Thursday, September23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
North Creek, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 6:52PM Thursday September 23, 2021 2:46 PM EDT (18:46 UTC) Moonrise 8:18PMMoonset 9:17AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Creek, NY
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location: 43.71, -74.01     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 231748 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 148 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will slowly approach the region today with mild and breezy conditions with isolated to scattered showers. The front will bring a burst of moderate to locally heavy rainfall with a few thunderstorms tonight. The showers will end Friday late morning, as a cooler and drier air mass builds in Friday night into Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 1045 AM EDT . Southeast flow of mild and humid air across the region with isolated to scattered pre-frontal showers occurring. These showers will continue through this afternoon. An occluded low pressure system continues to approach from the eastern Great lakes Region, as a cold front moves slowly across western NY and PA.

The better coverage of showers tied to the low-level convergence with the front and the mid and upper level trough turning negatively tilted arrives in the mid to late pm for the western periphery of the forecast area. Modest amounts of MLCAPE/SBCAPE will be in place at 200-500 J/kg. The 0-1 km and 0-6 km shear will be strong for some embedded thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall, as PWATs rise to 1.50-2.00". The southerly winds will be 15 to 25 mph with some gusts in the 35-45 mph range over the higher terrain and within the confluent area of the Hudson River Valley.

Highs will be in the 75 to 80F range in the valleys, and upper 60s to mid 70s over the higher terrain.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. Flash Flood Watch from 5 pm EDT today to 11 am EDT Fri for the eastern Catskills, mid Hudson Valley and the southern and central Taconics .

The mid and upper level trough turns negatively tilted as a band of heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms impact the forecast area overnight. PWATs will run +1 to +2 STDEVS above normal and will be in excess of 1.50" in many spots. Some hourly rainfall rates may reach a half and inch to an inch an hour with some orographic enhancements off the east/southeast Catskills. FFG values remain high due to drier soils since the Ida heavy rains on the 1-2 SEP. Greatest concern for isolated to scattered flash flooding is over the eastern Catskills, mid Hudson Valley, southern and central Taconics. Some minor training of shower and thunderstorms is possible. WPC maintains a Marginal to Slight Risk in Day 1 of the ERO. Overall, the short range guidance is showing a 1-2 inch rain event with some amounts to 3" or so especially over the eastern Catskills, and perhaps the eastern Adirondacks.

The low-level shear is very strong and we will have to monitor for some gusty winds or an isolated tornado south and east of the I-90 corridor. It is a high shear and low CAPE environment. The latest CAMS show a gradual progression north and east of the rainfall overnight.

Lows will be in the 60s with some 50s west of the Hudson River Valley.

Friday . The narrow cold frontal rainband pulls east of the Hudson River Valley after daybreak and impacts the Taconics and western New England. A Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms remains up for most of western New England. The latest 3-km HRRR trends have the rains ending over the eastern zones by the early pm. Some poor drainage flooding or isolated flash flooding is possible still into the late morning. The afternoon should feature some drier weather from southwest to northeast across the region. Highs will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s in the valley areas and 50s to mid 60s over the higher terrain, as cold advection sweeps across the region in the wake of the front.

Fri Night . Cooler and drier weather is expected with cyclonic flow aloft. High pressure will be building in from the Virginias with partly cloudy to mostly clear skies and light winds. Some patchy to areas of fog or mist are possible in the valleys. Lows will be cooler in the 40s to lower 50s.

Saturday . A nice start to the weekend is expected with high pressure nudging in from the south. Another disturbance in the west to northwest flow will be approaching from the Great Lakes Region and southern Ontario with clouds increasing in the afternoon. Highs will be near seasonable normals in the 60s to lower 70s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. A progressive shortwave trough is forecast to swing into the area on Sunday. This trough is not expected to have much moisture to work with, but looks to generate isolated to scattered showers. Highest PoPs the further north one goes, but will keep it scattered at most. Northwesterly flow in the wake of the trough will promote high pressure at the surface for Sunday night into Monday, with tranquil weather expected. Another moisture-starved disturbance may approach by Monday night or Tuesday, so will include chances for showers once again. Timing of these features is a bit uncertain due to the progressive pattern. 12Z.23 ECMWF shows the latter system cutting off over the Northeast US downstream of a massive ridge over the north-central US/south-central Canada in an Omega block configuration. Will keep an eye on this. Temps during the period are expected to average near normal for now.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Through 18z/Fri . Mainly dry weather will continue through the afternoon with just a brief shower or two possible. Expect VFR conditions through the rest of the afternoon with possible brief MVFR cigs at KPSF.

