Sunrise 6:17 AM   Sunset 8:49 PM Moonrise 5:19 AM   Moonset 9:04 PM

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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 330 Am Edt Wed May 8 2024
Today - West winds 15 to 20 knots veering to the northwest late in the afternoon. Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. Tonight - North winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight. Waves occasionally around 5 feet. Thursday - Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet. Thursday night - Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and overnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.

LHZ400
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 080935 CCA AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Gaylord MI 535 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Lingering rain this morning.

- Patchy frost possible Thursday night.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 329 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Developing surface low pressure currently centered over the Straits region early this morning with textbook comma head of precipitation pinwheeling over eastern upper, northern Lake Michigan into northwest lower. This low pretty quickly ejects east this morning, pulling associated showers along with it. Attention then shifts to another area of low pressure progged to trek across the mid-MS Valley late tonight into the Ohio Valley on Thursday, which latest trends over the last 24 hours suggest much, if not all, notable precipitation associated with that system remains to our south.

Forecast Details:

Focus for additional rain showers this morning largely exists near and north of M-72 with the highest probabilities and associated greatest additional QPF near and north of M-32. Chances wane from northwest to southeast later this morning through early afternoon with even some late day peeks of sun anticipated, especially over the southern half of the forecast area. Highs ranging from the 50s far north to near 70 degrees close to Saginaw Bay.

While by and large, a general lull in precipitation is anticipated this evening and overnight, suppose there's just enough mid-level energy and low-level moisture support for a few additional isolated showers to percolate at times. Pretty tough to say with much certainty if and where these showers actually develop -- current confidence is highest across the U.P., Straits and tip of the mitt -- and as a result, it'll be hard not to have some splotchy low PoPs from time to time later today into tonight in those areas. By very late tonight, focus transitions to low pressure to our southwest with an expected area of associated rain trekking across northern IL and southern WI. This tries to make inroads into far southwest sections by 12z Thursday, but latest trends favor that precip remaining across southern lower Michigan. Lows tonight pretty close to normal for early May -- largely in the 40s area-wide.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 329 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Almost a blocky pattern setting up over the central continent...with anomalous easterly flow north of the Canadian border between elongated anomalous low centered over the Dakotas (attendant 987mb surface low here)...and ridging over central/northern Canada. Sharp trough axis swinging through the Upper Great Lakes...driving surface cyclogenesis over northern Lake MI attm...well north of the warm front that led to severe weather across the southern portion of the state. Moisture axis still holding on across the EUP and parts of northern Lower attm.

Blocky pattern doesn't appear to last long...with trough energy riding over the western ridge...helping punt overall troughing out of the Midwest for a time, though not before driving a surface low across the OH Valley. Shortwave ridge axis slips in for Thursday night and Friday, bringing seasonably pleasant conditions (minus threat of frost Thursday night) to the region. Aforementioned trough energy drops into the Upper Great Lakes Friday evening/night with clipper-type vibes to keep the dreary/rainy idea in play into the start of the weekend. High pressure may try to sneak in Saturday night, but it appears another clipper-like system slips in for later Sunday into Monday. A fair bit of uncertainty in the evolution of the pattern for early next week, as guidance is struggling to nail down how amplified troughing may end up over the Great Lakes region...though attm, signals seem to be trending a little less dramatic on the cold (which, to be honest, is probably just as well for agricultural interests and everyday gardeners this time of year).

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Patchy frost possible Thursday night...
Latest guidance coming in early this morning seems to be trending further south and east with the wave riding up into the OH Valley Thursday. Aside from diminishing precip chances across most of the region north of M-55...this idea could have an impact on overnight lows for Thursday night. If high pressure is a little quicker to move in Thursday during the daylight hours, it could mean clearer skies and perhaps lighter winds that would be more conducive to overnight temps approaching the freezing mark. For now, I have trended things a little more toward this idea, with coolest temps likely the further north and west you go, as there should be less clouds from the OH Valley system up there, and a greater shot at decoupling winds overnight. Highs in the upper 50s to around 60 Thursday would, with a standard diurnal temp swing for early May, suggest lows in the mid 30s would be possible...with a risk area potentially in the portion of our CWA most sensitive to frost.
However
there are some caveats that need mentioning
1) There are some signals that winds may not fully decouple Thursday night, which, if it were to come to fruition, would mean more mixing and warmer overnight lows that could preclude most temperature issues.
2) There are also signals there could be enough boundary layer moisture around to either a) keep some clouds around overnight and preclude best radiational cooling... and/or b) keep temperatures from bottoming out as low as they could if we had a drier airmass in place. This latter idea is particularly worth noting given the recent 1+ inch rainfall...though for better or worse, given that a lot of the soil up here is sandy, it may not take long to lose some of the moisture that might otherwise hang around and lead to warmer lows (and perhaps fog).

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 534 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

Low pressure continues to cross northern Michigan with the most numerous lingering rain showers north of a line from TVC to APN.
Those shower chances diminish through the morning and midday.
MVFR to IFR CIGs associated with these showers expected to slowly improve to VFR through the afternoon and evening. Winds largely out of the northwest today -- gusty at times this afternoon, before veering out of the northeast tonight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ349.

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