Saturday, October23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Old Forge, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 6:03PM Saturday October 23, 2021 3:41 PM EDT (19:41 UTC) Moonrise 7:42PMMoonset 10:19AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ022 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 721 Am Edt Sat Oct 23 2021
Today..North winds less than 10 knots becoming west. Mostly cloudy early, then becoming partly Sunny.
Tonight..Northwest winds less than 10 knots. Mostly cloudy.
Sunday..South winds less than 10 knots. Partly Sunny.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Rain likely overnight.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Patchy fog during the day. Occasional rain during the day, then occasional rain and drizzle Monday night.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. Rain likely during the day, then scattered showers Tuesday night.
Wednesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. Scattered showers during the day.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Old Forge, NY
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location: 43.68, -74.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 231731 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 131 PM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021

SYNOPSIS. Mainly dry and seasonably cool weather is expected this weekend with variable cloud cover. There will be areas of frost at night. Widespread rainfall will arrive Sunday night and continue through early next week as our next system pushes across the region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 120 pm, water vapor imagery is showing troughing across the forecast area. A disturbance rotating through the base of the trough is generating enough lift to produce some light showers over the eastern half of PA and southern tier of NY. Obs and CAMs suggest a couple of these light showers could reach parts of the eastern Catskills, Mid Hudson Valley, and NW CT this afternoon into the evening. Elsewhere, partly to mostly cloudy skies amid stratocu along/north of I-90 with clear to partly cloudy skies south. The clear areas should cloud up as we head further into the afternoon due to the aforementioned disturbance. Temps are not likely to rise much for the rest of the day.

Tonight, cloud cover will likely gradually clear out in the wake of the midlevel disturbance as a ridge of high pressure builds in. This should present good radiational cooling conditions tonight. Last night, most areas west of the Hudson fell into the upper 20s and low 30s, and we see no reason why this wouldn't happen again. In the Hudson Valley, there is likely to be less clouds around than last night, so lows will likely be a bit cooler in areas that stayed cloudy last night. Expecting mainly 30s. NBM lows were undercut by a couple of degrees.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. An active weather period is expected late Sunday through early next week with a widespread, soaking rainfall.

We start off Sunday chilly but dry with high pressure remaining in control giving way to a partly to mostly sunny day. Some mid- and high clouds will increase during the afternoon upon the approach of our next system. 850 hPa temperatures will be on the rise, so highs look to run a few degrees higher than Saturday. Highs look to reach the mid- to upper 40s in the higher terrain to the mid- to upper 50s in the valleys.

During Sunday night, an area of low pressure will push eastward into the Ohio Valley as a warm front slowly lifts northward across our region. By early Monday morning, the warm front looks to be positioned near the I-90 corridor. Plenty of convergence and lift along this front will lead to widespread rainfall. Rain could begin as early as Sunday evening across some southern and western areas but the majority of the rainfall looks to arrive after midnight. With the clouds and rainfall, temperatures will not fall as far as the previous couple of nights, only dipping into the upper 30s to upper 40s.

Rain will continue to fall along the warm front on Monday. It is at this time that the warm front will become 'slanted' as the mid-level warm front advances northward toward the St. Lawrence River but the low-level warm front gets hung up along or just north of I-90. There may be some mid-level dry air punching in from the southwest as well, which could lead to a reduction in rainfall during the day or even cause rain to stop. We adjusted pops to reflect this trend, going from categorical pops early in the morning to chance to likely in the afternoon with the lowest pops in southern areas. With a possible break in rainfall, high temperatures were trended slightly upward, from the mid- to upper 40s in the higher elevations to the mid- to upper 50s in the valleys. Some parts of the mid-Hudson Valley may reach the lower 60s. If there can be breaks of sun, we could rise a bit more.

Low and mid-level moisture increase again Monday night as the surface and upper-level low approach the mid-Atlantic states. Upper- level jet dynamics strengthen overhead which will aid in the increase in rainfall once again, so we returned to categorical pops. Lows Monday night will be mostly in the 40s, except some upper 30s in the higher elevations and lower 50s in the mid- Hudson Valley into northwestern Connecticut.

Forecast rainfall spanning Sunday evening through Monday night are currently in the 0.75 and 1.50 inch range.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The overall weather pattern will be active during the long term as it may feature two storm systems capable of widespread rainfall. The first will take place Tuesday-Wednesday and then the second late in the work week. Both will be capable of producing widespread rainfall as they tap in tropical moisture but uncertainty in the exact system storm track and therefore placement of the steadiest rainfall remain uncertain. Besides being a wet week, high temperatures will be seasonable while overnight lows should actually be milder than normal for late October due to persistent cloud coverage. Read on for details.

