Sunrise 5:43 AM   Sunset 7:56 PM Moonrise 1:20 AM   Moonset 9:31 AM

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SLZ024 Expires:202404292115;;321229 Fzus61 Kbuf 291423 Glfsl
forecast for the saint lawrence river including the thousand islands region national weather service buffalo ny 1023 am edt Mon apr 29 2024
slz022-024-292115- saint lawrence river from cape vincent to saint regis 1023 am edt Mon apr 29 2024
This afternoon - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Tonight - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers late in the evening. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Tuesday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers with a morning Thunderstorm possible.Tuesday night - Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming north. Showers likely in the evening, then just a chance of showers overnight. Wednesday - North winds less than 10 knots becoming south. Partly to mostly cloudy. Thursday - Southwest winds 10 knots or less. Partly to mostly cloudy. Friday - Southeast winds 10 knots or less. A chance of showers.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

SLZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBTV 291932 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 332 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

SYNOPSIS
After light showers earlier today, more widespread precipitation is expected across the region late tonight night into tomorrow with showers likely, followed by another batch of afternoon showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder. Quieter weather is expected for the latter half of the week, with a warming trend across the region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 328 PM EDT Monday...After some light showers earlier in the day, a brief lull in precipitation is expected this evening before the next round of precipitation associated with a warm front enters the region. Overnight low temperatures will be seasonably mild, generally in the 40s, due to increased cloud cover associated with the incoming precipitation.

Precipitable water values with this system will near or exceed an inch, which is above the 90th percentile for this time of year, as a plume of moisture is transported from the Gulf of Mexico. Model guidance is still a little uncertain in regards to where the axis of the heaviest precipitation sets up, whether across northern New York or a bit further north of the international border. Some rumbles of thunder will be possible with some elevated instability, although it looks to be pretty limited based on model soundings and the latest CAM guidance. Precipitation will continue into Tuesday night, although it will begin to decrease in areal coverage. For additional details on hydro, please see the discussion below.

A large temperature gradient is expected Tuesday afternoon, with portions of the Northeast Kingdom struggling to warm above 50 while portions of the St. Lawrence Valley warm into the mid 60s. Fairly mild overnight lows are in store Tuesday night with lingering precipitation and cloud cover, with temperatures in the 40s to near 50.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 328 PM EDT Monday...Quieter weather is generally expected for the latter half of the work week with lower precipitation chances, but showers cannot be ruled out for Wed/Thu. Lingering low level moisture combined with an increase in PWATs and a shortwave passing north of the border through central Quebec may provide enough support for a few showers Wednesday, and another stronger shortwave following a similar path though perhaps a little farther south with do the same Thursday afternoon. Best chances Wednesday will be across central/southern zones, while the chance will exist more across northern areas Thursday. Both days are by no means a wash out, with expected QPF less than a tenth of an inch each day.
Wednesday will be the coolest day of the period with highs mid/upper 50s north to lower 60s south, but temperatures will trend much warmer for the next few days with 925mb temps in the plus teens Celsius supporting highs in the mid 60s to low 70s. Friday will be the pick of the week with an upper ridge directly overhead and no precipitation expected.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 328 PM EDT Monday...Looking into the upcoming weekend, surface high pressure and upper level ridging look to remain in place through much of Saturday which will keep precipitation chances low and likely decay shortwave energy ejecting out from a strongly occluded low moving north through the western Great Lakes. Better chances for showers comes Saturday night onward as the ridge breaks down and additional shortwave energy moving east from the Great Lakes will interact with a modest stream of enhanced PWATs with origins from the Gulf of Mexico. At this time is appears the highest PWATs >1.5" will remain south of the region across the mid-Atlantic states, so the risk for heavy rain remains low. Temps through the period remain fairly close to normal with highs mainly in the 60s, and lows in the mid 40s to low 50s.

AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Through 18Z Tuesday...Primarily VFR conditions across the region this afternoon, with the exception of KSLK and KRUT with ceilings at or below 1000 ft. Precipitation this afternoon has ended, with a brief dry period before the next round approaches.
Approaching 06z Tuesday, precipitation will spread over the region from southwest to northeast. Rainfall rates may be moderate in some of the heavier showers, with reduced visibilities possible. MVFR ceilings will be possible after this precipitation, especially across northern New York terminals. Winds this afternoon into the evening will become variable and terrain driven, generally less than 10 knots.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

HYDROLOGY
There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for Tuesday into Wednesday over the Adirondacks and much of Vermont. The northern half of our forecast area received a respectable amount of rain Sunday, with widespread 0.50" to 1.00" across the northern Champlain Valley and the northern half of Vermont. The southern half and St. Lawrence Valley mainly saw variable readings between a few hundredths and 0.25".

Beginning overnight tonight into tomorrow night, multiple rounds of precipitation will be possible as a warm front lifts northward. Along the front, moderate to locally heavy rain is possible, producing 0.2 to 0.5 inch of rain. After some clearing, afternoon showers and a few thunderstorms are possible.
Multiple rounds of showers could produce an additional third to two thirds of an inch. Locally higher rainfall amounts will be possible. With some trees still dormant and lingering summit level snow, there could be some areal flooding on low lying farm fields, poor urban drainage basins, and across ditches. Dry conditions over the last couple weeks has allowed river levels to fall. At this time, it does not appear that there will be enough precipitation and snowmelt for river flooding, but we will closely monitor.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

Troy
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Mon -- 01:12 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:05 AM EDT     0.88 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:47 AM EDT     5.69 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:01 PM EDT     0.76 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:01 PM EDT     4.42 feet High Tide
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Troy, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

Albany
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Mon -- 01:12 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:54 AM EDT     0.88 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:39 AM EDT     5.69 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:51 PM EDT     0.76 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:53 PM EDT     4.42 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Albany, New York, Tide feet

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