By this evening, cigs will lower to MVFR levels with rain approaching from the west. Moderate to heavy rainfall will push across during the late evening and overnight hours with widespread MVFR/IFR conditions due to cigs and/or vsbys. Rain will depart early Friday morning with VFR conditions gradually returning (last at KPSF).

Wind will be out of the southeast at 10-20 kt with gusts to 30 kt this afternoon, then lessen this evening, becoming light and variable toward daybreak Friday. Wind will then be out of the southwest at 5-10 kt Friday morning.

A period of LLWS is expected at all terminals later this afternoon into the overnight hours at all sites with winds at 2000 feet increasing to 40-45 kt.

Outlook .

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

FIRE WEATHER. A cold front will slowly approach the region today with mild and breezy conditions during the day with scattered showers. The front will bring a burst of moderate to locally heavy rainfall with a few thunderstorms tonight. The showers will end Friday late morning, as a cooler and drier air mass builds in Friday night into Saturday.

The RH values will lower to 65 to 75 percent this afternoon, and then increase to 100 percent tonight in the rainfall. The minimum RH values Friday afternoon will be 50 to 70 percent.

The winds will be southerly at 15 to 25 mph today with gusts 35 to 45 mph. The winds will shift to the southwest to west at 10 to 20 mph tonight, and then veer to the west to northwest at 5 to 15 mph on Friday.

HYDROLOGY. Some isolated to scattered flash flooding is possible over the eastern Catskills, mid Hudson valley and the southern and central Taconics.

Chances for rain showers will continue to increase tonight through the end of the week as a slow-moving cold front approaches from the west. A period of moderate to heavy rainfall is expected as the front passes. The most likely timing for the moderate to heavy rain will be late this afternoon into Friday morning.

Area rivers and streams will increase in response to this weather event, but are expected to remain below flood stage. Isolated to scattered Flash Flooding is possible, mainly in urban and poor drainage areas as we are under a Marginal to Slight Risk for excessive rainfall.

Total rainfall amounts will generally be 1 to 3 inches. Some river responses with notable within bank rises. Flows should receded heading into the weekend.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

CLIMATE. We will resume issuing our climate products this afternoon. Thank you for your patience.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . Flash Flood Watch from 5 PM EDT this afternoon through Friday morning for NYZ058>061-063>066. MA . None. VT . None.

SYNOPSIS . Wasula NEAR TERM . IAA/Wasula SHORT TERM . Wasula LONG TERM . Thompson AVIATION . Rathbun FIRE WEATHER . Wasula HYDROLOGY . Evbuoma/Wasula CLIMATE . ALY Staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Glens Falls, Floyd Bennett Memorial Airport, NY32 mi54 minSSE 13 G 1810.00 miOvercast79°F64°F60%1013.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGFL

Wind History from GFL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9S8S8S8S5SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS10S12
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S9S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3S7S9
2 days agoSW8S8SW6S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5S3CalmCalmCalmS5S7S6S10
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Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
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Thu -- 01:44 AM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:23 AM EDT     4.50 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:14 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:59 PM EDT     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:45 PM EDT     4.82 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.2-0.10.723.13.94.54.43.62.61.810.1-0.30.21.6344.64.84.33.32.4

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
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Thu -- 01:35 AM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:15 AM EDT     4.50 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:14 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:49 PM EDT     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:37 PM EDT     4.82 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.1-00.92.23.344.54.33.52.51.60.8-0-0.30.41.83.14.14.74.84.23.22.3

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