Tuesday, December7, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sebewaing, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:53AMSunset 5:00PM Tuesday December 7, 2021 8:23 PM EST (01:23 UTC) Moonrise 11:35AMMoonset 8:39PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 350 Pm Est Tue Dec 7 2021
Tonight..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Mostly cloudy. A chance of light snow showers after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots early in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy with a chance of light snow showers in the morning, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and early morning, then backing to the south after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots early in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. A chance of light snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:202112080415;;071794 FZUS53 KDTX 072050 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 350 PM EST Tue Dec 7 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-080415-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sebewaing, MI
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location: 43.76, -83.68     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 072350 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 650 PM EST Tue Dec 7 2021

NEAR TERM. (Through Tonight) Issued at 343 PM EST Tue Dec 7 2021

. Lake effect snow reinvigorates tonight .

High Impact Weather Potential: Moderate. Accumulating lake effect/enhanced snow nw lower MI.

High pressure is crossing southern IN/OH. 1013mb low pressure is over nw IA. This low will approach southern Lake MI by morning, though this low will tend to fill overnight, as cyclogenesis proceeds over northern MI. An initial, weak shortwave pushes from southern MN to central lower MI tonight, but a stronger wave digs across Superior tonight. The surface low reorganizes further north in response to that.

A small area of synoptically-driven will continue eastward, just north of the original surface low. This would track into central lower MI late evening/overnight, tending to diminish with time as the original low deteriorates. The synoptic component to snowfall tonight will be negligible. But the low levels are abundantly cold (widespread temps in the teens) and potentially unstable. Lake effect snow should see a considerable resurgence with the added moisture, and a rather long sw fetch on Lake MI. 850mb temps of -13 to -15C will provide abundant instability, and a respectable DGZ (and at times max omega within it) to promote fluffier snowfall and higher snow-liquid ratios. Sw flow holds for most of the night, only veering w-nw over Lake MI toward 12Z.

Have adjusted QPF and snow ratios higher. How much higher? Well, multiple runs of the HRRR have generated over an inch of liquid QPF on a small part of Emmet Co tonight. The HRRR is likely in general overdone, but sw flow events do get excessively exuberant on occasion over the tip of the mitt. Do have a small area of Emmet Co, between Harbor Spgs and Cross Village, getting up to 8" of fluffy snow tonight. Without much wind, and with a largely nocturnal event, a warning does not appear necessary.

Have expanded the advisory a touch this afternoon, to include Charlevoix Co (where healthy snow is expected along the coast, including in the city of Charlevoix). Cheboygan Co was also added, though this was a tougher call; heavier snow amounts should only be in a small portion of nw Cheboygan Co, west of the city of Cheboygan. But this includes a decent stretch of I-75, and have elected to include largely for that reason.

With increasing cloud cover, and low-level warm advection, temps won't get an opportunity to fall too much. Mins will be mainly in single digits above zero in eastern upper MI, and in the lower to middle teens in northern lower.

SHORT TERM. (Wednesday through Friday) Issued at 343 PM EST Tue Dec 7 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: System snow Thursday with precipitation-type issues Thursday night . additional system later Friday.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Morning surface analysis shows broad high pressure across the eastern CONUS . though Lake Aggregate troughing holds on across Northern Michigan, resulting in lingering lake effect snow here. Next system upstream is located over southeast South Dakota . associated with a trough axis aloft extending from Minnesota southwestward into the Lee of the Rockies. Thermal boundary at the surface is analyzed from this system back into southern Montana towards the Oregon/Washington coast. Thermal gradient aloft is tightening across Alberta this morning as ridging moves onshore . resulting in a stationary boundary analyzed over this same area . with a resultant upper level jet max as well, which will feed into the troughing across the central CONUS.

By Wednesday morning . will look for trough axis to have moved nearly overhead . and continue to swing through through the remainder of the day. Ridging will be quick to move in behind it . ahead of a southern stream shortwave taking shape across the central/southern Rockies, with a resultant surface low ahead of it. This niblet will head northeastward along the flow . affecting us Thursday Flow will amplify across the CONUS. as well as upstream over the Pacific . going through the day Friday. This will result in a deeper and more organized trough axis across the western central CONUS by late Friday . with another deep trough diving toward the Pacific coast of North America for the end of the short term . and beginning of the extended.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Lingering snowfall Wednesday . return of snow and precipitation type issues Thursday? . ditto for Friday . gusty winds late week as well .

By Wednesday morning . trough axis aloft should be poised just to our west/northwest . swinging across the CWA through the day . and taking much of any remaining mid-level moisture along with it. Will look for the surface reflection to be ahead of the trough axis aloft . with fropa likely taking place during the morning hours, resulting in NW flow behind the system. Would look for a potential band of snow to precede the front, given some potential upper level support along/ahead of the trough aloft . though the strongest signals for snow will remain across northwest Lower Wednesday morning. Currently doesn't look like there'll be a ton of wind with this (thankfully), which should help keep any lingering lake effect behind the system closer to shore. Does appear that inversion heights fall through the day as we lose mid-level moisture . but, like trying to brake in the snow . it will take longer to put the stop on the lake effect machine than we may expect. Guidance points toward some potential NW flow convergence across Eastern Upper through the day . which is something we'll have to keep an eye on, particularly with somewhat better instability up that way.

