showers across the region will pull east leaving conditions a bit drier through the evening . with mild conditions continuing. 8pm temperatures will be near 50 in the mountains . but still in the lower/middle 60s across southern NH.

Tonight: Shortwave trough axis and associated vortmax will be located over western New York this evening with height falls overspreading our forecast area during the evening with the vort max taking a track to a position near the international border by Friday morning. Mid level support for ascent and steepening mid level lapse rates should be sufficient to support showers after midnight that will march from southwest to northeast across the area While the greatest coverage looks to be in the mountains. mesoscale guidance has increased rainfall amounts just a bit to the south where better elevated instability will be present. Temperatures will remain pretty mild for this time of year with lows in the mountains only falling into the upper 40s with lower/middle 50s to the south.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. High Impact Weather Potential: Potential for a few thunderstorms along the ME coast Friday morning.

Pattern: Upper level low near James Bay will come to a halt with southwesterly flow through the mid and upper levels remaining established across northern New England. The shortwave responsible for showers Thursday night will depart the region Friday with steady heights and slowly rising surface pressure through the period. Primary focus for the forecast will be thunder potential along the front Friday morning followed by temperatures both on Friday /one last warm day/ and Friday night.

Friday: Cold front will be poised to enter the forecast area at daybreak, reaching the coastal plain by early afternoon. Mesoscale guidance shows a plume of elevated instability tracking from far southern NH north and east along the coastal plain of ME through the morning along the front itself which may be sufficient not only for additional morning showers . but also some thunder given a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE The instability is elevated. so do not expect a severe threat . but local downpours are possible with the showers as they rotate through during the morning. Beyond this . with mid level height rises arriving . expect remnant shower activity to end quickly with clearing skies and westerly winds developing for late morning/afternoon. With the timing of the frontal passage . we/ll have time to warm up significantly again . esp along the coastal plain where T9s will still be near 12C which . with some downslope assistance should allow coastal locations to reach 70F. Highs will be closer to 60 in the mountains with cooler air behind the cold front arriving sooner.

Friday Night: Cooler air continues to spill into the region overnight though with longwave trough axis sitting over the eastern Great Lakes . the flow aloft will remain out of the southwest. T8s will fall to around 0C overnight. While the llevel gradient will not be robust . a weak vortmax in the southwesterly flow may assist in maintaining some mid level clouds and therefore confidence is lower in just how good the radiational cooling setup will be. Therefore consensus lows in the 30s in the mountains and mid 40s along the coastal plain look reasonable at this range.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. A trough will continue to deepen across the Great Lakes and Northeast this weekend, bringing much cooler conditions to the area. Seasonably cool temps will continue into early next week as high pressure builds in from Canada. The high will crest the region on Tuesday, and then ridging will likely start to build in the mid and upper levels by midweek next week with moderating temperatures.

Overall there have been some minor changes to the way the pattern looks likely to evolve since yesterday's forecast. The ridge of high pressure bringing the cool Canadian airmass looks likely to stay farther north than what was anticipated yesterday. This allows a couple of weak disturbances passing to the south to feed more cloud cover farther north early next week, while also keeping the core of the cooler air farther north.

While still the coolest air of the season so far, Saturday, Sunday and Monday night don't look to be as cool as earlier thinking, particularly across southern and central areas. While frost is still likely in some of these areas, widespread frosts and freezes don't appear as likely at this point. Monday night continues to stand out as most likely to see the coolest temps of the stretch. However, northern areas still stand the best chance of seeing low temps drop into the 20s as cloud cover will be less of a factor across these parts.

Other than perhaps sprinkle along the coast on Saturday, and a few sprinkles and flurries across the mountains late Sunday, conditions appear quite dry in the long term.

By midweek next week ridging will likely build across the Northeast, with temperatures rebounding to near or slightly above normal. Looking to the end of next week, there is already strong model consensus that the pattern will become highly amplified as a trough becomes negatively tilted through the Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic. Depending on the evolution of this feature, POPs start to rise by Thursday of next week, but Friday and next weekend stand the best chance of seeing a more significant system impact the region.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Short Term .

Summary: Low pressure will push north of the region tonight with showers arriving ahead of an advancing cold front that will cross the region Friday morning. Clearing skies are expected on Friday with high pressure gradually building in through Friday night.

Restrictions: Expect deteriorating conditions at RKD/AUG this evening with low stratus/fog bringing IFR restrictions. Elsewhere . showers ahead of an advancing cold front will bring the potential for MVFR restrictions after midnight with the greatest threat for this LEB/HIE. Improvement arrives from west to east during the morning Friday with all sites VFR Friday afternoon/evening before some valley fog develops late Friday night with potential for LIFR/IFR restrictions at HIE/LEB.

Winds: Southwesterly winds up to 10kts decrease to less than 5kts overnight before westerly winds around 10kts develop during the day Friday before diminishing to calm/light-variable Friday night.

LLWS: Southwesterly winds at 1.5-2kft increase to 25-30kts tonight bringing a period of LLWS.

Lightning: An isolated thunderstorm is possible PWM-AUG-RKD between 10 and 14Z Friday. Precip wanes through midnight local, with a cold front pushing in from the west overnight. -SHRA is expected, along with IFR/MVFR ceilings across northern NH TAFs and perhaps AUG/RKD Thurs night.

Long Term . Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the weekend and early next week as high pressure builds into the region. Some MVFR conditions are possible at times late Saturday, and then again late Sunday across northern terminals due to ceilings. Nighttime valley fog is possible early next week.

MARINE. Short Term . Southwest winds will strengthen with building waves tonight into Friday ahead of an advancing cold front. These will near SCA levels in the outer portions of ANZ150 for a few hours on Friday. Winds/waves will diminish Friday night.

Long Term . Brief northwesterly wind gusts to near SCA criteria are possible late Sunday and Monday. Otherwise, conditions ease by late Monday through midweek as high pressure builds across the waters.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ME . None. NH . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ150.

SYNOPSIS . Clair NEAR TERM . Arnott SHORT TERM . Arnott LONG TERM . Clair AVIATION . Arnott/Clair MARINE . Arnott/Clair


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 79 mi83 min S 1 73°F 1012 hPa55°F
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 84 mi50 min E 5.1G6 61°F 59°F1012.2 hPa
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 85 mi68 min ENE 1.9 61°F 56°F

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lebanon Municipal Airport, NH12 mi75 minNNE 410.00 miA Few Clouds59°F54°F83%1011.3 hPa
Plymouth Municipal Airport, NH19 mi73 minN 07.00 miRain57°F55°F95%1011.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLEB

Wind History from LEB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS400S30NE4000NE30000000W300000N4
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Tide / Current Tables for Salmon Falls River entrance, Piscataqua River, New Hampshire
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Salmon Falls River entrance
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Thu -- 01:44 AM EDT     7.16 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:54 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:02 AM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:55 PM EDT     7.42 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:31 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:27 PM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Squamscott River RR. Bridge, New Hampshire
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Squamscott River RR. Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:28 AM EDT     7.16 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:54 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:51 AM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:39 PM EDT     7.42 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:32 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:16 PM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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