We start off on Tuesday with southern and northern stream shortwaves phasing together, resulting in a secondary surface low developing off the the Delmarva/NJ coast. With the low positioned in the left exit region of a decently strong jet extending southeastward from the Ohio Valley towards the mid-Atlantic coast, the surface low looks to strengthen. In fact, global guidance is in good agreement that southerly winds ahead of the low will be capable of tapping into tropical moisture and directing anomalously high PWATs towards New England which the latest NAEFS characterize as 1 to 2 standard deviations above normal. There are still some differences in the exact track of the surface low with the GFS/CMC still displacing the low slightly further south/east compared to the ECWMF. Even still, guidance does agree that given the late timing of when the two shortwaves phase, the tropical moisture plume should be directed mainly east of the Hudson River which should keep the heaviest rainfall mainly into our southern and western New England zones. Regardless, Tuesday looks like a wet day with nearly the entire area experiencing showers with temperatures steady in the 50s (40s in the hill towns/higher terrain).

As the low becomes vertically stacked Tuesday night, an inverted surface trough looks to develop which could produce additional periods of moderate rain for parts of eastern NY/western New England, depending on the track of the surface low. Due to ongoing showers and cloud coverage, there likely will be little of a diurnal swings in temperatures Tuesday night with lows only dropping into low to mid 40s.

The vertically stacked low meanders over New England on Wednesday, resulting in yet another day with temperatures in the 50s under cloudy skies. Scattered showers should be ongoing as our area remains northeast of the surface low resulting in continued wrap around showers. The surface low finally exits Wednesday night with temperatures turning slightly cooler than Tuesday night as showers gradually end. Expect lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.

We should see a break from the wet weather on Thursday as shortwave upper level ridging builds in from the Ohio Valley with temperatures warming slightly above normal into the mid 50s towards 60. We continued slight chance POPs given uncertainty on when the Tues/Wed low exits but we trended POPs downward from the previous forecast based on latest trends. The respite from the wet weather will be short-lived as a southern stream closed low tracking across the CONUS From the West Coast will finally arrive towards the end of the work week. Guidance suggests southern stream energy phases with northern stream trough to develop into a full latitude trough. This could result in yet another secondary surface low developing for the Halloween weekend, bringing periods of rain to the region depending on its exact track. Still uncertainty with this second storm system given it is still more than five days away. However, if the region becomes saturated from the Tues/Wed system and we become more confident that another round of moderate rain is on the way, we may need to monitor for possible flooding.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Mainly VFR conditions are expected through Sunday at our TAF sites with light winds. SCT-BKN cu from 3500 to 5000 feet will be predominant this afternoon, then a layer of higher clouds from 8000 to 12000 feet will overspread the area late this afternoon through this evening. Skies will clear overnight, then just some high, thin clouds will be expected through early afternoon on Sunday. Localized patches of fog may develop for a few hours late tonight, especially at GFL.

Winds will be variable at less than 10 kts into Sunday afternoon.

Outlook .

Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA. Monday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA. Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA. Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

FIRE WEATHER. Mainly dry conditions are expected this weekend with a widespread, soaking rainfall arriving late Sunday and continuing through early next week.

RH values will lower to 50 to 65 percent during the afternoon both today and Sunday and rebound to 85 to 100 percent tonight.

Wind will be mainly out of the west today at 5 to 10 mph, then go calm tonight. Wind will be out of the west to southwest at 5 to 10 mph Sunday.

HYDROLOGY. Mainly dry conditions are expected this weekend with a widespread, soaking rainfall arriving late Sunday and continuing through early next week.

Widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to as much as 3 inches are possible spanning late Sunday through Wednesday of next week. This will lead to rises on area rivers and streams.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. MA . None. VT . None.

SYNOPSIS . Rathbun NEAR TERM . Thompson SHORT TERM . Rathbun LONG TERM . Speciale AVIATION . MSE/Speciale FIRE WEATHER . Rathbun HYDROLOGY . Rathbun


Weather Reporting Stations
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On 03/09/2021 the NDBC primary processing servers were shut off due to a facilities issue. Station pages on the NDBC website are not updating and there is no ETR at this time. We will update this banner as we learn more.
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 82 mi59 min 49°F 64°F1013.4 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 97 mi53 min W 8.9G12 48°F 1014.8 hPa41°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Griffiss Air Force Base / Rome, NY48 mi48 minVar 510.00 miOvercast51°F39°F64%1014.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRME

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Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:07 AM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:37 AM EDT     4.13 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:10 PM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:54 PM EDT     5.14 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:57 AM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:29 AM EDT     4.13 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:00 PM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:46 PM EDT     5.14 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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