Once surface high pressure passes by Wednesday night (which could result in a chilly night for some areas that stay clear to mostly clear with lighter winds . ), will look for southerly flow to return and strengthen for Thursday ahead of the next system, related to a couple niblets of energy in the flow ahead of larger-scale troughing across the western/central CONUS. As deeper moisture returns to the Great Lakes ahead of this system on strong southerly flow . will look for some warm advection precip to spread into the area ahead of a weakening surface low in broader surface troughing extending northward to a surface low in central Manitoba. This surface trough/cold front will swing through Thursday into Thursday night . lending to additional synoptic support for precip . in combination with an approaching upper level jet max Attm. deepest moisture looks to be a little further north with this system, closer to the UP and Tip of the Mitt . but will have to watch this in the next day or two to see if anything changes. Looks like this will likely be focused later in the afternoon into early Thursday night, with guidance perhaps a touch quicker than previously. With warm advection comes potential for p-type issues . so will have to keep an eye on that as well Additionally. with the warm advection aloft . and a deep mid-level dry layer Thursday evening/night, but saturated low levels possible up to around 850mb . may have some freezing drizzle concerns to contend with.

Going into Friday . the column begins to saturate again from the top down ahead of a more substantial system developing out in the central/southern Plains This will remain a tricky forecast. as guidance continues to track this system through the Great Lakes, though recent model trends seem to indicate a further south and east track. This suggests we may have more frozen/mixy crud to deal with, as opposed to the primarily rain situation we'd have if it were further north . though there is still a fair amount of uncertainty in the exact track and timing attm. Will have to watch this closely . as it will bring a conglomeration of potential impacts to the area . including mixed precip and gusty winds, in addition to higher-moisture-content synoptic snow . all of which will be dependent on where the system tracks Currently. may be dealing with a bit of a calm-before-the-storm situation early Friday . with the biggest impacts perhaps holding off till later in the day/evening . but will have to see how timing trends play out in the coming model runs.

LONG TERM. (Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 343 PM EST Tue Dec 7 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: Moderate . potential system Friday night into Saturday .

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Aforementioned deep and organized trough axis will swing across the central CONUS Saturday . with a strong upper level jet max ahead of it. Synoptic moisture will advect in from the south on Friday night into Saturday ahead of the surface low. An abundance of upper level support looks to be in play with this system . as a strong upper level jet passes through the flow. As mentioned above, at the end of the short term . will have to keep an eye out for some p-type issues, as warm advection should cause us to flirt with some warmer temps aloft. Either way, it should be rather unpleasant Friday night into Saturday. As we get in behind the system on Saturday night into Sunday, with some wraparound moisture on the backside of the system . and some colder air aloft moving in . will look for lake effect potential to return to Northern Michigan.

Beyond Saturday . will be watching the pattern turn more ridgy across the CONUS/eastern CONUS going into the start of next week. May have to watch out for some niblets trying to pass through the flow at times, with some uncertainty in how strong the ridge will ultimately end up being That being said. temperatures will probably become the main story going forward, unless signals dampen in the next few days.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 646 PM EST Tue Dec 7 2021

Lake enhanced snow will continue to increase at PLN, mbL and TVC overnight into Wednesday morning before waning by afternoon. Cigs/Vsbys will be mainly MVFR but IFR vsbys are possible at times. At APN only a few flurries are expected. Generally low end VFR cigs/vsbys are then expected Wednesday afternoon. Winds will be light and variable through early Wednesday then pick up and be a bit gusty out of the northwest Wednesday morning and afternoon.

MARINE. Issued at 343 PM EST Tue Dec 7 2021

High pressure is passing to our south today, with winds decreasing somewhat as they back toward the sw. Sw winds linger into tonight, though will start to veer nw toward morning, as low pressure develops over northern MI. Relatively light nw to w breezes hold for Thursday and Thu night.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until noon EST Wednesday for MIZ016-017- 020-025-031-099. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EST Wednesday for LSZ321.

NEAR TERM . JZ SHORT TERM . FEF LONG TERM . FEF AVIATION . AS MARINE . JZ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 4 mi24 min SSW 6G8 22°F 1019.6 hPa (-1.4)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 19 mi44 min SW 8.9G13 20°F 1020.3 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 36 mi44 min WSW 6G11 18°F 1021 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Caro, Tuscola Area Airport, MI24 mi29 minN 010.00 miFair15°F11°F82%1020.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCFS

Wind History from CFS (wind in knots)
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