Sunrise 5:18 AM   Sunset 8:15 PM Moonrise 4:28 PM   Moonset 3:24 AM

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LMZ669 Expires:202405200330;;499510 Fzus63 Kmkx 192027 Glflm
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 327 pm cdt Sun may 19 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
Synopsis -
light and variable winds will continue over the lake through the rest of the afternoon and evening as high pressure of 30.0 moves northeast. Winds will then come around to southeasterly by daybreak on Monday and should become more southerly by Monday afternoon. Breezy southerly winds will remain Monday night into Tuesday morning before winds become southeasterly ahead of a low pressure system that will deepen to 29.4 inches as it approaches the upper great lakes region. Periods of Thunderstorms are also expected over the lake Monday through Wednesday morning.
lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-200330- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 327 pm cdt Sun may 19 2024
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south - .
Tonight - North winds 10 to 15 kt veering to southeast. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming south 10 to 20 kt. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Monday night - South winds 10 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southeast 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 ft building to 2 to 4 ft. Tuesday night - South winds to 30 kt. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft building to 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft. Wednesday - Southwest winds to 30 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft. Wednesday night - West winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft. Thursday - West winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Friday - East winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southeast 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.

LMZ600
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FXUS63 KMKX 191519 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1019 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Unsettled Monday and Tuesday with several rounds of rain/storms.

- Increased risk for strong/severe storms Tuesday and Tuesday evening.

UPDATE
Issued 1006 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

No major changes to the going forecast for today as high pressure will support quiet conditions. High clouds will generally spread overhead with time owing to blow off from an area of showers and storms over the Missouri River Valley.

We're keeping an eye on the Monday and Tuesday severe weather threat and we should have an update with the afternoon forecast.

CMiller

SHORT TERM
Issued 430 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Today through Tuesday night:

Another warm day in store for southern Wisconsin. Temperatures will be a little cooler than the previous day with high temperatures expected to climb into the low 80s. This is in part due to some weak cold air advection behind the cold front.
However, based on guidance leaned more toward the bias corrected again to increase temps bringing 80s into more areas of southern Wisconsin than previous runs. The best chance for temps near 85 will be across far southern Wisconsin with cooler temperatures as you head north. Temperatures early this morning remain high with many urban heat islands still in the 70s. More rural areas are finally falling into the mid 60s. This is the main reason for the change of increasing beyond guidance. 925mb temperatures will be warm again near 20 and the surface temps overnight are elevated. This does leave a small window for temperatures to slightly overperform today.

Tonight into Monday the chance for rain and a few thunderstorms returns. A low pressure system will advect east from the central/northern plains. Tonight the main forcing for any rain/storms will the be the strong low level jet moving into the state. The low level jet doesn't look to make an appearance in southern Wisconsin until after midnight. As the upper level shortwave pivots into the state Monday, there will be additional chances for shower and storms. Some capping could inhibit convection initiation initially in the afternoon and early evening. There is a potential that if the shortwave moves through quickly that the evening remains mostly dry as the synoptic support will be gone. Overall the best potential for showers and storms will be late tonight through Monday morning.
There is a potential for some stronger to severe storms with the main concern being hail given the good mid level lapse rates.
Any storms that towers up quickly could provide an isolated wind threat.

Tuesday brings the next chance for rain and storms as the next upper level shortwave moves through the state. In comparison to Monday, Tuesday's system looks to be more robust. This would be the best chance for strong to severe weather out of the two days. Guidance is overall a bit of a mess with this system which leads to a more complex forecast. The GFS seems to be the biggest of the outliers with the low pressure system moving faster and further east/north than the other guidance. This has resulted in storms firing along the warm front as it progresses northward during the morning/afternoon as there will be synoptic support. In comparison, other guidance seem to be slower with the system movement. Which allows the warm front to move in and limits the amount of rain in the morning/afternoon hours, even leaving portions of the forecast area completely dry when considering ensemble guidance. This slower progression could lead to greater surface heating and instability for when the cold front moves through in the evening. The cold front will be the main driver for our severe potential. All storm modes will be possible with the main hazard concerns being winds and tornadoes. Tornadic potential at this point leans toward the short-lived quick spin up type.

Tuesday's biggest issues will be the convective potential along the warm front in the morning/early afternoon. If showers and storms start to develop early then the instability may be lacking when the cold front begins to move through in the evening leading to the severe threat being undercut.

Patterson

LONG TERM
Issued 430 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Wednesday through Saturday:

The cold front will be clear of southern WI by Wednesday morning, per the majority of models and ensembles. The GFS tries to delay the front through our area until later Wed and sneaks in a shortwave trough along it to bring in additional precip chances, but this is an outlier, even from most of the GFS ensemble. I kept a slight chance (20%) of showers in our north toward central WI due to the potential for strato-cu showers with any wrap-around precip from the exiting upper low. Otherwise, expect gusty westerly winds and cooler temperatures around 70.

Thursday through Saturday high temps will also be in the lower to mid 70s, with lows in the lower 50s, much more seasonal for this time of year. The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will arrive Friday afternoon or night to kick off Memorial Day Weekend. This is associated with an upper low tracking across southern Canada. As the case has been lately, the GFS goes crazy with the QPF and also brings the front through WI earlier than the ECMWF (by at least 12 hours). Given forecast model trends and biases, I would not be surprised if Friday-Fri nt ends up dry.

Regardless of having chances for showers and storms all weekend in the forecast, it looks like we will have one front with the potential for storms to deal with over this holiday weekend.
Overall, most of the weekend looks dry and just barely on the warmer side of normal.

Cronce

AVIATION
Issued 1010 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Conditions should remain VFR with no vis restrictions and BKN250 building in through this afternoon. Winds will be light and variable and will grow easterly this afternoon as a lake breeze pushes in land. Clouds bases will generally remain VFR overnight but should begin to lower as shower and thunderstorm chances increase during the early morning hours. By daybreak on Monday, MVFR should move in from KMSN and points west amid breezy southerlies to 15 knots.

CMiller

MARINE
Issued 430 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

A cold front is passing over the lake early this morning, locations east of the front will continue to have southwest winds while those behind the front will have northerly winds. As high pressure moves quickly through the Great Lakes Region today, light and variable winds will be expected. Ahead of an approaching low pressure system, winds will shift to southerly and become breezy. The breezy southerly winds are expected through Tuesday. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed during this time.

Patterson

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.

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