Sunrise 5:52 AM   Sunset 7:56 PM Moonrise 12:24 AM   Moonset 8:32 AM

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SLZ022 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 409 Am Edt Sun Apr 28 2024
Today - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and early. A chance of showers this afternoon. Tonight - West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Showers likely early, then a chance of showers late in the evening. Monday - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Monday night - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely overnight. Tuesday - Northeast winds 10 knots or less. Showers likely. Wednesday - North winds less than 10 knots becoming south. Partly to mostly cloudy. Thursday - Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A chance of showers Thursday night.

SLZ005
No data

FXUS61 KALY 281750 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 150 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

SYNOPSIS
A warm front approaching from the southwest will keep skies mostly cloudy today with a chance of showers and some rumbles of thunder this afternoon and into this evening. Primarily dry conditions return for Monday as high pressure ridging builds northward across the region. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase once again Monday night through Tuesday as another frontal system approaches. Confidence continues to increase in the expectation of mild temperatures for late April and early May this week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 130 PM EDT, mostly sunny skies have allowed temps to soar into the mid 60s to lower 70s, with some of the warmest temps thus far across higher terrain of the SW Adirondacks and SE Catskills.

Clouds have increased across much of Herkimer County and portions of the western Mohawk Valley, and will continue expanding eastward through mid afternoon. In addition, scared showers across central NYS have extended into far southern Herkimer County and are tracking east/southeast. Expect showers to continue to develop and/or expand east and south through this afternoon, reaching the much of the southern Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley and Lake George/Saratoga region, Capital Region and Schoharie County between 2 and 4 PM from west to east, and then the SE Catskills, mid Hudson Valley and Berkshires into NW CT after 4 PM.

Despite the warm surface temps, latest SPC Mesoanalysis indicates MU CAPES of 100-250 J/kg entering the western Mohawk Valley and SW Adirondacks, with greater instability displaced farther west and south of the region. Forecast soundings do suggest pockets of 250-500 J/kg could extend into portions of the western Mohawk Valley and Schoharie County later this afternoon, and this area will be where the best chance for embedded thunderstorms will be. A few rumbles could extent slightly farther east, but best chances will remain across western areas, and perhaps across the southern Adirondacks in closer proximity to approaching cold front from the north.

Although can not completely rule out isolated gusty winds within any rogue stronger storm, most storms will just have some brief heavy downpours and occasional lightning.

Still expect max temps to peak in the lower/mid 70s before clouds and showers arrive.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will persist into this evening, though should not last much past sunset as the loss of diurnal heating will decrease instability throughout the region. Additionally, with a region of high pressure amplifying over the southeast coastal states, mid- to upper-level ridging will expand northward acting to increase subsidence across the area. Clouds will likely stick around for the most part throughout the overnight period as a weak cool frontal boundary pushes south with the further southeastward track of the aforementioned parent low, but a gradual decrease in coverage is expected from south to north. Low temperatures will maintain the current mild trend with mid 40s to upper 50s expected across the area.

The cool boundary looks to gradually track through the region throughout the day Monday, nearly stalling just south of the Capital District as the amplifying ridge counteracts its progress. Primarily dry conditions are expected Monday with clouds continuing to decrease courtesy of increasing subsidence with the building ridge. High temperatures will be just a bit cooler than today for much of the area with intruding cooler air only allowing temperatures to moderate primarily into the 60s with low 70s likely south of the Capital District.

Monday night into Tuesday, shower and thunderstorm chances increase once again as another frontal system moves into the western Great Lakes and extends another warm frontal boundary eastward. Once again elevated instability will increase leading to the likelihood of some embedded rumbles of thunder with developing showers. However, the main difference in this set up is the development of a secondary low pressure center along the boundary which will enhance convergence and increase forcing across the area. As such, showers and thunderstorms are expected to be more widespread than those that will be experienced today.
However, it is still too soon to determine storm severity. At this time, confidence points to a low probability of any severe storms developing Tuesday given the lack of low-level instability and the presence of the mean ridging aloft hindering stronger forcing. We will continue to monitor the situation over the coming days.

Low temperatures Monday night will be in the upper 40s to low 50s. High temperatures Tuesday will then warm to the 60s and 70s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Exiting upper energy and weak cold front with associated showers and a possible rumble of thunder Tuesday night through Wednesday.
Decreasing coverage of showers and clouds through Wednesday afternoon. Highs Wednesday in the 60s with near 70 in the Hudson Valley.

Dry weather with a mix of clouds and sun Thursday with flat upper ridging in our region. Highs Thursday in the 70s with around 70 higher terrain.

The next upper energy and associated increasing warm advection and moisture advection approaches Friday with increasing clouds and coverage of showers, possible a rumble of thunder. Highs Friday in the 70s with around 70 higher terrain.

Potential better coverage of showers ahead of a cold front Saturday, with a continued possible rumble of thunder. Highs Saturday in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A warm front will bring an increase of clouds with showers and isolated thunderstorms late this afternoon into early this evening for KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU. The showers increase 20Z/SUN to 00Z/MON. We did include thunderstorms for KALB/KPOU 21Z SUN to 01Z/MON with some elevated instability in TEMPO groups.
Cigs/vsbys were lowered to MVFR levels with the showers/isolated thunderstorms at all the TAF sites.

Conditions may briefly rise to VFR levels before another batch of showers arrive with the upper level disturbance and cold front. We tried to use PROB30 groups for 3-4 hrs prior to 07Z/MON and then have MVFR cigs (1.5-3.0 kft AGL) develop in the wake of the disturbance thereafter until 12-15Z/MON with VFR conditions with cigs 3.5-5 kft AGL returning.

South to southeast winds 5-10 KT with a few gusts 15-18 KT at KALB will veer to the southwest to west at 5-10 KT around 00Z/MON. The winds will further shift to the northwest to north at around 5-10 KT overnight and continue through Monday morning.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

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